ATP Wimbledon Quarter-Final Tips

ATP Wimbledon Quarter-Final Tips: Nadal and Kyrgios set for final four

Quarter-final matches in the men's singles at Wimbledon continue on Wednesday, with two players heavy favourites to make the semi-finals. Dan Weston sees if they can be beaten...

Kyrgios likely to ease past Garin

Both Christian Garin and Nick Kyrgios won dramatic five-setters on Monday, with Garin shocking Alex De Minaur in a final set tiebreak after losing the first two sets in a match lasting over 4.5 hours.

Kyrgios had to fight to defeat the talented young American, Brandon Nakashima, but his five set match took an hour and a half less, so simply from a fatigue perspective, the Australian goes into this match with the advantage.

Any follower of tennis will know this isn't the only advantage which Kyrgios possesses for this match-up.

He's simply the better grass-court player by an absolute mile, with Garin doing his best work on clay generally - for him to get to this stage is an unbelievable achievement.

Over the last 24 months on grass, Kyrgios has won over 11% more service points and that's where this match-up is likely to be decided - his serve is likely to be too consistent for the Chilean on Wednesday. The current Exchange market agrees, pricing up Kyrgios at 1.24.

Fritz's serve and Nadal's return to decide quarter-final

The other heavy favourite on Wednesday is Rafa Nadal, who has a different dynamic to Kyrgios as one of the best returners on tour. He's 1.39 to move beyond Taylor Fritz, who continues to impress on grass - he's a fast condition specialist who is improving.

Fritz beat Nadal, surprisingly, in slower conditions at Indian Wells in March when Nadal was priced at around the 1.20 mark, so the market is giving the American an even greater chance today to shock the King of Clay and make the semi-finals.

The match should be decided by Fritz's serve and Nadal's return; over the last 24 months on grass, Fritz has held serve 89% of the time, but he won't have faced many players of Nadal's calibre and ability on return.

Nadal is breaking opposition over 30% of the time in this tournament so far, so this is evidently the key battle for this clash.

I have Nadal slightly shorter - around the 1.35 mark - but it's not a huge discrepancy on the market pricing, so as is often the case towards the business end of Slams, I'm in broad agreement with the Exchange at the time of writing for both matches on Wednesday.