Chelsea v Swansea: Gylfi and a good likelihood of goals

Chelsea v Swansea 
Saturday 15:00

Chelsea

Who said Jose Mourinho's last season at Chelsea was a disaster? By finishing in such an awful position he ensured they had no European matches in midweek to recover from nor any to think about when Premier League commitments came about. Which paved the way for Antonio Conte to have all the time in the world in midweek to prepare for this competition. The result? Chelsea are eight points clear.

Sure, last time out they drew 1-1 at Burnley and on another day may even have lost that match. But they didn't and given what Burnley have done to the likes of Liverpool, Everton and Southampton (all beaten at Turf Moor), it may not look a bad result at all come May.

Thibaut Courtois has a slight illness but is likely to be OK to play and everyone else is available. That includes Cesc Fabregas, who would become the first Spanish player to make 300 appearances in the Premier League if he were to take part in this match, as Opta tell us. The smart money is on him doing that.

Swansea

It seems to be a case of third time lucky for Swansea. Francesco Guidolin wasn't the right man for the Welsh outfit, much less Bob Bradley.

But Paul Clement has really turned things around for them. It helps to have had the experience of managing at clubs like Real Madrid and...Chelsea. He was Carlo Ancelotti's assistant there between 2009 and 2011.

It's a remarkable achievement what he's done and often without some important players: Jefferson Montero, Nathan Dyer, Ki Sung-Yueng and Neil Taylor have all been out for a while and miss this one, too.

Match Odds

Despite everything, this may not be the home banker it seems for Chelsea (1.27). Opta tell us they've failed to beat Swansea in their last three games and that Swansea have scored four times in their last four visits to Stamford Bridge. Besides, Swansea have nine points from their last four matches and that could easily have been ten if Manchester City's Gabriel Jesus hadn't scored a late winner in a 2-1 win for Pep Guardiola's men.

If I had to have a bet, it would be on the draw at a chunky 6.60. But we'll leave that alone.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

Want to have a guess at which side has had the most over 2.5 goals games this season? Go on, have a guess. Ok, it's Swansea with 76%. Want to have a guess at which side has had the most number of home matches finish with three goals or more? Ok, this isn't a fun game. But it's Chelsea, with 83%.

The key element here is that Chelsea's defence hasn't been quite as good in recent weeks. David Luiz has been carrying a slight knock on his knee for a while now and it may also just be that with that sextet- Courtois; Luiz, Cahill, Azpilicueta; Alonso, Moses - being in action week after week after week they may be just a tad jaded, despite the lack of European matches.

Either way, they haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last three league matches and we've discussed Swansea's recent scoring at Stamford Bridge already so every stat backs this up as having a very good chance of winning. Over 2.5 goals is 1.64.

To Score

Diego Costa wouldn't mind playing Swansea every week. He has seven goals in four games against them and as Opta tell us, his 1.75 goals a game against them is a Chelsea record for best ratio against any team for a player having played at least four games. But a 'tissue' price of around 1.44 on him looks short despite all that record-breaking stuff.

I'd rather go with Gylfi Sigurdsson. A dream player for any Fantasy Football Manager because of his ability to score from free-kicks, penalties, inside the box from open play and outside the box from open play. And there's no side he likes playing against more than Chelsea. He has four goals against them (two for Swansea, two for Spurs), his best record against any other club. He's also scored three in his last four and offers a far better return for your investment at odds of around 5.50 once the Exchange market matures.

Recommended Bets 
1pt Back Gylfi Sigurdsson to score @ 5.50 
2pts Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.64