Serie A Betting: Back Milan as Napoli start to unravel

Napoli v Milan
Monday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport Europe

I'm surprised to see Milan available at 6.40 to beat Napoli: last weekend's defeat by Juventus, followed by a chastening Europa League reverse in Spain, means that there's a danger of Napoli's season unravelling. They know that they MUST beat Milan on Monday night, and that brings its own pressure.

Napoli did nothing wrong last Saturday, and they were unfortunate to lose in Turin, but they looked tired and uninspired against Villarreal on Thursday, and those are words that you can never justifiably use about Maurizio Sarri's team.

There's a chance that they can come roaring back, and having beaten Milan 4-0 earlier in the season they'll be confident of doing that, but this is a very different Rossoneri side. One that has picked up form, that looks super organised, and which hasn't lost away from home since November.

If you want to lay Napoli at 1.61 and keep the draw on your side then I wouldn't blame you, but I think that there's a realistic chance of a Rossoneri win, a far better chance than the odds would suggest.

Recommended Bet: Back Milan to beat Napoli @ 6.40

Inter v Sampdoria
Saturday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport Europe

There's also chance of a surprise win at San Siro this weekend. The last time that Sampdoria beat Inter here, Vincenzo Montella scored twice. Now he's in charge, and knows that the form of his team needs to pick up.

It might seem crazy to tip up Samp, who are in poorer form than anyone in Serie A, but there are reasons to get against Inter. Not just because they have a habit of throwing matches away (see last week against Fiorentina, a capitulation which cost this column) but because they'll be without three key players this weekend.

Gary Medel, Geoffrey Kondogbia and Alex Telles are all missing, and that could allow Sampdoria freedom to roam and, importantly, score. Only once this season have Inter managed more than one goal in a home game, and that makes them vulnerable.

Rather like the Napoli game, of course Inter can win, but the prices are wrong. Samp must stay strong for the opening half hour (they concede more goals in that period than any other team in Serie A), but if they do against a sluggish Inter, then they're in with a big chance here.

I'll say again, if you want to lay Inter at 1.61 then feel free: I'd prefer to take the big price on an away win though, as I think that it makes sense.

Recommended Bet: Back Sampdoria to beat Inter @ 6.40

Verona v Chievo
Saturday, 17:00
Live on BT Sport Europe

The Verona derby doesn't look the most appetising fixture of the weekend, and the fact that it's the early Saturday kick off takes off the edge even further, but I still think that we could be in for goals.

Verona are trying to blast their way out of trouble, and their last three games have produced a total of 16 goals. With Chievo's last three all having gone over the 2.5 mark, and with Verona likely to attack them, I think that this could be open, and Over 2.5 goals certainly shouldn't be trading at odds against.

It finished 1-1 earlier in the season, and 2-2 the time before that, and while I wouldn't pay much to watch Chievo, they can score goals when drawn into a battle. And that's exactly what will happen on Saturday afternoon.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals in Verona v Chievo @ 2.28