AFL Preview: Port Adelaide v Carlton

Port Adelaide v Carlton
Friday 7:20pm at Adelaide Oval

Carlton face their toughest test of the season under the lights of the Adelaide Oval.

Form

Port Adelaide matched it with the premiership favourite GWS Giants for 3 quarters last week before falling off a cliff in the last term to go down by 31. The Power led by 4 points at the end of the third quarter but could only manage one behind in a final term completely dominated by the Giants. Stats wise, they had 112 less disposals than the Giants and only used the ball at a 69% efficiency rating. The Power lost the contested disposals and tackle count and will need to turn that around this week to get a win over the Blues.

Carlton played two and a half quarters of solid footy against the Suns but midway through the third term dropped off completely to go down by 26 points. Carlton had a massive 120 less disposals than the Suns and simply couldn’t get their hands on the ball. The tackling pressure was there however, laying 82 tackles to just the 44 for the Suns in a bright spot for the Blues.

Stats That Matter

• Port average 107.1 points per game in their last 7 against the Blues
• 4 of the last 6 meetings have gone over the game total
• Port average 114 points per game in their last 3 against Carlton in Adelaide
• Port have lost 5 of their last 6 matches at home against all opponents
• 5 of the last 7 Port home games have finished under the game total
• 15 of the last 18 Port Adelaide night matches against all opponents has finished under the game total
• Carlton have won just 3 of their last 15 interstate matches at a POT of -69%
• 11 of the last 15 Carlton interstate matches have finished under the game total
• Carlton average just 66.9 points per game in interstate matches since 2012

Betting Data

2017 Line: Port Adelaide 2-2, Carlton 2-2,
2017 Over/Under: Port Adelaide 2-2, Carlton 2-2

What To Expect

The Wolf cannot work out why this game gets the Friday night time slot but to help make things interesting I’ve found a bet. Carlton really struggle to score at home and also on the road, averaging just 66.9 points per game in interstate matches since 2012. Port Adelaide also struggle to score under the lights of the Adelaide Oval with 15 of their last 18 home matches finishing under the starting game total. Tom Lynch got hold of Sam Rowe last week finishing with 6 goals and the Suns scored 108 points from just 23 scoring shots at a terrific conversion rate. Most clubs won’t score 17 goals 6 behinds like the Suns did last week and the score line should have been a lot closer than the 26 point final margin. I’m holding faith in the Blues defence to concede less than 100 in this one, but cannot see the Blues forwards scoring more than 70 given their lack of gun forwards. For this reason the Wolf will be on the unders in the game total market.

How Its Shaping Up

Port Adelaide By 31

Recommended Bet

Best: Under 178.5 Points ($1.88)

Player Markets

The Wolf has to tip his hat to Marc Murphy for his stellar start to 2017. Murph has scored more than 120 fantasy points in all 4 matches this season, becoming the only player in the competition to do this. He now averages 31.5 disposals, 5.5 marks, 7 tackles, 0.8 goals and 133.3 points per game. His record in his last 2 against Port is great averaging 27.5 disposals, 3 marks, 4.5 tackles, 1 goal and 106.5 fantasy points per game.

Ollie Wines is the only player averaging over 25 disposals per game for the Power in 2017, essentially playing a lone hand in the midfield. Given this match looks to be a low scoring, grinding affair under lights, the Wolf can see Ollie applying a heap of tackles and getting plenty of in close disposals.

Recommended Bet
Prop: Ollie Wines 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.80)