South Sydney Rabbitohs v Brisbane Broncos
Friday, April 21, 7:50pm (AEST), ANZ Stadium, Sydney
The Broncos had to do it the hard way in Round 7, but got out of a jail against the Titans courtesy of a Matt Gillett charge down, followed by a James Roberts four-pointer. Meanwhile, the Rabbitohs were held scoreless in the second half against the Bulldogs in their Good Friday clash and will be boosted by the news that Sam Burgess will be available after he was cleared at the judiciary for a shoulder charge. Joe Ofahengaue has been named on the Broncos bench as cover for Tevita Pangai Junior, who is out for a extended period with a finger injury.
History
The Rabbitohs have lost three-straight to the Broncos, but did win four in a row before the current losing streak. The Broncos won both clashes in 2016, with a 30-8 victory at Suncorp Stadium in Round 8 and a 30-10 win at ANZ Stadium in Round 19. Winger Corey Oates crossed for a double in the Broncos 20-point win in Sydney.
The Rabbitohs have lost three-straight to the Broncos, but did win four in a row before the current losing streak. The Broncos won both clashes in 2016, with a 30-8 victory at Suncorp Stadium in Round 8 and a 30-10 win at ANZ Stadium in Round 19. Winger Corey Oates crossed for a double in the Broncos 20-point win in Sydney.
Form
South Sydney are down to 10th on the ladder with a 3-4 record following losses in three of their last four. Their only win in the last month came against a depleted Penrith team with losses to the Roosters, Cowboys and Bulldogs where they were kept to single digits in each. Souths have conceded at least 18 in every match this year. Brisbane have put together back-to-back wins for the first time this season after an impressive win over the Sydney Roosters and a last-minute win over the Gold Coast. The Broncos conceded more than 18 points for just the second time this year in their win against Gold Coast. The Broncos rank fourth in defence.
South Sydney are down to 10th on the ladder with a 3-4 record following losses in three of their last four. Their only win in the last month came against a depleted Penrith team with losses to the Roosters, Cowboys and Bulldogs where they were kept to single digits in each. Souths have conceded at least 18 in every match this year. Brisbane have put together back-to-back wins for the first time this season after an impressive win over the Sydney Roosters and a last-minute win over the Gold Coast. The Broncos conceded more than 18 points for just the second time this year in their win against Gold Coast. The Broncos rank fourth in defence.
Key Matchup
Cody Walker v Anthony Milford. Both Walker and Milford are two of the form five-eighths in the game and also two of the most explosive ball runners. Walker has been arguably the Rabbitohs best player over the opening seven rounds. If he’s not breaking tackles and scoring tries, he’s setting them up! Walker already has eight try-assists for the season and has made an incredible 11 line-breaks. Milford has been equally as impressive and is one of the most difficult players to stop whether he’s making a tackle-break or producing an offload. He has added responsibility in the absence of Ben Hunt and needs to take the pressure off the inexperienced Kodi Nikorima.
Cody Walker v Anthony Milford. Both Walker and Milford are two of the form five-eighths in the game and also two of the most explosive ball runners. Walker has been arguably the Rabbitohs best player over the opening seven rounds. If he’s not breaking tackles and scoring tries, he’s setting them up! Walker already has eight try-assists for the season and has made an incredible 11 line-breaks. Milford has been equally as impressive and is one of the most difficult players to stop whether he’s making a tackle-break or producing an offload. He has added responsibility in the absence of Ben Hunt and needs to take the pressure off the inexperienced Kodi Nikorima.
Stats That Matter
South Sydney are 3-4 ATS with a 4-3 over record while Brisbane are 3-4 ATS with a 4-3 over record. Brisbane have won three straight against the Rabbitohs by margins of 20, 22 and 35 with the last eight matches all tallying over 38 points. Home underdogs of 4.5 or more Round 5-8 are 33-20 ATS while those who were kept to 12 or under are 4-4 ATS. Those off a loss of 13 or more are 17-8 ATS. Brisbane are 8-12 ATS as a road favourite while they are 2-6 ATS on the road when favoured by 4.5 or more. They are 0-5 ATS when favoured by 6.5 or more.
South Sydney are 3-4 ATS with a 4-3 over record while Brisbane are 3-4 ATS with a 4-3 over record. Brisbane have won three straight against the Rabbitohs by margins of 20, 22 and 35 with the last eight matches all tallying over 38 points. Home underdogs of 4.5 or more Round 5-8 are 33-20 ATS while those who were kept to 12 or under are 4-4 ATS. Those off a loss of 13 or more are 17-8 ATS. Brisbane are 8-12 ATS as a road favourite while they are 2-6 ATS on the road when favoured by 4.5 or more. They are 0-5 ATS when favoured by 6.5 or more.
Final Thoughts
The Broncos should do enough to get the two competition points here and look to have the upper hand in the forward pack. Look for the likes of Adam Blair and Sam Thaiday to place pressure on Adam Reynolds’ kicking game, setting up good field position for the Broncos to attack. The Wolf can’t see a blow out and recommends backing the Broncos 1-12.
The Broncos should do enough to get the two competition points here and look to have the upper hand in the forward pack. Look for the likes of Adam Blair and Sam Thaiday to place pressure on Adam Reynolds’ kicking game, setting up good field position for the Broncos to attack. The Wolf can’t see a blow out and recommends backing the Broncos 1-12.
How It’s Shaping Up
Brisbane by 4
Brisbane by 4
Best Bet
Brisbane 1-12 ($3)
Brisbane 1-12 ($3)
Other Recommended Bets
Over 39.5 ($1.88)
Over 39.5 ($1.88)
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