Form
Sydney have put a shocking start to the season behind them with seven wins in their last eight games to rise to ninth on the ladder. The Swans have not conceded more than 85 points in any of those eight games but they have not scored more than 88 in their last five. The Swans have the third best defence while they rank 10th in scoring.
Gold Coast have won just four of their last 10 matches and they are now 12th on the ladder with a 6-8 record. The Suns have the eighth best attack in the AFL but have recorded the second-worst defence. The Suns enter this off a convincing win over North where they posted their third highest score for the year.
Stats That Matter
– Sydney have won all seven games against Gold Coast by 35 or more points.
– The Swans have covered 4 of the last 6 clashes with the Suns.
– Sydney are 10-7 ATS as a favourite at the SCG of more than five goals.
– The Suns are 22-29 ATS interstate since 2012 but have covered 4 of their last 5.
– The over is 21-9 when the Suns are interstate underdogs of more than five goals.
– Interstate outsiders of more than five goals off a win cover at just 40%.
– The Suns are 8-11 ATS after scoring 110 or more.
– Sydney are 59-42 ATS after conceding 85 or fewer.
Betting Data
2017 Line: Sydney 6-8, Gold Coast 8-6
2017 Over-Under: Sydney 6-8, Gold Coast 8-6
What To Expect
Sydney should have few problems disposing of the inconsistent Suns. The Swans have never lost to them with the margin never closer than 35 points. Sydney know they can get into the Top 8 with a win here and they will appreciate the looseness of the Gold Coast defence. Sydney are very reliable as a big favourite at home.
How It’s Shaping Up
Sydney by 50
Recommended Bet
Sydney -37.5 ($1.91)
Player Markets
Josh Kennedy has hit 35 touches in four of his last seven matches and there is no Sun to tag him up. Will see plenty of it.
Recommended Bet
Josh Kennedy 35+ Disposals ($2.65)
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