Bundesliga Betting: Fabulous Freiburg to raise eyebrows again

Freiburg v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday February 25, 14:30

With RB Leipzig still mounting an improbable title push, it's easy to forget the extraordinary job that Freiburg have done since winning the Bundesliga 2 title. The men from the Black Forest have racked up seven home wins already, and they only need a handful of points to secure their top-flight status.

Freiburg showed their fighting spirit last weekend as they twice battled back from a goal down to draw 2-2 at in-form Hamburg, and they have now lost just two of their last nine Bundesliga matches. Playmaker Vincenzo Grifo is in excellent form, having scored in back-to-back games, and he has now contributed five Bundesliga goals and six assists this term. It's a fine answer to those who doubted the Italian's ability to step up.

Borussia Dortmund's Champions League campaign hangs in the balance after a 1-0 defeat at Benfica, and their Bundesliga form continues to underwhelm. Although they swept aside feeble Wolfsburg 3-0 last weekend, they just don't seem to be able to replicate their impressive home form on their travels. BVB have won just one of their last eight away matches in all competitions, and even that was an undeserved victory against ten men at Werder Bremen. 

Thomas Tuchel's men were truly feeble in their last Bundesliga away game, a 2-1 reverse at rock-bottom Darmstadt.

Star striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored just once in six games since returning from the African Cup of Nations, and Marco Reus has netted just twice in his last eight outings. Coach Tuchel likes to shuffle his pack, but I wonder if he almost has too many combinations to choose from, and as a result, Dortmund are finding fluency hard to come by. In four away games in 2017, BVB have netted just four goals.

Freiburg have promising forward Janik Haberer suspended, but skipper Maik Frantz and burly striker Florian Niederlechner should return. Dortmund hope to welcome back key defender Sokratis after illness.

Dortmund seem way too short to me at 1.60, as Freiburg have one of the best home records in the division, and are playing well. I'm laying the visitors.

Recommended Bet
Lay Borussia Dortmund at 1.60

Wolfsburg v Werder Bremen
Friday February 24, 19:30
Live on BT Sport

This is arguably the game of the weekend, as both teams are desperate to pick up points. Werder are in the relegation playoff spot despite last week's impressive win at Mainz, while Wolfsburg are only three points better off.

Werder have been unlucky to pick up just one positive result in 2017. They played really well against Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich, but lost both games. Hearteningly, sporting director Frank Baumann has stood by coach Alexander Nouri, despite the poor run of results. I think Nouri is doing a good job with an unbalanced squad, and having joined Werder as a 15-year-old, he has a strong emotional connection to the club.

Wolfsburg made some seemingly astute signings in the winter window, but they continue to underachieve. They were hopeless at Dortmund last week, and the weekend before they eked out a win over Hoffenheim that they barely deserved. They have lost four of their last five games in league and cup, and although the squad is full of talented players, I'm not sure enough of them have the stomach for a fight.

I'm tempted to lay Wolfsburg, as they are a shade shy of evens. However, the suspension of veteran Clemens Fritz and an injury to the dynamic Thomas Delaney has robbed Werder of any solidity in midfield. Therefore, I fancy quite an open game. Werder have plenty of attacking options, not least Serge Gnabry and former Wolfsburg striker Max Kruse, and I think they'll contribute to a goal-filled encounter.

Six of Wolfsburg's last nine league games have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land, and that's true of 16 of Werder's 21 Bundesliga matches this term.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.80

Ingolstadt v Borussia Monchengladbach
Sunday February 26, 14:30
Live on BT Sport

Ingolstadt secured a remarkable 2-0 win at Eintracht Frankfurt last weekend, handing the Eagles their first home defeat since April. However, it's fair to say the Bavarians were given something of a helping hand. Firstly, the hosts' David Abraham got himself sent off for a ridiculous studs-up challenge. Then, Frankfurt won a penalty which would have made it 1-1. Makoto Hasebe saw a weak penalty saved, but he then crashed the rebound against the bar with the goal gaping.

FCI boss Maik Walpurgis has done a super job, making a limited group of players compact and hard to beat. However, they still have very little punch in attack. No-one in the squad has more than three league goals this season, and Ingolstadt have drawn a blank in three of their last five games.

Borussia Monchengladbach aren't totally out of the relegation woods, but they have come on leaps and bounds since Dieter Hecking replaced Andre Schubert over the winter break. Last weekend's home defeat to RB Leipzig was a setback, but had Thorgan Hazard converted a penalty at 1-0 down, it could have been a totally different story.

Their confidence will also have been boosted by a really quite remarkable Europa League comeback against Fiorentina. The Foals lost the first leg 1-0, and were 2-0 down in the second leg, but skipper Lars Stindl scored a 12-minute hat-trick to lead his side to a 4-2 victory.

Gladbach have already collected more points on the road in 2017 under Hecking than they managed in the whole of 2016 under Schubert, and after their sensational salvage job in Italy, I think they can win again.

Recommended Bet
Back Borussia Monchengladbach Draw No Bet at 2.04