AFL Preview: Magpies v Saints

Collingwood v St Kilda
Sunday 3:20pm at Etihad Stadium

This one shapes as the most even contest of the round.

Form

The Pies were heavily supported at the line last week moving from +23.5 to +12.5 against the Swans. The Punters were spot on as they defeated Sydney by a point at the SCG. The Pies had 70 more disposals and 27 more tackles than the Swans showing that they can grind out a tough win on the road.

St Kilda weren’t great but was good enough to get the win over Brisbane at Etihad last week. The Saints had 13 more inside 50’s and 21 more contested possessions than their opponents. They kicked a poor 14 goals, 23 behinds so punters on the Saints minus can consider themselves unlucky as they had the scoring shots to win this one by 60.

Stats That Matter

– Collingwood have won 4 of the last 5 against St Kilda.
– Collingwood average 112.8 points per game in their last 5 against St Kilda.
– The last 3 matches have gone over the game total.
– Collingwood are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 against St Kilda.
– Collingwood are 1-6 Straight Up against all opposition in their last 7 matches at Etihad.?
– St Kilda average 119.3 points per game in their last 3 at Etihad.
– Collingwood have won the last 2 matches against St Kilda at Etihad by an average of 56 points.
– St Kilda have scored over 100 points in 8 of their last 14 matches at Etihad

Betting Data

2017 Line: Collingwood 2-1, St Kilda 1-2
2017 Over/Under: Collingwood 1-2, St Kilda 2-1

What To Expect

Collingwood will be looking to build on their momentum after defeating the Swans last week. The Pies will fancy themselves in this clash as their midfield is rated far higher by Champion Data than that of the Saints, who will again be without star Jack Steven. The Wolf is expecting a high scoring contest here under the roof as Collingwood average 112.8 points per game in their last 5 against the Saints and St Kilda have eclipsed the 100 point mark 8 times out of their last 14 matches at Etihad. Nick Riewoldt made a super recovery from a knee injury to star last week and help get the Saints over the line. He will be looking to run Ben Reid and Jeremy Howe all over Etihad and link up play between defence and attack. With no Jack Steven for the Saints exposing a weak midfield underbelly, the Wolf will be taking the Pies midfield to run the Saints into the ground here.

How Its Shaping Up

Collingwood By 8

Recommended Bet

Collingwood 1-39 ($2.40)

Player Markets

We must acknowledge the Pies midfield here that has been superb so far in 2017. In fantasy point scoring alone they are well ahead of any other team. They have 6 players averaging over 104 points per game, including 3 over 120. Of these guns, Pendlebury has the best recent record against the Saints, averaging 29 disposals, 4.8 marks, 4.5 tackles and 111.8 points per game in his last 4.

For the Saints, Leigh Montagna looks to be over his calf issues as he had a day out against the Lions. Montagna finished with 30 disposals, 9 marks, 4 tackles, 1 goal and 135 points. In his last 3 against the Pies, Montagna averages 32.3 disposals, 9 marks, 2.7 tackles and 122.7 points per game. The Wolf can see the Pies midfield being unaccountable again here and can see Montagna get plenty of the ball on Saturday night.

Recommended Bet

Leigh Montagna 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.25)