Cardiff v Brighton: All the stats point to another stalemate

Cardiff v Brighton
Saturday 20 February, 12:30
Live on Sky Sports 1

Cardiff

The Bluebirds are still in touch with the play-off spots, currently sitting ninth, five points behind sixth-placed Derby. They will be disappointed not to be a bit closer though having won just one(drawing the other three) of a four-game run against sides near the foot of the table (Charlton, MK Dons, Huddersfield and Rotherham).

On the other hand, though, you can say they have lost just one of their last eight in the league (away to leaders Hull) and have only lost once all season in front of their own fans - back in September, also against Steve Bruce's side co-incidentally. Lex Immers, on loan from Dutch outfit Feyenoord, has been an unused substitute in the last two games but the attacking midfielder could return to the starting line-up here as the home side look to add some goalscoring threat to their ranks.

Fellow loanee Sammy Ameobi is suspended after his red card at The Valley while Craig Nooneis unlikely to have recovered from the injury which has kept him out of the last three games.

Brighton

Chris Hughton's men continued their recent good form with a hard-earned goalless draw at leaders Hull on Tuesday night - David Stockdale keeping it level in the 90th minute with a superb save. That point followed four wins in a row - an emphatic turnaround after their poor Christmas and New Year period (eighth games without a win) - and moved them back into third place, just three points behind the top-of-the-table Tigers.

The last three of those wins were at the Amex Stadium, though, and the victory at Blackburn, which ended that winless streak, was their first on the road since mid-October. Conversely they have only lost once away from home all season. Eight goals in the three games prior to midweek will have brought the confidence flooding back with Tomer Hemed and Jamie Murphy each netting in both games.

Match Odds

Having had some nice televised games to preview recently, with stand out bets at odds against such as Brighton at home to Brentford a couple of weeks ago, the market reflects how tricky this one is to call - it's flip-flopped a couple of times already with City currently marginal favourites at [2.82], just ahead of Brighton at [2.84] and the draw no bigger than [3.3].

That short price about a stalemate does look understandable when you consider that Cardiff have drawn seven of their 15 home fixtures this season (47%) and the visitors have earned a point from ten of their 15 games on the road (66%) - in fact 13 of the Bluebirds' 31 matches have ended all-square, more than anybody bar Leeds in the Championship, while Albion have drawn just one less.

Hughton changed things about up at Hull, Bobby Zamora dropping to the bench in a 4-5-1 formation, much here could depend on whether he reverts to 4-4-2 with on-loan Manchester United striker James Wilson set to be fit again after injury. Although you sense Russell Slade's side really need the three points to start to put some heat on the teams above them in the race for a top six spot, given the stats highlighted above, the draw really does look the best value bet in this market once again.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Goals have been in short supply in the Championship this season with an average of just 2.38 per match compared to 2.67 last year and 2.6 the season before. That explains in part why unders is once again very short here at just [1.6] with overs a juicy [2.5] should you think we are in for any kind of lunchtime feast.

Albion's last four away games have seen only two goals in total, while City's two most results were goalless draws against lowly Charlton and MK Dons and four of the last five at the Cardiff City Stadium have gone under the 2.5 line - all of which suggests another low-scoring game is on the cards here.

That winger Noone is one of the Welshman's joint leading scorers this season with just five goals shows they don't have a particularly potent forward line so I'm backing under 1.5 goals at [2.84] as my second bet here.

Recommended Bets

Back the draw at [3.3]
Back under 1.5 goals at [2.84]