Leeds v Middlesbrough: Back Boro to bounce back

Leeds v Middlesbrough
Monday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Leeds

United sit in 16th place in the table with a comfortable 11-point cushion separating them from the relegation spots so Steve Evans can start to plan for next season really - if he dares look that far ahead with the erratic Massimo Cellino still in charge at the club.

They were beaten 1-0 at home by Nottingham Forest, continuing an inconsistent recent run and have only won one of their last eight in the league, although they have beaten Championship strugglers Rotherham and Bolton in the FA Cup in that period.

Midfielder Alex Mowatt is in contention to return here but top scorer Chris Wood is still injured.

Middlesbrough

The Teesiders went back top of the Championship on Tuesday night (overtaken by Hull again on Saturday) but it was hardly in the most emphatic of styles, needing an injury time equaliser from new £9m hitman Jordan Rhodes to scramble a point at lowly MK Dons. It did at least show why Aitor Karanka splashed the cash on the Blackburn striker and we can surely expect him to start here, having had to be content with a spot on the bench in midweek.

The title challengers' form has been patchy in the last few weeks though with some poor performances and results - they are now four games without a win and have won just one of the last six in all competitions since what appeared at the time to be a season-defining 2-0 home win over Derby on the first Saturday of the New Year. Defenders Daniel Ayala and George Friend will both miss out again through injury.

Match Odds

Boro may be without a win in their last four but they are still favourites here at 2.22 with 3.90available about the home win and the draw 3.30 to back. A look at their away form does give some encouragement to those tempted by the chance to back them to bounce back to form at better than evens - seven wins on the road is the best record of any second tier side this season (along with Ipswich).

Add to that the fact that United have won just four of 15 at Elland Road and Boro bouncing back to form with an away win starts to look quite attractive play. With Rhodes certain to give them that cutting edge in the opposition's box they have been lacking I'm happy to take the price about Karanka's men going back top of the table.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

Unders is once again priced up very short at 1.55 with the layers running for cover - probably no surprise given Boro have the best defensive record in the division (just 16 goals conceded). In fact just one of their last 13 matches has gone over 2.5 goals so it would take a bit of a leap of faith to back that even at the juicy 2.66 available.

In addition, the hosts have only managed to score 29 times in their 30 league games this season, all of which points to unders landing once again but at the very skinny price on offer I'm going to take a chance in the correct score market instead.

Correct Score

Although Boro haven't been firing on all cylinders lately, Karanka is clearly a pretty cool customer and I can't see him changing his approach dramatically here. Those tactics away from home have always been to soak up what their hosts can offer and strike on the break.

So with the enhanced firepower he has in the form of Scottish international Rhodes backing the visitors to win 1-0 is the second recommended bet. It's no better than 6.60 but that reflects the home side's lack of penetration in attack - particularly without Wood - and a confidence in Boro's ability to grind out the win and get their promotion campaign back on track.

Recommended Bets

Back Middlesbrough to win at 2.22 *best bet
Back 0-1 correct scoreline at 6.60