2017-07-02 - MEBET365 - FREE Tips For Betting, Football Bet of the Day

Wimbledon Tips: Day 6

Day 6: Feature Previews 
 
Grigor Dimitrov v Dudi Sela 
 
This may be the best bet of The Championships thus far. Dimitrov has been in stunning form and playing vintage grass court tennis while Sela will be absolutely spent following back to back 5 set wins. Dimitrov holds a 4-0 H2H advantage in matches played on the main tour between the pair but it is not the record that has the attention of The Wolf but the scoreline in their most recent clashes. Dimitrov has won 9 of the 10 sets contested with 4 of the last 5 coming by a double break margin. He has been able to break the Sela serve at will and if Isner is able to generate 14 break point opportunities just imaging how many Dimitrov will get! Back the Bulgarian from every angle possible!  
 
Best: Dimitrov -7.5 ($2.00) 
 
Ernests Gulbis v Novak Djokovic 
 
The Wolf says he could be getting this one all wrong but cannot ignore what he has seen with his eyes. Everyone has been quick to say that Djokovic is back to his best but The Wolf couldn’t disagree more. His title winning run in Eastbourne against inferior competition has disguised the fact that he is far from back to his best. Klizan rolled over and retired in his opening round match while Pavlasek could barely make a 1st serve. Then we have the fact that Ernests Gulbis was incredible in a straight sets win over Del Potro. He plays the tennis of a man that is worthy of being in the top 10 and it is his massive serve which gives him a puncher’s chance. He thundered down 25 aces in three sets and has won in excess of 80% of points on his first serve. He will prevent Djokovic from getting into a rhythm and will go for it on return. To many this would be a shock result but not The Wolf. He says to get right around the Overs and to make sure you have a little something on Gulbis to win outright at double figure odds. 
 
Best: Over 31.5 games ($1.91) 
 
David Ferrer v Tomas Berdych 
 
Few 35 year-olds have put their bodies through what David Ferrer has but the marathon man keeps going and The Wolf is very surprised to still see him in the tournament. His upset win over Gasquet was impressive and with Darcis retiring after just 3 games in his second round match he will be fresh. Berdych has dropped a set in each of his matches but it is fair to say that both Chardy and Harrison posses more power than the Spaniard. The pair are locked at 7 wins a piece in their 14 prior encounters but it is Berdych who has had the better of it in recent years. He has won 4 of the last 5 including the last two in straight sets – both on clay, Ferrer’s favourite surface. If Berdych can beat him in straight sets on clay The Wolf gives him little chance of claiming a set on grass. 
 
Best: Sets Berdych 3-0 ($2.15) 
 
Mischa Zverev v Roger Federer 
 
Federer got off to a very slow start against Lajovic and struggled to find the range on his forehand. He clicked into gear in the breaker and The Wolf loved the fact that he was trying to venture to the net at every opportunity. HE is unlikey to get to the net as often against Zverev who will serve and volley on almost every point. Mischa is no threat to Federer as he has no baseline game whatsoever. Federer has won all 4 of their previous matches including a 7-6 6-4 in Halle a fortnight ago. That scoreline make the contest look closer than it was. Zverev was unable to generate a single break point with Roger winning 76% of points on serve despite making a little over half of his first serves. Zverev will not break his serve and that makes Federer at the line a fantastic bet. With the German coming off a 5 setter look for him to fade dramatically in the 3rd set. 
 
Best: Federer -7.5 ($1.80) 
 
Sebastian Ofner v Alexander Zverev 
 
The Wolf is a big believer in Alexander Zverev but the lines and totals for this match are set as if Roger or Rafa are at the peak of their powers. Fair enough he is yet to drop a set but each of his 6 sets have had at least 9 games and he has converted 7 of 9 break points (78%) – a figure which is unsustainable. Ofner is getting not credit for his performances thus far. He came through the qualifiers and got himself a win over Bellucci but it is the resolve which he showed against Sock which stands out. After winning the opening two sets he lost the next two in not time but came out of the clouds in the 5th to crush the American. Zverev will win but The Wolf can see Ofner pushing him to at least one breaker. 
 
Best: Over 29.5 games ($1.73) 
 
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TTYLK4bggbg/WWDj1iUeI1I/AAAAAAAACQ4/ywPzQD5LMZ4CtxBNLT7cX_pvJbDLsdYhgCLcBGAs/s1600/1499506099_novak-djokovic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="675" height="426" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TTYLK4bggbg/WWDj1iUeI1I/AAAAAAAACQ4/ywPzQD5LMZ4CtxBNLT7cX_pvJbDLsdYhgCLcBGAs/s640/1499506099_novak-djokovic.jpg" width="640" /></a>

Wimbledon Tips: Day 6

Day 6: Feature Previews Grigor Dimitrov v Dudi Sela This may be the best bet of The Championships thus far. Dimitrov has been in stunnin...

23:53

Tour de France 2017 Stage 8: Can Cummings cross threshold at Station des Rousses?

What's the stage like? 
 
Unusual. 188km, with the intermediate sprint coming at just 45km, before three categorised climbs and several other undulations besides. It even looks like a summit finish of sorts, in that it ends at 1,200 metres; however, that height is reached 12km from the finish, before the road dips down and then kicks-up steeply again in the last 3km. To add interest, the roads narrow significantly towards the end of the stage. 
 
It's a hard stage to read. It will certainly be a day off from sprint action for the speed merchants, and it is hard to see the puncheurs surviving the final category-one climb up Montee de la Combe de Laisia les Molunes, which is a testing ascent with rapidly changing gradients. Riders will find it difficult to establish a rhythm, and anyone who paces their effort poorly will be punished. GC-contenders - especially those ruing the relative lack of summit finishes on this year's Tour - may decide to chance an attack on the climb, with the hope that they can sustain their advantage to the finish. That's a risky strategy - especially considering the gargantuan task that awaits them on Stage 9, and so this may be the day for the breakaway. 
 
Who are the favourites? 
 
Given his stunning form of late, and his propensity for winning stages of the Tour de France, it's no surprise that Steve Cummings is the tentative favourite at around 15.00. For him to orchestrate that victory, though, relies on several factors: that he can get in a breakaway with enough firepower to establish a race-winning advantage; that the GC teams are prepared to let a breakaway go; and that Cummings is then able to beat his fellow escapees. There are few riders in the peloton so adept at constructing a stage-win-from-nothing as Cummings is, but I'm not sure there is enough value at the odds. 
 
Who are the most likely outsiders? 
 
Sylvain Chavanel (100.00) won the stage, and claimed the Yellow Jersey, the last time the Tour visited here in 2010, and the likes of Tony Gallopin (30.00) and Thomas De Gendt (28.00) have similar chances. 
 
Alexis Vuillermoz might be worth a punt, though. He has twice won a similar stage at the Tour du Gévaudan Languedoc-Roussillon into Mende, beating Thibaut Pinot both times. He's more well-known as a puncheur, but if he can stay in contention on the final climb, will have the beating of most on the final rise to the line. At odds of 100.00, he has a lot of appeal, especially as the stage passes through his home town. 
 
What effect will the stage have on the overall markets? 
 
Demare will presumably attempt to secure all the points he can at the intermediate sprint in the battle between himself and Kittel for the Green Jersey. An interesting narrative is developing there: Demare is going for consistency on any flat stage where points are available; Kittel seems to be focusing on stage wins; and meanwhile Michael Matthews is trying to stay as close as possible to that leading duo knowing that he can capitalise on the puncheur finishes to come. It's a contest that's hard to call. 
 
The King of the Mountains competition will start to take more of a shape; if any rider tops-out at all three categorised climbs first they would take the lead in the competition. That might be a strategy for Thibaut Pinot. Unlike Rafal Majka - who is only a minute behind the Yellow Jersey and so wouldn't be allowed any leeway in a break - Pinot, who is more than 10 minutes back, would likely be allowed to target a solo stage win, hoovering-up Polka Dot Jersey points along the way. 
 
As for the General Classification and White Jersey, it's unlikely that anyone will make a race winning move today - unless someone like Contador or Quintana plans the kind of swashbuckling move that saw Froome lose the Vuelta last year on the Formigal stage - but some riders will find themselves out of the reckoning by the day's end. All the Yellow Jersey hopefuls face a dilemma: how much energy do they need to conserve to survive the following day? 
 
Recommended Bets 
Back Alexis Vuillermoz at 100.00 
 
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BKLui9xpm6I/WWDjIJuuSTI/AAAAAAAACQ0/OJv8GjArMykyuPhtdLAuDBs3jWBlxvcAwCLcBGAs/s1600/tumblr_osqes5dgcw1ropreyo1_1280.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="740" data-original-width="1200" height="394" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BKLui9xpm6I/WWDjIJuuSTI/AAAAAAAACQ0/OJv8GjArMykyuPhtdLAuDBs3jWBlxvcAwCLcBGAs/s640/tumblr_osqes5dgcw1ropreyo1_1280.jpg" width="640" /></a> 
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Tour de France 2017 Stage 8: Can Cummings cross threshold at Station des Rousses?

What's the stage like? Unusual. 188km, with the intermediate sprint coming at just 45km, before three categorised climbs and several o...

23:50

Wimbledon Women's Day 6: Hercog can keep it close against Kuznetsova

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Azarenka fightback completes game handicap victory</h2>
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On day five of Wimbledon, we picked up a winner with Victoria Azarenka turning her match around with Heather Watson to cover the -3.5 game handicap, and on a day where there were numerous straight set wins across both singles events, real shocks were in short supply.</h2>
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Considering the upsets over the previous two days in the ladies singles, this was something of a surprise in itself, and there are a number of competitive-looking matches today as the remaining eight third round matches are played, with the winners moving into the fourth round, and week two, on Monday.</h2>
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Big names in action on day six</h2>
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Three of the players at the forefront of the outright betting are in action, with Angelique Kerber and Garbine Muguruza both around the 1.25 mark for their matches with Shelby Rogers and Sorana Cirstea, respectively, while Coco Vandeweghe is bigger, at 1.48 for her clash with fellow American, Alison Riske. Of the trio, Muguruza is the one who looks shortest priced, but it's certainly nothing noteworthy.</h2>
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Grass stats also made Anett Kontaveit some value as an underdog at 2.14 against Caroline Wozniacki, with my model pricing her as a slight favourite, but my concern with the Estonian, as noted on Thursday, is that she may be a touch flattered by facing a number of weak opponents, and without doubt, the Dane, Wozniacki, is a significant upgrade on those.</h2>
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Kuznetsova short against improving Hercog</h2>
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However, I do feel that Polona Hercog offers solid value as an underdog against Svetlana Kuznetsova on what is the Russian favourite's worst surface. Kuznetsova is a current 1.14 with the Exchange, and I priced her bigger, at 1.31, for this match against the Slovenian qualifier.</h2>
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Hercog has impressed at SW19, coming through qualifying before ousting both Annika Beck and Varvara Lepchenko, and after almost a year off tour with injury, coming back at the end of May, she's making up for lost time. She showed some form prior to Wimbledon by winning an ITF event on clay last month, and she certainly will have plenty of motivation here, with a win likely to rank her back somewhere around where she was before her lay-off.</h2>
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Kuznetsova's 12-6 record in the last three years on the surface is solid rather than spectacular, and when you consider that she's won just 101.7% combined service and return points won on grass in that time period, it's easy to understand why I feel that she's over-rated on the surface currently.</h2>
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I do feel that Hercog can keep this close, and we can back her at 1.93 getting a +5.5 game head start, and it wouldn't surprise me if this price rose a little in the run-up to the match.</h2>
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Radwanska drift a 'market knows' moment?</h2>
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In other matches, a huge drift puts Agnieszka Radwanska into value territory at 2.56 versus Timea Bacsinszky, but I wonder if the 'market knows' here, and am duly a little reticent, while the in-form duo of Magdalena Rybarikova (against Lesia Tsurenko) and Petra Martic (faces Zarina Diyas) look accurately priced on the Exchange.</h2>
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Therefore, it is the Slovenian, Hercog, who carries our hopes on day six of Wimbledon.</h2>
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Recommended Bets</h2>
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Back Polona Hercog +5.5 games at 1.93</h2>
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Wimbledon Women's Day 6: Hercog can keep it close against Kuznetsova

Azarenka fightback completes game handicap victory On day five of Wimbledon, we picked up a winner with Victoria Azarenka turning her m...