Everton v Sunderland: In-form hosts can secure another clear-cut win against strugglers

Everton v Sunderland
Saturday 25 February, 15:00

Everton

After a mid-season slump, Ronald Koeman has Everton back on the up and they are top of the six-match form table (and fifth over the last 10 games).

Star striker Romelu Lukaku, who missed Everton's training camp in Dubai in order to have treatment on a calf injury, is expected to be available, along with Aaron Lennon (illness), James McCarthy (hamstring) and Kevin Mirallas (groin).

Sunderland

The 4-0 victory at Crystal Palace three weeks ago appears to have been the most misleading of false dawns for Sunderland as it was immediately followed by a 4-0 defeat at home to Southampton, leaving David Moyes's team bottom of the table.

Moyes has lost several key players to long-term injury, including Victor Anichebe, Lee Cattermole and Jan Kirchhoff, but goalkeeper Jordan Pickford (knee) and midfielder Jack Rodwell (hamstring) are expected to be available.

Match Odds

One of Everton's weaknesses has been an inability to win enough games against the Premier League's poorest teams and that has been evident at Goodison Park in their 1-1 draws against Swansea (when managed by Bob Bradley) and Crystal Palace (when managed by Alan Pardew).

The reverse fixture at Sunderland was a microcosm of the Toffees' form because they were ineffective in a goalless first half and Koeman took off Ross Barkley at half-time, but their class told in the end as Lukaku scored an 11-minute hat-trick after the hour mark to give them a 3-0 win.

A key point is that Everton have been shut out only once in eight games against the bottom six (in a 0-0 at Middlesbrough) and, unless Sunderland can do that, a home win looks highly likely.

Sunderland's victory at Palace has the look of a match between two bad teams. Palace, one place above them, are the only team Sunderland have beaten since Christmas and Everton are a much tougher proposition.

Moyes's side rank 17th on away form with a record of W2 D1 L9 and their only away points have come in that win at Palace (19th in the table), another victory at Bournemouth (14th) and a draw at Southampton (11th).

Sunderland have lost all seven away games against top-half teams, failing to score in five of them and managing only a solitary goal in each of the other two.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Everton rank joint-fourth overall for matches with under 2.5 goals (14 out of 25) and the ratio does not change much at home (seven out of 12 under 2.5 goals).

Sunderland's stats are firmly towards over 2.5 goals (15 out of 25) but much depends on whether they score themselves. When they have, 12 out of 15 have gone over 2.5 goals; when they haven't, seven out of 10 have had under 2.5 goals.

With only two goals in seven away games against top-half teams, Sunderland may not score here and that would leave overs backers relying on an Everton goalfest.

Asian Handicap

The most appealing bets revolve around a home win and it might be worth taking a chance on Everton covering -1.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.16, which requires them to win by two goals or more.

Seven of Everton's 11 wins this season have come in that fashion, as well as six of Sunderland's nine away defeats, so there seems a reasonable chance the bet will come off.

Ref Watch

Stuart Attwell tends to be a low-key ref in his Premier League games, with four out of six this season having 30 bookings points or lower.

Recommended Bet
Back Everton off -1.5 on Asian Handicap at 2.16