Chelsea v Man City: Back a tight game between two Premier League heavyweights

Chelsea v Man City
Sunday February 21, 16:00
Live on BBC 1

Chelsea

A disappointing reversal at the hands of Paris St Germain in the Champions League this week aside, Chelsea are in rude health under Guus Hiddink. We have to go all the way back to the 14th December to find a domestic defeat for the Blues, and the second half of the season looks set to be a far happier one than the first half was under Jose Mourinho.

What's more, Hiddink has pedigree in this competition - he won it with Chelsea back in 2009 and still hasn't lost a game in the FA Cup as manager of Chelsea across two spells.

The Blues look slightly light at the back going into this one - John Terry and Kurt Zouma are both out injured.

Man City

Given what's happened so far this season, it feels strange to be calling Chelsea the form team going into a game against Man City, but that's the fact of the matter currently. City have lost their last two in the league, albeit against good teams in the shape of Leicester and Tottenham Hotspur, and have picked up 15 points in their last ten games, compared to Chelsea's 18.

It's interesting to note that City's form has taken something of a dip since it was announced thatManuel Pellegrini wouldn't be continuing as manager next season, and despite several of the squad stating they wanted to play for him, I wonder whether the concentration or performance level has dropped slightly.

Of course, it could also be that they have key players missing through injury - Kevin De Bruyne, Fabian Delph and Jesus Navas will all miss out on Sunday, and Wilfried Bony and Bacary Sagna are facing fitness tests.

Match Odds

Chelsea start as big favourites for this game, a sign that punters are recognising their quality and improvement under Hiddink. Odds-on for the win at 1.91 they perhaps rate a little short as a back given the talent City have at their disposal, but nonetheless I certainly rate them as most likely to win it.

Man City trade at a big 4.50, and if they were in that 'steamroller' mode they sometimes slot into (usually when Vincent Kompany, Joe Hart and Sergio Aguero are all fit and firing) it would be hard to see them being priced up that big. But, the simple fact is that they're not, despite those personnel all likely to play. Kompany looked decent enough last time out but he's not at peak form yet and that's important.

The Draw trades at 3.85.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Four of the last five games between these two sides have finished with fewer than three goals in them, the exception being the last affair which finished 3-0 to City during the terrible startChelsea endured back in August under Mourinho. Overall it's been fairly even between these two, and fairly low-scoring, at least recently.

I think we'd be able to get 2.00 on Under 2.5 Goals once the market firms up a bit on the Exchange and that's where my money will be going.

Overs currently trades at a shorter price of 1.89 and that holds no interest for me, currently.

Half Time

I like 6/5 on the Sportsbook of the first half ending in a draw. An odds-against priceon what is likely to be an even game, especially in the first half, is tempting. Around half of the Premier League games involving these two teams have been draws at the break, and so an odds-against price is a value bet.

Recommended Bets

Back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.00