Udinese v Milan Sunday, 19:30 Live on Eleven Sports 2 and Betfair Live Video
There are slim pickings in what looks to be a fairly uninspiring weekend in Serie A, with Roma's trip to Florence and this game in Udine the two fixtures which stand out.
I'm struggling to split Roma and La Viola, but there's a bet in this game, based on Milan's propensity to concede goals. We can back Both Teams To Score here at around the1.90 mark, and that looks to be a fairly healthy proposition. Milan are the only side in Serie A this season not to keep a clean sheet, and there are reasons to think that Udinese can at least score against them.
They have a front line of recent Azzurri debutant Kevin Lasagna and the in form Rodrigo De Paul, and Milan look so vulnerable defensively that you have to believe that Udinese can create chances. But they're also vulnerable at the back, picking up just one point from their last five games, conceding at least twice in each of those matches.
Milan look solid favourites to win this at around even money, but they're not a team to rely on, fortunate in the extreme to beat Genoa in midweek, and while I feel that they're improving, it's a tortuous process. Julio Velazquez has a tough task on his hands in Udine, and it won't look any easier come Sunday night.
In short, both teams have scored in six of the last seven meetings of these two, and I expect that to happen again, and I'm surprised to see that eventuality as big as1.90.
Chievo crisis to continue
Chievo v Sassuolo Sunday, 14:00 Live on Betfair Live Video
Poor Chievo remain rooted to the bottom of the table with a negative points total, and yet we can back Sassuolo at odds against to go to the Bentegodi and win. It may seem like an obvious play, but on this weekend of few bets, it's one that stands out.
Chievo have lost eight of their ten games so far this season, including six in a row before this, and even though they're unbeaten in their last six in Serie A against Sassuolo, it's hard to see them coming away from this weekend with anything.
I know that Giampiero Ventura has taken over, and may add stability, but I'm not sure that his appointment is a particularly positive one, and can only see bad things down the road for the Flying Donkeys.
Sassuolo haven't won in four, but only last week's draw against Bologna could be considered a really disappointing result, and they're playing well enough to win this. Chievo have conceded 26 goals so far this season, the most by any team at this stage since 1992-93, and they just don't look good enough to survive.
This is an excellent chance for Sassuolo to get their season back on track, and it looks like more misery for Chievo.
Fancy Frosinone in Parma
Parma v Frosinone Sunday, 14:00 Live on Betfair Live Video
In the absence of anything significantly more appealing, I'm going to take a chance on Frosinone at Parma. This is the first ever Serie A meeting between the two clubs, and with Frosinone having scored eight goals in their last three League games, I think that they have the firepower to put some pressure on a shot-shy Parma team.
Parma haven't scored in either of their last two League games, and have faced more shots than any other team in Europe's top five leagues. Given that Frosinone come here off the back of a remarkable win at SPAL, have Joel Campbell and Camillo Ciano playing well, and are full of confidence, I don't think that they'll see anything to daunt them here.
Frosinone are4.40 for the win, which is worth a second look, but we can be more conservative and back them with a goal start on the Asian Handicap, which seems the more sensible play. And much though I hate being sensible, that's the call here.
Back “Yes” in Both Teams to Score @ 1.90 in Udinese v Milan
Back Sassuolo to beat Chievo @ 2.16
Back Frosinone +1 on Asian Handicap against Parma @ 1.98