2019-05-19 - MEBET365 - FREE Tips For Betting, Football Bet of the Day

ATP Rome Tips: Nadal value to lift the trophy

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<strong style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Nadal eases past Tsitsipas in different match-up</span></strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As suspected, Rafa Nadal was able to reverse his loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas here in <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">slower conditions</strong> to those which he lost on in Madrid last week, and covered the game handicap at even money for us in a straight-set victory as we continue a solid week in the Italian capital.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Yesterday, we discussed Nadal's issues in quick conditions which (along with poor break point performance) contributed to that loss in Madrid, and how slower conditions would make it a <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">completely different match-up</strong> in Rome. The pre-match market didn't quite factor those thoughts into it's pricing, so it was a pleasing victory. Indeed, Tsitsipas' comments post-match about the conditions weren't far from a carbon copy of my pre-match assertions yesterday.</span></span></div>
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<strong style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Nadal value given hold/break edge</span></strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Today, Nadal faces Djokovic in an attempt to win his first clay tournament of the season. This is <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">virtually unheard of</strong> for Rafa by this stage of the campaign, but he's priced up <span style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">at <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="4/7">1.59</span></span> by the market to lift the trophy this afternoon.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I actually think this is solid value. Across the last 12 months, there's almost an 11% advantage in Nadal's favour when looking at their <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">combined hold/break percentages</strong>, and while Djokovic is 8-2 in their head to head in the last three years, both of Nadal's wins were on clay, in Madrid in 2017 and Rome in 2018.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">That match last year saw Nadal priced around the <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="1/5">1.20</span> mark, and while Djokovic had his struggles at that stage last season, it's a <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">rather large gap</strong> between that price and today's market pricing. Interestingly, the head to head matches between the two players are rather polarised.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Djokovic has dominated on hard and indoor hard, holding over 85% to Nadal's 70%, and winning around 80% of their matches, but Nadal has a <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">strong edge on his favoured clay</strong>, holding 74% to 68% and having a 15-7 lead on the surface when disregarding their first meeting where Djokovic was ranked outside the top 50.</span></span></div>
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<strong style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Fatigue also a concern for Djokovic</span></strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">So, it's pretty fair to suggest that the head to head series is <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">very surface dependent</strong>, and after two consecutive three-setters taking almost five and a half hours between them, Djokovic has played considerably more time this week - and have accumulated more fatigue - than Nadal who has practically breezed through his matches so far.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expect the <span style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Nadal -2.5 game handicap market</span> to settle in the high <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="4/5">1.80</span>s on the Exchange, and either this, or simply <span style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">the <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="4/7">1.59</span></span> about Nadal <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">to be celebrating tonight</strong> look to be the value spots for today's final.</span></span></div>
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ATP Rome Tips: Nadal value to lift the trophy

Nadal eases past Tsitsipas in different match-up As suspected, Rafa Nadal was able to reverse his loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas here in slo...

07:13

Rugby League NRL ROUND 10 TIPS

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<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Melbourne Storm ($1.24) v Wests Tigers ($3.85)</span></span></h2>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Storm to batter Tigers </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Melbourne and Wests both enjoyed big wins in Magic Round and will be looking to keep that good form going in Thursday night’s clash at AAMI Park. The Storm easily brushed aside a terrible Parra side, running in 11 tries in a 64-10 thumping at Suncorp Stadium. 10 Storm players ran for 100 metres or more in a dominant effort, with the Storm scoring seven second half tries. The Tigers’ 30-4 win was just as routine, as they raced out to a 24-0 lead after 18 minutes against a woeful Panthers outfit. The second half was much more subdued as far as points scoring went, but the Tigers didn’t concede in the second stanza. Jahrome Hughes and Curtis Scott are forced changes for Melbourne through injury. Speedster Ryan Papenhuyzen gets his first start at fullback, while Marion Seve is in the centres. For the Tigers, its just the one change, with Josh Aloiai back on the bench for Oliver Clark. As part of a number of upsets against big names last season, the Tigers actually beat the Storm twice in the opening five rounds by two and one point respectively in low scoring encounters. The Wolf didn’t expect the Storm to rip apart the Eels so effortlessly and they looked to have gotten their ruthlessness back. The Tigers were easily beaten by the Chooks just two weeks ago and this match might be a similar outcome against quality opposition.</span></div>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Wolf Facts</span></span></h3>
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<li style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Round Nine was the first time the Tigers had scored a try in their opening 20 minutes this season. They laid on four tries in 17 minutes versus the Panthers.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Tigers beat the Storm both times last season with a combined winning margin of three points (R2 10-8 in Melbourne, R5 11-10 in Auckland).</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Curtis Scott ran for 281 metres against the Eels, making it the most run metres in Round 9 and the best for a Storm player this season so far. One hundred of those metres was his brilliant length of the field try.</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">H2H: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Storm -10.5 ($1.90)</span></span></span><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /></span><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">Value: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Storm 11-20 ($3.50)</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Penrith Panthers ($1.67) v New Zealand Warriors ($2.15)</span></span></h2>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Warriors to heap more misery on Panthers</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Another week, another loss for the Panthers. This time the team from the foot of the mountains were crunched by the Tigers 30-4, after beating Wests just weeks earlier in golden point. An insipid opening 20 minutes where they conceded a 24-0 start made it nearly impossible for Penrith to recover. Under pressure coach Ivan Cleary has swung the axe at selection, with Wayde Egan, Josh Mansour, Reagan campbell-Gillard and Caleb Aekins all either out or not in the starting 17. Dylan Edwards, debutant Brian To’o and Sione Katoa are among the inclusions. It was a rare win in Brisbane last weekend for the New Zealand Warriors as they toppled St George 26-18. It was even more impressive for the fact the Kiwi side was down 18-6 at half time before scoring four tries in the second half to run out eight point winners. Stephen Kearney has stuck fat with the starting 17 that did the job a week ago, with Isaac Luke and Adam Blair named as reserves. The Panthers have owned this fixture in recent times, particularly in Penrith, winning four of five overall. The Wolf can’t risk the Panthers as favourites on current form though. They are a bad team with little chemistry and not much upside, especially at the price on offer. Take the Warriors in this match of two unpredictable teams.</span></div>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Wolf Facts</span></span></h3>
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<li style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Warriors last beat Penrith at Panthers Stadium in Round 15 2012, 30 points to 16.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Ken Maumalo sits in second spot with most runs with 155 making 1,492 metres. Averaging 9.6 metres per run. He is the leading back in this stat.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Panthers woes continue with not making much ground in their runs. The Panthers average 1,335 running metres per game which has them sitting last in this stat, the Roosters lead with 1,582 running metres per game.</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">H2H: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Warriors ($2.15)</span></span></span><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">Value: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Warriors 1-10 ($3.30)</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Brisbane Broncos ($2.70) v Sydney Roosters ($1.45)</span></span></h2>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Chooks to ease past Broncos </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Roosters are one of a trio of teams at the top of the table and they confirmed that with a 30-24 win against the Raiders last Sunday in challenging circumstances. After racing out to a 30-6 lead, a host of the Chooks’ big guns including Latrell Mitchell and Boyd Cordner were down and out with injuries, but the side held on for a win. The Broncos also got in the winner’s circle in Magic Round with a 26-10 triumph against Manly. A makeshift halves combo for the Sea Eagles was outgunned in the second half, as youngster Payne Haas had a field day with 202 run metres. It was just weeks ago that the Roosters trounced the Broncos 36-4 at the SCG, running rampant in the first half, leading 22-0 at the break. Brisbane has struggled to step up to the plate against the top teams this season, losing by double digits to the Storm, Bunnies and Chooks. Jack Bird’s ACL injury sees him lost for the season, while new hooker James Segeyaro has been named in the reserves for Brisbane. Chooks captain Boyd Cordner is out with concussion, with Lindsay Collins coming onto the bench.  The Wolf sees no reason to jump off the Roosters bandwagon, and despite not covering last round against the Raiders, they are being given a one try start in this one and their defence can shut down Brisbane’s attack on the road.</span></div>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Wolf Facts</span></span></h3>
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<li class="column" style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Roosters are nine from nine wins in the second 20-minute period (20 mins to 40 mins) of their matches.</span></li>
<li class="column" style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Broncos lead the competition in tackles breaks with 29.7 tackle breaks per game.</span></li>
<li class="column" style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">James Tedesco now leads the competition in running metres. Teddy has now run 1,657 metres so far this season off 144 runs, averaging 11.5 metres per run.</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">H2H: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Roosters -6 ($1.90)</span></span></span><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">Value: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Roosters -6 / Under 42.5 ($3.20)</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Gold Coast Titans ($1.63) v Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.25)</span></span></h2>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Dogs to get off the bottom  </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Two Magic Round losers clash on Saturday afternoon when the Titans host the Dogs. Neither side can take a trick this season and despite being in each of their respective game’s last round, lacked an 80 minute performance. The Titans actually led at half time against the Sharks before being overpowered in the second half and losing 26-18 after failing to register a point in the second 40 minutes. The Dogs found themselves in a 16-0 hole against Newcastle before a pair of second half tries threatened to get them back into the game, only for Kalyn Ponga to race away for a late try and consign the Dogs to a 12 point loss that keeps them on the bottom of the table. Titans full back Michael Gordon’s leg injury means utility AJ Brimson moves back to his preferred position of full back, with Tyrone Roberts in the halves. Dean Pay has made changes in a bid to save a sinking season for the Dogs, with Kieran Foran in at five-eighth and Jack Cogger at half back. Lachlan Lewis and Kerrod Holland continue to be on the outer, named in the reserves. Neither side has been able to get much of an advantage on the other in recent meetings, with results flip flopping. Both teams are in the bottom four for points scored and in the top four for points conceded and with little to separate them, The Wolf sees the value in the underdog, with the Dogs certainly not unaccustomed to winning on the Coast.</span></div>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Wolf Facts</span></span></h3>
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<li style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The head to head between these two sides has them evenly split with 8 wins each from their 16 games.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Bulldogs lead the competition in errors making 8.2 errors per game.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Jai Arrow is the second best forward in terms of runs. He has made 150 runs so far this season which sits him fifth overall. David Klemmer is leading (and obviously the leading forward) with 164 runs this year.</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">H2H: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Dogs ($2.25)</span></span></span><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">Value: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Dogs 1-12 ($3.40)</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">North Queensland Cowboys ($1.64) v Parramatta Eels ($2.25)</span></span></h2>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Eels road woes set to continue    </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It was a horror show for the Eels against Melbourne last Saturday night as they conceded 11 tries and 64 points in a 54 point thrashing at Suncorp Stadium. The good news for them is that they can put that loss behind them with two points against the Cowboys, who are struggling for consistency this season. At 3-6, the Cows look a spent force when it comes to finals, but few teams will envy a trip to Townsville to play them, given their decent forward pack. A 32-16 loss to Souths in Magic Round flattered the Queenslanders, as they were down 16-0 in the first half and always second best. Jake Granville has been named to start at hooker after starting on the bench against Souths in the only change for North Queensland. Brad Arthur has responded to last round’s beat down, with Maika Sivo and Michael Jennings out. George Jennings, Bevan French and Will Smith are named among the reserves. The teams split their two meetings last season, with the Cows thumping the Eels by 38 points in North Queensland in Johnathan Thurston’s last home game. The home side won’t have that sort of motivation in this one, but The Wolf knows the Eels have been atrocious away from Sydney this season and expects that trend to continue.</span></div>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Wolf Facts</span></span></h3>
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<li style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Both sides are the best-behaved teams in the competition. The Eels concede 4.7 penalties per game, ranking them first whilst the Cowboys concede 5.3 penalties per game ranking them second.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Cowboys sit last in line breaks with only making 2.7 line breaks per game. The Eels on the other hand sit second with 4.9 line breaks per game.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Eels have only notched up two wins in their last ten outings at 1300Smiles Stadium.</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">H2H: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Cowboys -3.5 ($1.90)</span></span></span><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">Value: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Cowboys 13+ ($3.30)</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Canberra Raiders ($2.15) v South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.67)</span></span></h2>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Bunnies to upstage Raiders </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It’s back to back top four clashes for the Raiders as they host the Bunnies in Canberra on Saturday night. Two of Canberra’s losses this season have been to sides in the top four (Storm, Roosters), while their other loss was to the fifth placed Sea Eagles. A win on Saturday night would go a long way towards stamping their top four credentials, while a loss might have them in the pretender category. A 30-24 loss to the Chooks flattered the Raiders, who ran in the last 18 points against an injury ravaged Tricolours side. The Bunnies took care of business in Magic Round by dispatching the lowly Cowboys by 16 points. There are few changes for either side, with Jordan Rapana’s knee injury the big news, with Bailey Simonssen replacing him. Corey Allan moves to fullback for the injured Alex Johnston. The Bunnies have rarely played in the nation’s capital in recent seasons, with just three games at GIO Stadium since 2011. They have won two of those clashes, but lost last season’s round 24 encounter 24-12. A 24 point run from midway through the first half got the job done for Canberra in one of their most impressive wins of the season. Given their ladder position, its unsurprising that this game pits two of the competition’s best attacking and defensive teams against one another. The Wolf knows Souths are the real deal, but Canberra is yet to prove that. Until they beat quality opposition then favouring the side with the runs on the board is wise.</span></div>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Wolf Facts</span></span></h3>
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<li style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Both sides weaknesses seem to be the opening 20-minute period of the second half. Both Canberra and Souths have three wins, three losses and three draws in this time frame.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This game will see a lot of dummy half scoots. The Raiders average 15.4 dummy half runs per game which sees them first in this stat with the Rabbitohs second with 14.4 dummy half runs per game.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Damien Cook now sits second in try assists. He has now 12 try assists, just one behind Roosters Luke Keary.</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">H2H: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Rabbitohs -4 ($1.90)</span></span></span><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">Value: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Rabbitohs 1-12 / Over 41.5 ($5.10)</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">St George Illawarra Dragons ($1.66) v Newcastle Knights ($2.20)</span></span></h2>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Knights to upstage Dragons </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Knights have sprung to life with three wins on the trot and will look to extend that to four when they play the Dragons in Mudgee on Sunday afternoon. The two sides played a memorable match in round four, with a Corey Norman field goal late in golden point sealing a one-point win for St George. Since then, the Dragons have been patchy to say the least. They have been dreadful in their past two second halves against Parramatta and New Zealand, losing both games. The Knights are in ninth spot on the table, while the Dragons sit in tenth, so there is plenty on the line in this game. A three-game skid has not meant Dragons coach Paul McGregor has made wholesale changes to his side, with Korbin Sims potentially joining the fold as the only change. Newcastle’s lack of injuries and winning form has meant they stay unchanged. They are gunning for four wins in a row for the first time since 2015. The Wolf knows the mental aspect of the game is important and the Knights will be out for revenge after losing at home in round four and blowing a number of chances to win the game. The Dragons look fragile of late, and dropping away in the second half of games is never a good sign. Newcastle for the upset.</span></div>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Wolf Facts</span></span></h3>
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<li style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This is the first clash between these two sides at Mudgee’s Glen Willow Stadium. The Dragons are one win from three starts at this venue.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Dragons opening 20-minute period is their best with seven wins in that time frame.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Mitchell Pearce leads the competition for kicks. He has kicked 128 times and is second in kicking metres with 4,163 metres. Adam Reynolds leads this stat with 4,444 kick metres.</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">H2H: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Knights ($2.20)</span></span></span><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">Value: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Knights +3.5 / Over 40.5 ($3.95)</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Cronulla Sharks ($1.52) v Manly Sea Eagles ($2.50)</span></span></h2>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Bunnies too good for Cowboys     </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Sharks and Sea Eagles have both started the season well, with five wins from nine starts, but one will be pushing for the top four after their clash on Sunday and the other will be battling to stay in the top eight. PointsBet Stadium holds no fears for the Sea Eagles though, who have won a staggering eight times in their last 10 visits to the Shire. A 26-10 loss to the Broncos a week ago came in part due to a host of changes to the Sea Eagles spine that certainly upset their flow in attack and defence. Lachlan Croker and Kane Elgey resume in the halves this week after Curtis Sironen deputised a week ago. There are no changes for Cronulla, with Sione Katoa and Scott Sorensen named as reserves. The Wolf loves following trends and the Eagles dominance against the Sharks is one that takes the eye. Both sides are solid in defence and attack, with little separating them statistically. Last season, when the Sea Eagles were not a finals contender, they produced a stunning 33-32 golden point win against Cronulla thanks to a Daly Cherry Evans field goal. This match could be just as close.</span></div>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Wolf Facts</span></span></div>
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<li style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Sea Eagles are eight wins from their last ten games at PointsBet Stadium.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Sharks second 20-minute period in the first half seems to be their downfall. They have only won once in this time period. But the last 20 minutes of the match is when they excel. They have won this 20 minute period five times.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Sharks like ball movement. On average they pass 227.6 times a game which has them first in passing and second in offloading with 11.8 offloads per game.</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">H2H: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Sea Eagles ($2.50)</span></span></span><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">Value: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Sea Eagles ($3.80)</span></span></span></span></div>

Rugby League NRL ROUND 10 TIPS

Melbourne Storm ($1.24) v Wests Tigers ($3.85) Storm to batter Tigers Melbourne and Wests both enjoyed big wins in Magic Round and...

07:08

AFL ROUND 9 TIPS

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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">West Coast Eagles ($1.30) v Melbourne Demons ($3.55)</span></h2>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Plucky Dees could pose plenty of problems for Eagles </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">A preliminary final rematch from last season opens round 9 action when the Eagles host the Dees. The Demons’ 66 point hammering in Perth late last season has been a loss they haven’t recovered from if their form this season is any indication. With just three wins to their name, they will be looking for a massive upset when they travel west to play the Eagles. The Dees scraped over the line in dramatic fashion against the Suns last round, with a Tom McDonald point in the dying seconds enough to seal a miraculous Demons win. They have now put together consecutive narrow victories, but this week’s opponent is sure to provide a sterner test for the red and blue. West Coast dispatched of the Saints by three goals last weekend and it was a six goal to two third term that did most of the damage. Josh Kennedy looked back to his threatening best as he kicked two goals. Four Eagles players booted two goals apiece, while Liam Ryan had five shots on goal for just one major. Prior to last season’s finals loss, Melbourne had won two in a row in Perth against West Coast. The Dees have struggled to score this season, ranking second last in the competition with just 556 points scored. The good news for them is that the Eagles are third last in points scoring 596 points. The Wolf thinks the Dees will take a lot from their heroics in recent weeks and given the lack of scoring prowess among these sides, taking Melbourne and the sizeable points start is the play.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">H2H: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Demons +21.5 ($1.90)</span></span></span><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">Value: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Demons 1-39 ($4.25)</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">Collingwood Magpies ($1.21) v St Kilda Saints ($4.50)</span></h2>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Magnificent seven for Pies  </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Collingwood scraped by arch rivals Carlton in a see-sawing match at the ‘G last round and will look to notch their sixth straight win when they host the Saints on Saturday afternoon. The Wolf mentioned last week that the Pies and Blues have played close games recently and their battle last weekend was no different, with Carlton leading half way through the final term. Some late Jordan De Goey magic and Magpies ruthlessness in attack snared them the win. The Saints weren’t as fortunate last Saturday night against the Eagles, trailing for the entire game and losing by three goals. In their only meeting last season, the Pies were 28 point winners, with Brodie Grundy a standout with 23 disposals, 10 contested possessions and 42 hitouts. Jordan De Goey booted six goals as the Pies kicked away in the second half. In the past five seasons, the Saints have a 5-5 record at the ‘G and beat the Dees as big outsiders at the home of footy just a month ago. Three losses on the trot has The Wolf concerned though, as the Saints look to be trending downwards, while the Pies keep finding ways to win. Collingwood looked a step slow last week and still got the job done and will be sharper this week.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">H2H: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Pies -29.5 ($1.91)</span></span></span><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">Value: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Pies 40-59 ($4.50)</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Crows in an upset </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The Crows edged the Showdown last week, despite a late scare with the Power booting six final term goals to make things interesting, before Adelaide held on to win by 20 points. Four wins in a row for the Crows has seen them rocket up the table to third after a 1-3 start. They travel to the Gabba to play the Lions, who have enjoyed plenty of success in Queensland this season. With just one loss against Collingwood to their name at the Gabba, Brisbane has made its home ground somewhat of a fortress. Their away form leaves plenty to be desired though and despite a strong start in Ballarat against the Dogs, they were overpowered in the second half to lose by 16 points. The Crows have won seven on the trot against Brisbane at all venues, with a five point win in round 18 last season the closest margin across those games. The Wolf has had some success backing teams on big winning streaks against their opponents and despite the Lions’ recent off years, the Crows have had their measure. The Crows should squeeze past Brisbane in a close one and offer good value.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">H2H: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Crows ($2.05)</span></span></span><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">Value: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Crows 1-39 ($2.60)</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">Geelong Cats ($1.21) v Western Bulldogs ($4.50)</span></h2>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Cats to prevail against Dogs  </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Geelong will look to extend its one game buffer at the top of the table when it hosts the Western Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon. The Cats dispatched of North by four goals last Sunday to notch their fourth win on the trot, while the Dogs improved to 4-4 on the season with a 16 point win against Brisbane in Ballarat. Joel Selwood was a late scratching against the Roos with a leg injury and will be touch and go this week, while Gary Ablett free to play after being given the all clear by the MRP for two incidents against the Roos. Ruckman Tim English should be back for the Dogs after missing against Brisbane, as the Dogs went for the unconventional no ruckman option against the Lions. The Dogs lost 11 in a row against Geelong before a two point win in round 15 last season. They have a woeful record in Geelong, losing all six of their matches by the bay in the past 10 seasons. The Wolf has found it hard to not back the Cats given their recent form and they have been covering machines all season long. There’s no reason to stray from that winning formula this week.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">H2H: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Cats -29.5 ($1.90)</span></span></span><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /></span><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">Value: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Cats 60+ ($4.75)</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">Essendon Bombers ($1.41) v Fremantle Dockers ($2.95)</span></h2>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Bombers to get past Dockers in low scoring match </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Essendon is staring at four straight losses if they can’t beat the Dockers as big favourites on Saturday night. The Dons lost to the bottom placed Swans last round by five points with a shot after the siren by David Myers from 55 metres out not making the distance. Fremantle is on a two game losing streak after a 25 point defeat at the hands of Richmond last Sunday. The Dockers couldn’t get past a wounded Tigers outfit that was missing a number of key players through injury, giving up 100+ points for the first time this campaign. The last meeting between these sides was in round 18 last year, with the Bombers prevailing by 29 points. The final scoreline flattered Freo, who had just 15 scoring shots to the Bombers’ 34. Orazio Fantasia was unstoppable in that match, booting five goals and netting three Brownlow votes. He will be out of this one through injury as the forward star has been struggling for fitness all season. The Wolf knows neither team has lit up the scoreboard consistently in 2019, but home ground advantage and a desperation to not drop to 3-6 will see the Bombers prevail narrowly.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">H2H: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Dockers +16.5 ($1.91)</span></span></span><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /></span><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">Value: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Bombers 1-24 ($3.10)</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">North Melbourne Kangaroos ($1.76) v Sydney Swans ($2.07)</span></h2>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Roos to hop out of Hobart with a win  </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The Roos and Swans meet for just the third time in Hobart on Saturday night, with both teams desperate to get out of the bottom four. It was always going to be an uphill battle for North against the competition leaders and despite never being out of the match, they also never threatened to topple a far slicker Geelong side. Ben Brown’s five goals will give the Roos plenty of heart though, with the big forward looking a lot better in recent weeks. It was win at any cost for Sydney, with Dane Rampe shaking the goal post on David Myers’ final second shot. Luckily for the Swans, that escaped the penalty of a free kick on the goal line and the Swans snuck away with a five point victory. The Swans have won both of their games at Blundstone Arena against North. The Roos have turned the Tasmanian venue into a home away from home, amassing a 13-3 record at the ground,  with two of those losses being to Sydney. Lance Franklin is a chance to play in a big boost for Sydney, while Daniel Menzel has shown strong form in the reserves and could add some scoring punch for Sydney. The Swans have been poor on the road all season long, while North will welcome a trip back to a venue where they love playing at. The Wolf wasn’t inspired by the Swans performance a week ago and is backing North to turn around their poor start to the season.</span></div>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">H2H: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Kangaroos ($1.76)</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Value: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Kangaroos -4.5 / Under 166.5 ($3.60)</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">Port Adelaide Power ($1.19) v Gold Coast Suns ($4.75)</span></h2>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Port to extend winning streak against Suns </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The Power would be left disappointed with their Showdown effort and while they climbed out of a 44 point deficit to get within two goals, they left their run too late and lost by 20 points. Their opponents this week, the Suns, have had their fair share of heartbreaking losses this season and last round was no different. A one-point loss to Melbourne close to the siren was their second one-point loss of the season and fifth game overall decided by a goal or less. They are 2-3 in those matches. It was a return to form of sorts for Stewart Dew’s men though, as they were blown away in their three prior matches. Of concern is the fact that they are on a four game losing streak. The Power have the wood over the Suns in recent times, winning nine matches in a row. Adelaide Oval has not been a happy hunting ground for the Queenslanders either, who are yet to record a victory at the ground in five attempts. Port’s injury list appears to be growing by the week, but Robbie Gray could return from a broken hand if all goes well at training this week. It’s hard to get a read on either side ahead of this one, but The Wolf has seen that Port has clobbered the Suns in recent times and with a mental edge and home ground advantage, should win comfortably.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">H2H: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Power -30.5 ($1.91)</span></span></span><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">Value: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Power 60+ ($4.60)</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">Richmond Tigers ($1.60) v Hawthorn Hawks ($2.35)</span></h2>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Hawks in an upset </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">It goes from bad to worse for the Tigers in terms of injuries, with a host of injuries to come out of their win across the Nullarbor against the Dockers. Toby Nankervis and Jack Riewoldt are the latest to join the injury list, but Daniel Rioli and Nick Vlastuin could be among the ins at the selection table. Hawthorn pulled off a surprise 33-point win against the Giants last weekend. They restricted one of the league’s most potent attacks to just five goals in a dominant second half, where they booted five goals to one. Former skipper Jarryd Roughead impressed in the reserves with five goals and could be in line for an instant recall to the senior side. The Tigers have tasted victory in their last three games against this opponent, but it was the Hawks who dominated this fixture before that. The brown and gold’s four losses have all been by less than four goals this season and The Wolf senses a game against a wounded Tigers team travelling back from Perth could just be the tonic for an upset win.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">H2H: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Hawks ($2.35)</span></span></span><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">Value: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Hawks 1-39 ($3.05)</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">GWS Giants ($1.13) v Carlton Blues ($6)</span></h2>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Tigers to upset Dockers </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The Giants are the rounds shortest priced favourites as they come against the bottom of the ladder Blues on Sunday afternoon in Sydney. GWS suffered a surprise loss to Hawthorn in their last game, with their 2-15 record at the MCG showing they still aren’t up to it on the big stage. The Blues hung around against Collingwood, even taking the lead halfway through the final term before succumbing to some late Magpie brilliance to lose by three goals. The Giants have won five of their past six against the Blues, with Carlton’s only win in that span coming by just one point in 2017. Lachie Whitfield and Shane Mumford could be among those coming into the Giants team this week, with Leon Cameron likely to ring the changes after last week’s blowout loss. GWS has been strong at home all season long and won’t be taking the Blues lightly after last weekend’s loss. The Wolf can sense a big Giants win in this one.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">H2H: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Giants -37.5 ($1.91)</span></span></span><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">Value: <span style="color: #500079;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; touch-action: manipulation;">Giants 60+ ($3.60)</span></span></span></span></div>

AFL ROUND 9 TIPS

West Coast Eagles ($1.30) v Melbourne Demons ($3.55) Plucky Dees could pose plenty of problems for Eagles A preliminary final rema...

07:03

A-League Grand Final Preview: Perth Glory v Sydney FC

<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Perth v Sydney FC | Sunday, May 19, 6.30pm (AEST), Optus Stadium, Perth </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box;" /></b><span style="background-color: white;">A new A-League record could be set when Perth Glory and Sydney FC meet in the A-League Grand Final for the first time.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Perth are appearing in their second grand final in the A-League era, their first was a 2-1 defeat to the Roar in Brisbane in 2012, while the last time Perth hosted a grand final was in the old NSL in 2003.</span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box;" /><span style="background-color: white;">The Premiers’ Plate champions carry plenty of momentum into the A-League decider following their pulsating 3-3 (5-4) win over Adelaide United on penalties. </span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box;" /><span style="background-color: white;">Playmaker </span><span style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Diego Castro</span><span style="background-color: white;"> nabbed a brace, </span><span style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Scott Neville</span><span style="background-color: white;"> added a third in extra time while gloveman </span><span style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Liam Reddy </span><span style="background-color: white;">enjoyed a penalty shootout of a lifetime saving four and scoring his own spot kick as well.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">After putting six past the Melbourne Victory in a one-sided </span><span style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer;">Big Blue</span><span style="background-color: white;">, Sydney FC are riding a wave of momentum.</span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box;" /><span style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Adam le Fondre</span><span style="background-color: white;"> collected a brace including a penalty, while </span><span style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Aaron Calver, Milos Ninkovic</span><span style="background-color: white;"> and </span><span style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Alex Brosque</span><span style="background-color: white;"> all scored one goal apiece. </span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box;" /><span style="background-color: white;">The </span><span style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer;">Sky Blues</span><span style="background-color: white;"> love playing the Glory and have won 10 of their last 11 A-League fixtures against the Glory including a 3-0 victory in their previous finals clash in 2016/17.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
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<div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 8px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Verdict</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />Perth might have a 21-6-3 (70.0 percent) record as a home favourite in the A-League since 2016/17 but Sydney FC leads the Glory 20-3-5 since 2010/11. <br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />There is limited grand final experience in Glory side’s with former Brisbane Roar player <span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ivan Franjic</span> the only player to have played in a grand final.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />Sydney FC, on the other hand, boast a wealth of experience and in their 5th grand final, they’ll have the composure and polish to clinch a fourth A-League grand final victory.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Odds (regular time): Perth <span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer;">2.32</span> Draw <span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer;">3.45</span> Sydney FC <span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer;">3.12</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />Tip: Sydney FC <br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />Correct score: 1-1 (<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer;">6.50</span>) </span></div>
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A-League Grand Final Preview: Perth Glory v Sydney FC

Perth v Sydney FC | Sunday, May 19, 6.30pm (AEST), Optus Stadium, Perth A new A-League record could be set when Perth Glory and Sydney FC ...

10:40

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ATP Rome Tips: Nadal value to lift the trophy

Nadal eases past Tsitsipas in different match-up

As suspected, Rafa Nadal was able to reverse his loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas here in slower conditions to those which he lost on in Madrid last week, and covered the game handicap at even money for us in a straight-set victory as we continue a solid week in the Italian capital.

Yesterday, we discussed Nadal's issues in quick conditions which (along with poor break point performance) contributed to that loss in Madrid, and how slower conditions would make it a completely different match-up in Rome. The pre-match market didn't quite factor those thoughts into it's pricing, so it was a pleasing victory. Indeed, Tsitsipas' comments post-match about the conditions weren't far from a carbon copy of my pre-match assertions yesterday.

Nadal value given hold/break edge

Today, Nadal faces Djokovic in an attempt to win his first clay tournament of the season. This is virtually unheard of for Rafa by this stage of the campaign, but he's priced up at 1.59 by the market to lift the trophy this afternoon.

I actually think this is solid value. Across the last 12 months, there's almost an 11% advantage in Nadal's favour when looking at their combined hold/break percentages, and while Djokovic is 8-2 in their head to head in the last three years, both of Nadal's wins were on clay, in Madrid in 2017 and Rome in 2018.

That match last year saw Nadal priced around the 1.20 mark, and while Djokovic had his struggles at that stage last season, it's a rather large gap between that price and today's market pricing. Interestingly, the head to head matches between the two players are rather polarised.

Djokovic has dominated on hard and indoor hard, holding over 85% to Nadal's 70%, and winning around 80% of their matches, but Nadal has a strong edge on his favoured clay, holding 74% to 68% and having a 15-7 lead on the surface when disregarding their first meeting where Djokovic was ranked outside the top 50.

Fatigue also a concern for Djokovic

So, it's pretty fair to suggest that the head to head series is very surface dependent, and after two consecutive three-setters taking almost five and a half hours between them, Djokovic has played considerably more time this week - and have accumulated more fatigue - than Nadal who has practically breezed through his matches so far.

I expect the Nadal -2.5 game handicap market to settle in the high 1.80s on the Exchange, and either this, or simply the 1.59 about Nadal to be celebrating tonight look to be the value spots for today's final.

Rugby League NRL ROUND 10 TIPS

Melbourne Storm ($1.24) v Wests Tigers ($3.85)

Storm to batter Tigers

Melbourne and Wests both enjoyed big wins in Magic Round and will be looking to keep that good form going in Thursday night’s clash at AAMI Park. The Storm easily brushed aside a terrible Parra side, running in 11 tries in a 64-10 thumping at Suncorp Stadium. 10 Storm players ran for 100 metres or more in a dominant effort, with the Storm scoring seven second half tries. The Tigers’ 30-4 win was just as routine, as they raced out to a 24-0 lead after 18 minutes against a woeful Panthers outfit. The second half was much more subdued as far as points scoring went, but the Tigers didn’t concede in the second stanza. Jahrome Hughes and Curtis Scott are forced changes for Melbourne through injury. Speedster Ryan Papenhuyzen gets his first start at fullback, while Marion Seve is in the centres. For the Tigers, its just the one change, with Josh Aloiai back on the bench for Oliver Clark. As part of a number of upsets against big names last season, the Tigers actually beat the Storm twice in the opening five rounds by two and one point respectively in low scoring encounters. The Wolf didn’t expect the Storm to rip apart the Eels so effortlessly and they looked to have gotten their ruthlessness back. The Tigers were easily beaten by the Chooks just two weeks ago and this match might be a similar outcome against quality opposition.

Wolf Facts

Round Nine was the first time the Tigers had scored a try in their opening 20 minutes this season. They laid on four tries in 17 minutes versus the Panthers.
The Tigers beat the Storm both times last season with a combined winning margin of three points (R2 10-8 in Melbourne, R5 11-10 in Auckland).
Curtis Scott ran for 281 metres against the Eels, making it the most run metres in Round 9 and the best for a Storm player this season so far. One hundred of those metres was his brilliant length of the field try.

H2H: Storm -10.5 ($1.90)
Value: Storm 11-20 ($3.50)

Penrith Panthers ($1.67) v New Zealand Warriors ($2.15)

Warriors to heap more misery on Panthers

Another week, another loss for the Panthers. This time the team from the foot of the mountains were crunched by the Tigers 30-4, after beating Wests just weeks earlier in golden point. An insipid opening 20 minutes where they conceded a 24-0 start made it nearly impossible for Penrith to recover. Under pressure coach Ivan Cleary has swung the axe at selection, with Wayde Egan, Josh Mansour, Reagan campbell-Gillard and Caleb Aekins all either out or not in the starting 17. Dylan Edwards, debutant Brian To’o and Sione Katoa are among the inclusions. It was a rare win in Brisbane last weekend for the New Zealand Warriors as they toppled St George 26-18. It was even more impressive for the fact the Kiwi side was down 18-6 at half time before scoring four tries in the second half to run out eight point winners. Stephen Kearney has stuck fat with the starting 17 that did the job a week ago, with Isaac Luke and Adam Blair named as reserves. The Panthers have owned this fixture in recent times, particularly in Penrith, winning four of five overall. The Wolf can’t risk the Panthers as favourites on current form though. They are a bad team with little chemistry and not much upside, especially at the price on offer. Take the Warriors in this match of two unpredictable teams.

Wolf Facts

The Warriors last beat Penrith at Panthers Stadium in Round 15 2012, 30 points to 16.
Ken Maumalo sits in second spot with most runs with 155 making 1,492 metres. Averaging 9.6 metres per run. He is the leading back in this stat.
Panthers woes continue with not making much ground in their runs. The Panthers average 1,335 running metres per game which has them sitting last in this stat, the Roosters lead with 1,582 running metres per game.

H2H: Warriors ($2.15)Value: Warriors 1-10 ($3.30)

Brisbane Broncos ($2.70) v Sydney Roosters ($1.45)

Chooks to ease past Broncos

The Roosters are one of a trio of teams at the top of the table and they confirmed that with a 30-24 win against the Raiders last Sunday in challenging circumstances. After racing out to a 30-6 lead, a host of the Chooks’ big guns including Latrell Mitchell and Boyd Cordner were down and out with injuries, but the side held on for a win. The Broncos also got in the winner’s circle in Magic Round with a 26-10 triumph against Manly. A makeshift halves combo for the Sea Eagles was outgunned in the second half, as youngster Payne Haas had a field day with 202 run metres. It was just weeks ago that the Roosters trounced the Broncos 36-4 at the SCG, running rampant in the first half, leading 22-0 at the break. Brisbane has struggled to step up to the plate against the top teams this season, losing by double digits to the Storm, Bunnies and Chooks. Jack Bird’s ACL injury sees him lost for the season, while new hooker James Segeyaro has been named in the reserves for Brisbane. Chooks captain Boyd Cordner is out with concussion, with Lindsay Collins coming onto the bench. The Wolf sees no reason to jump off the Roosters bandwagon, and despite not covering last round against the Raiders, they are being given a one try start in this one and their defence can shut down Brisbane’s attack on the road.

Wolf Facts

The Roosters are nine from nine wins in the second 20-minute period (20 mins to 40 mins) of their matches.
The Broncos lead the competition in tackles breaks with 29.7 tackle breaks per game.
James Tedesco now leads the competition in running metres. Teddy has now run 1,657 metres so far this season off 144 runs, averaging 11.5 metres per run.

H2H: Roosters -6 ($1.90)Value: Roosters -6 / Under 42.5 ($3.20)

Gold Coast Titans ($1.63) v Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.25)

Dogs to get off the bottom

Two Magic Round losers clash on Saturday afternoon when the Titans host the Dogs. Neither side can take a trick this season and despite being in each of their respective game’s last round, lacked an 80 minute performance. The Titans actually led at half time against the Sharks before being overpowered in the second half and losing 26-18 after failing to register a point in the second 40 minutes. The Dogs found themselves in a 16-0 hole against Newcastle before a pair of second half tries threatened to get them back into the game, only for Kalyn Ponga to race away for a late try and consign the Dogs to a 12 point loss that keeps them on the bottom of the table. Titans full back Michael Gordon’s leg injury means utility AJ Brimson moves back to his preferred position of full back, with Tyrone Roberts in the halves. Dean Pay has made changes in a bid to save a sinking season for the Dogs, with Kieran Foran in at five-eighth and Jack Cogger at half back. Lachlan Lewis and Kerrod Holland continue to be on the outer, named in the reserves. Neither side has been able to get much of an advantage on the other in recent meetings, with results flip flopping. Both teams are in the bottom four for points scored and in the top four for points conceded and with little to separate them, The Wolf sees the value in the underdog, with the Dogs certainly not unaccustomed to winning on the Coast.

Wolf Facts

The head to head between these two sides has them evenly split with 8 wins each from their 16 games.
The Bulldogs lead the competition in errors making 8.2 errors per game.
Jai Arrow is the second best forward in terms of runs. He has made 150 runs so far this season which sits him fifth overall. David Klemmer is leading (and obviously the leading forward) with 164 runs this year.

H2H: Dogs ($2.25)Value: Dogs 1-12 ($3.40)

North Queensland Cowboys ($1.64) v Parramatta Eels ($2.25)

Eels road woes set to continue

It was a horror show for the Eels against Melbourne last Saturday night as they conceded 11 tries and 64 points in a 54 point thrashing at Suncorp Stadium. The good news for them is that they can put that loss behind them with two points against the Cowboys, who are struggling for consistency this season. At 3-6, the Cows look a spent force when it comes to finals, but few teams will envy a trip to Townsville to play them, given their decent forward pack. A 32-16 loss to Souths in Magic Round flattered the Queenslanders, as they were down 16-0 in the first half and always second best. Jake Granville has been named to start at hooker after starting on the bench against Souths in the only change for North Queensland. Brad Arthur has responded to last round’s beat down, with Maika Sivo and Michael Jennings out. George Jennings, Bevan French and Will Smith are named among the reserves. The teams split their two meetings last season, with the Cows thumping the Eels by 38 points in North Queensland in Johnathan Thurston’s last home game. The home side won’t have that sort of motivation in this one, but The Wolf knows the Eels have been atrocious away from Sydney this season and expects that trend to continue.

Wolf Facts

Both sides are the best-behaved teams in the competition. The Eels concede 4.7 penalties per game, ranking them first whilst the Cowboys concede 5.3 penalties per game ranking them second.
The Cowboys sit last in line breaks with only making 2.7 line breaks per game. The Eels on the other hand sit second with 4.9 line breaks per game.
The Eels have only notched up two wins in their last ten outings at 1300Smiles Stadium.

H2H: Cowboys -3.5 ($1.90)Value: Cowboys 13+ ($3.30)

Canberra Raiders ($2.15) v South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.67)

Bunnies to upstage Raiders

It’s back to back top four clashes for the Raiders as they host the Bunnies in Canberra on Saturday night. Two of Canberra’s losses this season have been to sides in the top four (Storm, Roosters), while their other loss was to the fifth placed Sea Eagles. A win on Saturday night would go a long way towards stamping their top four credentials, while a loss might have them in the pretender category. A 30-24 loss to the Chooks flattered the Raiders, who ran in the last 18 points against an injury ravaged Tricolours side. The Bunnies took care of business in Magic Round by dispatching the lowly Cowboys by 16 points. There are few changes for either side, with Jordan Rapana’s knee injury the big news, with Bailey Simonssen replacing him. Corey Allan moves to fullback for the injured Alex Johnston. The Bunnies have rarely played in the nation’s capital in recent seasons, with just three games at GIO Stadium since 2011. They have won two of those clashes, but lost last season’s round 24 encounter 24-12. A 24 point run from midway through the first half got the job done for Canberra in one of their most impressive wins of the season. Given their ladder position, its unsurprising that this game pits two of the competition’s best attacking and defensive teams against one another. The Wolf knows Souths are the real deal, but Canberra is yet to prove that. Until they beat quality opposition then favouring the side with the runs on the board is wise.

Wolf Facts

Both sides weaknesses seem to be the opening 20-minute period of the second half. Both Canberra and Souths have three wins, three losses and three draws in this time frame.
This game will see a lot of dummy half scoots. The Raiders average 15.4 dummy half runs per game which sees them first in this stat with the Rabbitohs second with 14.4 dummy half runs per game.
Damien Cook now sits second in try assists. He has now 12 try assists, just one behind Roosters Luke Keary.

H2H: Rabbitohs -4 ($1.90)Value: Rabbitohs 1-12 / Over 41.5 ($5.10)

St George Illawarra Dragons ($1.66) v Newcastle Knights ($2.20)

Knights to upstage Dragons

The Knights have sprung to life with three wins on the trot and will look to extend that to four when they play the Dragons in Mudgee on Sunday afternoon. The two sides played a memorable match in round four, with a Corey Norman field goal late in golden point sealing a one-point win for St George. Since then, the Dragons have been patchy to say the least. They have been dreadful in their past two second halves against Parramatta and New Zealand, losing both games. The Knights are in ninth spot on the table, while the Dragons sit in tenth, so there is plenty on the line in this game. A three-game skid has not meant Dragons coach Paul McGregor has made wholesale changes to his side, with Korbin Sims potentially joining the fold as the only change. Newcastle’s lack of injuries and winning form has meant they stay unchanged. They are gunning for four wins in a row for the first time since 2015. The Wolf knows the mental aspect of the game is important and the Knights will be out for revenge after losing at home in round four and blowing a number of chances to win the game. The Dragons look fragile of late, and dropping away in the second half of games is never a good sign. Newcastle for the upset.

Wolf Facts

This is the first clash between these two sides at Mudgee’s Glen Willow Stadium. The Dragons are one win from three starts at this venue.
The Dragons opening 20-minute period is their best with seven wins in that time frame.
Mitchell Pearce leads the competition for kicks. He has kicked 128 times and is second in kicking metres with 4,163 metres. Adam Reynolds leads this stat with 4,444 kick metres.

H2H: Knights ($2.20)Value: Knights +3.5 / Over 40.5 ($3.95)

Cronulla Sharks ($1.52) v Manly Sea Eagles ($2.50)

Bunnies too good for Cowboys

The Sharks and Sea Eagles have both started the season well, with five wins from nine starts, but one will be pushing for the top four after their clash on Sunday and the other will be battling to stay in the top eight. PointsBet Stadium holds no fears for the Sea Eagles though, who have won a staggering eight times in their last 10 visits to the Shire. A 26-10 loss to the Broncos a week ago came in part due to a host of changes to the Sea Eagles spine that certainly upset their flow in attack and defence. Lachlan Croker and Kane Elgey resume in the halves this week after Curtis Sironen deputised a week ago. There are no changes for Cronulla, with Sione Katoa and Scott Sorensen named as reserves. The Wolf loves following trends and the Eagles dominance against the Sharks is one that takes the eye. Both sides are solid in defence and attack, with little separating them statistically. Last season, when the Sea Eagles were not a finals contender, they produced a stunning 33-32 golden point win against Cronulla thanks to a Daly Cherry Evans field goal. This match could be just as close.

Wolf Facts

The Sea Eagles are eight wins from their last ten games at PointsBet Stadium.
The Sharks second 20-minute period in the first half seems to be their downfall. They have only won once in this time period. But the last 20 minutes of the match is when they excel. They have won this 20 minute period five times.
The Sharks like ball movement. On average they pass 227.6 times a game which has them first in passing and second in offloading with 11.8 offloads per game.

H2H: Sea Eagles ($2.50)Value: Sea Eagles ($3.80)

AFL ROUND 9 TIPS

West Coast Eagles ($1.30) v Melbourne Demons ($3.55)

Plucky Dees could pose plenty of problems for Eagles

A preliminary final rematch from last season opens round 9 action when the Eagles host the Dees. The Demons’ 66 point hammering in Perth late last season has been a loss they haven’t recovered from if their form this season is any indication. With just three wins to their name, they will be looking for a massive upset when they travel west to play the Eagles. The Dees scraped over the line in dramatic fashion against the Suns last round, with a Tom McDonald point in the dying seconds enough to seal a miraculous Demons win. They have now put together consecutive narrow victories, but this week’s opponent is sure to provide a sterner test for the red and blue. West Coast dispatched of the Saints by three goals last weekend and it was a six goal to two third term that did most of the damage. Josh Kennedy looked back to his threatening best as he kicked two goals. Four Eagles players booted two goals apiece, while Liam Ryan had five shots on goal for just one major. Prior to last season’s finals loss, Melbourne had won two in a row in Perth against West Coast. The Dees have struggled to score this season, ranking second last in the competition with just 556 points scored. The good news for them is that the Eagles are third last in points scoring 596 points. The Wolf thinks the Dees will take a lot from their heroics in recent weeks and given the lack of scoring prowess among these sides, taking Melbourne and the sizeable points start is the play.

H2H: Demons +21.5 ($1.90)Value: Demons 1-39 ($4.25)

Collingwood Magpies ($1.21) v St Kilda Saints ($4.50)

Magnificent seven for Pies

Collingwood scraped by arch rivals Carlton in a see-sawing match at the ‘G last round and will look to notch their sixth straight win when they host the Saints on Saturday afternoon. The Wolf mentioned last week that the Pies and Blues have played close games recently and their battle last weekend was no different, with Carlton leading half way through the final term. Some late Jordan De Goey magic and Magpies ruthlessness in attack snared them the win. The Saints weren’t as fortunate last Saturday night against the Eagles, trailing for the entire game and losing by three goals. In their only meeting last season, the Pies were 28 point winners, with Brodie Grundy a standout with 23 disposals, 10 contested possessions and 42 hitouts. Jordan De Goey booted six goals as the Pies kicked away in the second half. In the past five seasons, the Saints have a 5-5 record at the ‘G and beat the Dees as big outsiders at the home of footy just a month ago. Three losses on the trot has The Wolf concerned though, as the Saints look to be trending downwards, while the Pies keep finding ways to win. Collingwood looked a step slow last week and still got the job done and will be sharper this week.

H2H: Pies -29.5 ($1.91)Value: Pies 40-59 ($4.50)

Brisbane Lions ($1.78) v Adelaide Crows ($2.05)

Crows in an upset

The Crows edged the Showdown last week, despite a late scare with the Power booting six final term goals to make things interesting, before Adelaide held on to win by 20 points. Four wins in a row for the Crows has seen them rocket up the table to third after a 1-3 start. They travel to the Gabba to play the Lions, who have enjoyed plenty of success in Queensland this season. With just one loss against Collingwood to their name at the Gabba, Brisbane has made its home ground somewhat of a fortress. Their away form leaves plenty to be desired though and despite a strong start in Ballarat against the Dogs, they were overpowered in the second half to lose by 16 points. The Crows have won seven on the trot against Brisbane at all venues, with a five point win in round 18 last season the closest margin across those games. The Wolf has had some success backing teams on big winning streaks against their opponents and despite the Lions’ recent off years, the Crows have had their measure. The Crows should squeeze past Brisbane in a close one and offer good value.

H2H: Crows ($2.05)Value: Crows 1-39 ($2.60)

Geelong Cats ($1.21) v Western Bulldogs ($4.50)

Cats to prevail against Dogs

Geelong will look to extend its one game buffer at the top of the table when it hosts the Western Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon. The Cats dispatched of North by four goals last Sunday to notch their fourth win on the trot, while the Dogs improved to 4-4 on the season with a 16 point win against Brisbane in Ballarat. Joel Selwood was a late scratching against the Roos with a leg injury and will be touch and go this week, while Gary Ablett free to play after being given the all clear by the MRP for two incidents against the Roos. Ruckman Tim English should be back for the Dogs after missing against Brisbane, as the Dogs went for the unconventional no ruckman option against the Lions. The Dogs lost 11 in a row against Geelong before a two point win in round 15 last season. They have a woeful record in Geelong, losing all six of their matches by the bay in the past 10 seasons. The Wolf has found it hard to not back the Cats given their recent form and they have been covering machines all season long. There’s no reason to stray from that winning formula this week.

H2H: Cats -29.5 ($1.90)
Value: Cats 60+ ($4.75)

Essendon Bombers ($1.41) v Fremantle Dockers ($2.95)

Bombers to get past Dockers in low scoring match

Essendon is staring at four straight losses if they can’t beat the Dockers as big favourites on Saturday night. The Dons lost to the bottom placed Swans last round by five points with a shot after the siren by David Myers from 55 metres out not making the distance. Fremantle is on a two game losing streak after a 25 point defeat at the hands of Richmond last Sunday. The Dockers couldn’t get past a wounded Tigers outfit that was missing a number of key players through injury, giving up 100+ points for the first time this campaign. The last meeting between these sides was in round 18 last year, with the Bombers prevailing by 29 points. The final scoreline flattered Freo, who had just 15 scoring shots to the Bombers’ 34. Orazio Fantasia was unstoppable in that match, booting five goals and netting three Brownlow votes. He will be out of this one through injury as the forward star has been struggling for fitness all season. The Wolf knows neither team has lit up the scoreboard consistently in 2019, but home ground advantage and a desperation to not drop to 3-6 will see the Bombers prevail narrowly.

H2H: Dockers +16.5 ($1.91)
Value: Bombers 1-24 ($3.10)

North Melbourne Kangaroos ($1.76) v Sydney Swans ($2.07)

Roos to hop out of Hobart with a win

The Roos and Swans meet for just the third time in Hobart on Saturday night, with both teams desperate to get out of the bottom four. It was always going to be an uphill battle for North against the competition leaders and despite never being out of the match, they also never threatened to topple a far slicker Geelong side. Ben Brown’s five goals will give the Roos plenty of heart though, with the big forward looking a lot better in recent weeks. It was win at any cost for Sydney, with Dane Rampe shaking the goal post on David Myers’ final second shot. Luckily for the Swans, that escaped the penalty of a free kick on the goal line and the Swans snuck away with a five point victory. The Swans have won both of their games at Blundstone Arena against North. The Roos have turned the Tasmanian venue into a home away from home, amassing a 13-3 record at the ground, with two of those losses being to Sydney. Lance Franklin is a chance to play in a big boost for Sydney, while Daniel Menzel has shown strong form in the reserves and could add some scoring punch for Sydney. The Swans have been poor on the road all season long, while North will welcome a trip back to a venue where they love playing at. The Wolf wasn’t inspired by the Swans performance a week ago and is backing North to turn around their poor start to the season.

H2H: Kangaroos ($1.76)

Value: Kangaroos -4.5 / Under 166.5 ($3.60)

Port Adelaide Power ($1.19) v Gold Coast Suns ($4.75)

Port to extend winning streak against Suns

The Power would be left disappointed with their Showdown effort and while they climbed out of a 44 point deficit to get within two goals, they left their run too late and lost by 20 points. Their opponents this week, the Suns, have had their fair share of heartbreaking losses this season and last round was no different. A one-point loss to Melbourne close to the siren was their second one-point loss of the season and fifth game overall decided by a goal or less. They are 2-3 in those matches. It was a return to form of sorts for Stewart Dew’s men though, as they were blown away in their three prior matches. Of concern is the fact that they are on a four game losing streak. The Power have the wood over the Suns in recent times, winning nine matches in a row. Adelaide Oval has not been a happy hunting ground for the Queenslanders either, who are yet to record a victory at the ground in five attempts. Port’s injury list appears to be growing by the week, but Robbie Gray could return from a broken hand if all goes well at training this week. It’s hard to get a read on either side ahead of this one, but The Wolf has seen that Port has clobbered the Suns in recent times and with a mental edge and home ground advantage, should win comfortably.

H2H: Power -30.5 ($1.91)Value: Power 60+ ($4.60)

Richmond Tigers ($1.60) v Hawthorn Hawks ($2.35)

Hawks in an upset

It goes from bad to worse for the Tigers in terms of injuries, with a host of injuries to come out of their win across the Nullarbor against the Dockers. Toby Nankervis and Jack Riewoldt are the latest to join the injury list, but Daniel Rioli and Nick Vlastuin could be among the ins at the selection table. Hawthorn pulled off a surprise 33-point win against the Giants last weekend. They restricted one of the league’s most potent attacks to just five goals in a dominant second half, where they booted five goals to one. Former skipper Jarryd Roughead impressed in the reserves with five goals and could be in line for an instant recall to the senior side. The Tigers have tasted victory in their last three games against this opponent, but it was the Hawks who dominated this fixture before that. The brown and gold’s four losses have all been by less than four goals this season and The Wolf senses a game against a wounded Tigers team travelling back from Perth could just be the tonic for an upset win.

H2H: Hawks ($2.35)Value: Hawks 1-39 ($3.05)

GWS Giants ($1.13) v Carlton Blues ($6)

Tigers to upset Dockers

The Giants are the rounds shortest priced favourites as they come against the bottom of the ladder Blues on Sunday afternoon in Sydney. GWS suffered a surprise loss to Hawthorn in their last game, with their 2-15 record at the MCG showing they still aren’t up to it on the big stage. The Blues hung around against Collingwood, even taking the lead halfway through the final term before succumbing to some late Magpie brilliance to lose by three goals. The Giants have won five of their past six against the Blues, with Carlton’s only win in that span coming by just one point in 2017. Lachie Whitfield and Shane Mumford could be among those coming into the Giants team this week, with Leon Cameron likely to ring the changes after last week’s blowout loss. GWS has been strong at home all season long and won’t be taking the Blues lightly after last weekend’s loss. The Wolf can sense a big Giants win in this one.

H2H: Giants -37.5 ($1.91)Value: Giants 60+ ($3.60)

A-League Grand Final Preview: Perth Glory v Sydney FC

Perth v Sydney FC | Sunday, May 19, 6.30pm (AEST), Optus Stadium, Perth

A new A-League record could be set when Perth Glory and Sydney FC meet in the A-League Grand Final for the first time.

Perth are appearing in their second grand final in the A-League era, their first was a 2-1 defeat to the Roar in Brisbane in 2012, while the last time Perth hosted a grand final was in the old NSL in 2003.
The Premiers’ Plate champions carry plenty of momentum into the A-League decider following their pulsating 3-3 (5-4) win over Adelaide United on penalties.
Playmaker Diego Castro nabbed a brace, Scott Neville added a third in extra time while gloveman Liam Reddy enjoyed a penalty shootout of a lifetime saving four and scoring his own spot kick as well.

After putting six past the Melbourne Victory in a one-sided Big Blue, Sydney FC are riding a wave of momentum.
Adam le Fondre collected a brace including a penalty, while Aaron Calver, Milos Ninkovic and Alex Brosque all scored one goal apiece.
The Sky Blues love playing the Glory and have won 10 of their last 11 A-League fixtures against the Glory including a 3-0 victory in their previous finals clash in 2016/17.

The Verdict
Perth might have a 21-6-3 (70.0 percent) record as a home favourite in the A-League since 2016/17 but Sydney FC leads the Glory 20-3-5 since 2010/11.
There is limited grand final experience in Glory side’s with former Brisbane Roar player Ivan Franjic the only player to have played in a grand final.
Sydney FC, on the other hand, boast a wealth of experience and in their 5th grand final, they’ll have the composure and polish to clinch a fourth A-League grand final victory.

Odds (regular time): Perth 2.32 Draw 3.45 Sydney FC 3.12
Tip: Sydney FC
Correct score: 1-1 (6.50)

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