Serie A Betting: Back Atalanta to upset Napoli again and a tight Inter v Roma clash

Napoli v Atalanta
Saturday, 17:00
Live on Betfair Live Video

I have a friend who feels that the early Serie A game on a Saturday is cursed, and destined to always be low scoring and dull. There's some logic to back this up: grounds are not as full as they might be, players maybe not as ready.

I can't believe that will be the case this weekend, though. This is an absolutely key game at the top of the table, with Napoli having to win to keep up any remote chance of the title, and Atalanta pushing hard for Europe. Both teams can really play, and this should be the game of the weekend.

Napoli's League run of late has been hugely impressive. They haven't lost since Juve beat them on October 29 and there was no shame in a 3-1 defeat at Real Madrid. Their headline-grabbing win at Bologna made them conform to the stereotype of a high-scoring, free-flowing gang of funsters, and yet they've often struggled to break teams down.

Given that Atalanta have won three in a row, look rock solid defensively, and have already beaten Napoli this season, they're being undervalued here. I'm surprised to see them available at 6.60 to win the game, at 4.40 Draw No Bet, and generally priced up as no hopers.

They have a fantastically astute coach, and given Napoli's often laboured approach against teams that set up to stop them (see Genoa in their last home game), I can see Gian Piero Gasperini masterminding something really special here.

I'm tempted to tip Atalanta in the Match Odds market, but as always, want to keep the draw on side, and so I'll settle for a lay of Napoli at what is too short a price.

Recommended Bet
Lay Napoli against Atalanta @ 1.65

Chievo v Pescara
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Betfair Live Video

I appreciate that there are a lot of contenders for the crown, but I'm pretty sure that last week I gave the worst tip that I have ever put up in my time writing for Betfair. How could I doubt Zdenek Zeman? The man has meant more to my footballing life than pretty much any other coach, and yet I didn't believe that he could revive Pescara. I was wrong.

One win, of course, doesn't mean that Pescara are going to pull off the biggest Serie A escape since Walter Mazzarri kept Reggina up all those years ago, but they have momentum, and they have a chance.

Such are the odds though, that you feel that they must go to Chievo and win: that would increase the pressure on those above them, and put them within something approaching touching distance, and then the club might really start to believe.

It's a long shot, but as ever with Zeman, it will be fun finding out. For those of you who are new to one of the great football brains of the last fifty years, his style is one of all-out attack. His teams have always entertained, and there's no reason to expect that to change at the Bentegodi.

Chievo have a deserved reputation as a tough, pretty boring team, but their last two Serie A games have featured Over 3.5 goals, and they strike me as the kind of side that will meet fire with fire. We won't be able to back goals in Pescara games at these kind of prices for long, so we should take advantage while we can. Over 3.5 Goals on Sunday afternoon is available at 2.80, and look no further for a bet.

Recommended Bet
Over 3.5 Goals in Chievo v Pescara @ 2.80

Inter v Roma
Sunday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1 and Betfair Live Video

To round off the weekend, we have a heavyweight clash that's all about outside chances of the title, and the chase for Europe. There's a rational school of thought that Inter would be better off without any distractions next season as they launch a realistic push for the title, but their owners will want as high as possible a finish to this campaign, and they would love to get win against a Serie A big boy.

This is such a tight game that I find it impossible to have an opinion in the Match Odds market, so prefer instead to focus on goals. Inter's last three Serie A games have all gone Under 2.5, and Roma are one of those teams who adopt a very different approach away from home.

Luciano Spalletti's side might have the in-form Edin Dzeko and can dazzle at home, yet away only one of their last six matches has gone Over 2.5 Goals. They're effective, but not convincingly so.

I can understand why Over 2.5 Goals is trading as the favourite on Sunday night, but it's a view of the game that I disagree with - I think this will be tight, close, and ultimately low scoring, and we should bet accordingly.

Recommended Bet
Under 2.5 goals in Inter v Roma @ 2.30