NRL Preview: Bulldogs v Knights

NRL Preview
Canterbury Bulldogs v Newcastle Knights
Sunday, July 9, 4pm (AEST) at Belmore Sports Ground

The pressure valve is reaching breaking point and another loss by the Bulldogs against the last-placed Knights could spell the end of Des Hasler’s coaching career at the Bulldogs if the board finally steps in. The Dogs will be hoping that a return to their spiritual home in Belmore will bring out the best in them, but they’ll need to get the job done minus Brett Morris, Josh Jackson and David Klemmer who are all on Origin duty. The Knights have the sole Origin representative in Dane Gagai who has arguably been Newcastle’s best player all season and has been Queensland’s best over the first two matches in this year’s Origin series.

History
The Bulldogs have won four on the trot against the Knights including a 22-12 win earlier in the season in Newcastle. Bulldogs rookie winger Marcelo Montoya scored a double in his side’s 10-point win in Newcastle. Five of the last six matches have tallied 38 points or fewer.

Form
Canterbury is down to 13th on the ladder with a 6-10 record. The Bulldogs have won just 1 of their last 7 matches, an uninspiring 16-2 win over fellow strugglers St George Illawarra. Canterbury have the worst attack in the premiership and have not scored more than 18 points since Round 7. Newcastle are in last spot with just two wins for the season. The Knights have now dropped five straight including a humiliating 33-12 loss at home to an understrength Wests Tigers last round. Newcastle have conceded at least 30 in four of their last five.

Key Matchup
Josh Reynolds v Trent Hodkinson. Reynolds is one of the Bulldogs favourite sons and would love one final win at Belmore before he moves on to the Wests Tigers next season. The Bulldogs attack has been diabolical this year and it’s up to Reynolds to spark it into action through his energy and short kicking game. Hodkinson played a few solid seasons for the Bulldogs before making the move to Newcastle. It unfortunately hasn’t panned out as he would have liked, with the Knights halfback spending the majority of this season in the NSW Cup. He made a disappointing return to first grade in last week’s loss to the Tigers, but coach Nathan Brown has decided to stick with him against his former club.

Stats That Matter
– Canterbury are 9-7 ATS with a 13-3 under record while Newcastle are 7-8 ATS with an 8-7 under record.
– The Bulldogs have won four on the trot against the Knights including a 22-12 win earlier in the season in Newcastle.
– Five of the last six matches have tallied 38 points or fewer.
– Canterbury are 1-4 ATS with a 4-1 under record since returning to Belmore with just a single outright win.
– The Bulldogs have covered just 2 of their last 11 when favoured by more than a converted try.
– The Bulldogs have gone under in 7 of their last 8 day games.
– The Bulldogs are 20-9 under after conceding 13 or fewer last game while they are 10-19 ATS.
– Newcastle are 9-6 under on the road after scoring 12 or fewer.

Final Thoughts
The Wolf finds it difficult to back either side with any confidence, making the unders the best play here. Both sides struggle to score points and as already pointed out, five of the last six matches have tallied 38 points or fewer. The Dogs have some big outs, but with the pressure on head coach Des Hasler, the boys from Belmore should be able to lift and grind out a victory.

How It’s Shaping Up
Canterbury by 4

Best Bet
Under 41.5 ($1.90)

Other Recommended Bets
Newcastle +7.5 ($1.91)