Wimbledon Women's Day 2: Muguruza likely to be too good against Alexandrova

Haddad Maia gives us a victory on day one


We went one from two on yesterday's ladies singles card, with Beatriz Haddad Maia being the first winner of the day, easily beating Laura Robson and covering the game handicap, but even after a late fightback, Katerina Siniakova fell to Maria Sakkari.


Not an abundance of value on day two


On day two of the women's action, there isn't much value to be had, with very few players standing out. Having prepared today's numbers on Saturday, I quite liked Sorana Cirstea against the injury-doubt, Kiki Bertens, who has never shown much on grass anyway, but her price has contracted a little to 1.82 and while my model made Coco Vandeweghe value against Mona Barthel, her price has also dropped to 1.40 and that's borderline given the slight fitness doubts surrounding the big-serving American, following her retirement last time out.


Muguruza value against youngster Alexandrova


The one player I do like today is Garbine Muguruza. While I may be content to oppose her later in this event, she looks a touch of value at 1.25 against the Russian youngster, Ekaterina Alexandrova, with my model pricing her up at 1.15. This is probably down to a disinterested display last time out in Eastbourne, but I'm willing to overlook this one-off event, and prefer to take a longer-term view when assessing players.

While it's fair to say that Alexandrova is a bit of an unknown quantity on grass - she played just the one warm-up event - it would be a big leap to beating one of the top players in the world, and dropping a set to Robson in that event is far from a ringing endorsement of her level.

Muguruza is available at 1.77 giving up -4.5 games on the game handicap and she's covered this line in five of her last seven wins on grass when priced sub-1.50. It seems extremely likely that if she wins, she will cover that line and taking this bigger price, as opposed to just winning the match, seems logical.


Kerber and Pliskova among those in action


In other action, world number one, and our outright hope, Angelique Kerber, is a justifiable heavy favourite to get past the qualifier, Irina Falconi, while it will be very interested to see the level of Agnieszka Radwanska, who hasn't looked at the races for the majority of the year. The Pole takes on declining veteran, Jelena Jankovic.

Tournament second favourite, Karolina Pliskova, is also expected by the market to beat Evgeniya Rodina, while some of the highlights include grass-courter Alison Riske against the returning Sloane Stephens, and Monica Puig's match with Timea Bacsinszky.

However, on a tough card on day two, it's Muguruza who holds our hopes of progression to the second round, where she will face either Yanina Wickmayer or Katerina Bondarenko.


Recommended Bets
Back Garbine Muguruza -4.5 games at 1.77