AFL Preview: St Kilda v Geelong

St Kilda v Geelong
Sunday 3:20pm at Etihad Stadium

Can the Cats make it 5 straight or will the Saints make it 3 in a row? 

Form

St Kilda defeated the Pies by 14 points last week on the back of a game plan that simply starved the Pies of the ball. Dylan Roberton and Jack Newnes were the chief beneficiaries of the game plan as the Saints had 43 more marks and 34 more uncontested possessions than the Pies.

Geelong completely dismantled a Hawthorn side that is being made to look second rate so far in 2017. The Cats ran out resounding 84-point winners thanks in large to a 11 goal to 2 final quarter. The Cats had more disposals, inside 50’s and contested possessions on their way to their 4^th straight victory.

Stats That Matter

• St Kilda are 0-5 straight up in their last 5 against Geelong
• St Kilda average a low 68.2 points per game in their last 5 against Geelong
• In Round 21, 2015 these two sides played out a 97 all draw
• The last 2 matches have been decided by 3 and 0 points.
• Geelong average 116.6 points per game in their last 5 against St Kilda
• Geelong are 20 from their past 25 straight up at Etihad at a POT of 15%
• Geelong have won their last 6 matches at Etihad against all opposition
• Geelong have scored over 100 points in 5 of their last 6 matches at Etihad

Betting Data

2017 Line: St Kilda 2-2, Geelong 3-1
2017 Over/Under: St Kilda 2-2, Geelong 3-1

What To Expect

Two in form sides will go head to head in one of the most anticipated clashes of the round. From 2012 to 2014 the Cats had 3 resounding wins over the Saints by an average margin of 79.6 points, including one victory by 101 points. Since 2015 however, the Saints have fought back earning a draw in 2015 and losing by just the 3 points in 2016. The Saints should welcome back Jack Steven from a lung issue sustained in Perth 3 weeks ago and his inclusion should bolster a midfield that defeated the Pies guns last week. For the Cats, hunger will be their biggest opponent this week as they have strung 4 wins together already they may find themselves not as eager as the Saints to collect the win. The recent history suggests the Saints are due for a win after closing the gap over the past 2 years and at their home venue will take the Cats right down to the wire.

How Its Shaping Up

St Kilda By 6

Recommended Bet

Best: St Kilda +15.5 ($1.91)

Player Markets

Nick Riewoldt looks to be well and truly over his knee issue he suffered in round 1 as he has been outstanding so far in 2017. In his 3 matches to date, Riewoldt averages 21.3 disposals, 10.3 marks, 3 tackles, 2.7 goals and 119.3 points per game. He also has great recent form against Geelong as in his last 2 matches against them he averages 24 disposals, 10 marks, 4 tackles and 114.5 fantasy points.

Mitch Duncan has been a terrific third wheel to Danger and Selwood so fair in 2017. Duncan averages 28.5 disposals, 6.3 marks, 4.5 tackles, 1 goal and 110.5 points per game. He too, like Riewoldt has form in recent matches between these two. In his last 3 against the Saints, Duncan averages 23 disposals, 11 marks, 3.7 tackles, 1 goal and 111.7 points per game. The Wolf will be looking closely at markets around these two jets.

Recommended Bet
Prop: Mitch Duncan 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.05)