North Queensland Cowboys v Newcastle Knights
Saturday, April 22, 5:30pm (AEST), 1300Smiles Stadium, Townsville
The Cowboys showed plenty of fight in last week’s loss to the Dragons, eventually going down by six-points after trailing 28-4 at half-time. John Asiata has been named in the halves again in the absence of Johnathan Thurston and was arguably one of the Cowboys best in the loss to the Dragons. The Knights can’t buy a win at the moment and it doesn’t get much tougher than a road trip to Townsville. The silver lining is that Thurston won’t be there.
History
The Cowboys have won 7 of their last 10 against the Knights including a 46-16 victory in their only meeting last year. Kyle Feldt and Ray Thompson scored doubles in the big win. Three of the last four matches have topped 50 points.
The Cowboys have won 7 of their last 10 against the Knights including a 46-16 victory in their only meeting last year. Kyle Feldt and Ray Thompson scored doubles in the big win. Three of the last four matches have topped 50 points.
Form
North Queensland have dropped their last two with a home loss to the Tigers seeing Johnathan Thurston injured and then following that up with a 28-22 loss to the in-form Dragons in Wollongong. The Cowboys have scored over 21 points just once this year while they have lost two of their last three home games to Manly and the Tigers. Newcastle have won just one games in 2017 and just two since the start of last year, dropping five on end this year. They are 0-3 on the road this year but two of their losses have been by single scores. They have conceded more than 24 in just one of their last five and more than 26 just once this year.
North Queensland have dropped their last two with a home loss to the Tigers seeing Johnathan Thurston injured and then following that up with a 28-22 loss to the in-form Dragons in Wollongong. The Cowboys have scored over 21 points just once this year while they have lost two of their last three home games to Manly and the Tigers. Newcastle have won just one games in 2017 and just two since the start of last year, dropping five on end this year. They are 0-3 on the road this year but two of their losses have been by single scores. They have conceded more than 24 in just one of their last five and more than 26 just once this year.
Key Matchup
Michael Morgan v Trent Hodkinson. Morgan scored a try and had a hand in another in the loss to the Dragons last week. If anything he was guilty of trying too hard with a few errors in his game. The performance of John Asiata at least takes some pressure of Morgan and allows him to play his natural game. Hodkinson has just the three try-assists for the season and has been steady at best. He’s best asset is his kicking game and he needs to make sure it’s on song if the Knights are to stay in this one.
Michael Morgan v Trent Hodkinson. Morgan scored a try and had a hand in another in the loss to the Dragons last week. If anything he was guilty of trying too hard with a few errors in his game. The performance of John Asiata at least takes some pressure of Morgan and allows him to play his natural game. Hodkinson has just the three try-assists for the season and has been steady at best. He’s best asset is his kicking game and he needs to make sure it’s on song if the Knights are to stay in this one.
Stats That Matter
North Queensland are 4-3 ATS with a 4-3 over record 3-4 ATS with a 5-2 under record. The Cowboys have won 7 of their last 10 against the Knights including a 46-16 victory in their only meeting last year. Three of the last four matches have topped 50 points. The Cowboys have won just 3 of their last 14 without Johnathan Thurston. The Cowboys have covered just 1 of their last 4 as a home favourite of more than a converted try while they are 12-7 ATS with a 12-7 under record as a big home favourite off a loss. Newcastle have covered 8 of their last 13 on the road getting 6.5 or more off a loss of 13.
North Queensland are 4-3 ATS with a 4-3 over record 3-4 ATS with a 5-2 under record. The Cowboys have won 7 of their last 10 against the Knights including a 46-16 victory in their only meeting last year. Three of the last four matches have topped 50 points. The Cowboys have won just 3 of their last 14 without Johnathan Thurston. The Cowboys have covered just 1 of their last 4 as a home favourite of more than a converted try while they are 12-7 ATS with a 12-7 under record as a big home favourite off a loss. Newcastle have covered 8 of their last 13 on the road getting 6.5 or more off a loss of 13.
Final Thoughts
The Cowboys have struggled in Townsville this year, but should be too strong for the Knights here. The Knights are showing more fight in their matches in recent times and the 9.5 might be too much to cover for the Thurston-less Cowboys.
The Cowboys have struggled in Townsville this year, but should be too strong for the Knights here. The Knights are showing more fight in their matches in recent times and the 9.5 might be too much to cover for the Thurston-less Cowboys.
How It’s Shaping Up
North Queensland by 6
North Queensland by 6
Best Bet
Newcastle +9.5 ($1.91)
Newcastle +9.5 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
Over 43.5 ($1.88)
Over 43.5 ($1.88)
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