AFL Preview: Lions v Tigers

Brisbane v Richmond
Sunday 4:40pm at Gabba

Can Richmond continue their fairytale and remain unbeaten in 2017?

Form

Brisbane travelled down to Melbourne to face an understrength St Kilda outfit. St Kilda were ahead in every major stat category however the Lions made the most of their limited inside 50’s and hit the front mid-way through the third term. Eventually the Brisbane of old returned and they allowed the Saints to run away with the match going down by 31 points.

Richmond is 3-0 and playing high intensity, finals like football. When the going got tough in the second half last week against the Eagles, it was the Tigers who stepped up and won the contested ball by 25. The forward line pressure of Riewoldt has been outstanding and they managed to kick 11 goals, 10 behinds in tough conditions to get the win by 11.

Stats That Matter

– Brisbane average a low 67 points per game in their last 6 against Richmond.
– 4 of the last 5 matches have gone under the game total.
– Brisbane have not scored over 84 points in their last 6 against Richmond.
– Richmond average 110.2 points per game in their last 6 against Brisbane.
– Richmond have an average winning margin over Brisbane of 43.2 points in their last 6.
– 7 of the last 8 daytime games at the GABBA have gone over the game total.
– Brisbane have only won 2 of their last 13 daytime matches at the GABBA.
– Brisbane allow opposition teams an average of 120.5 points per game in their last 11 daytime matches at the GABBA.
– Richmond are 3-0 ATS in the last 3 matches against Brisbane at the GABBA.
– Richmond average 125 points per game in their last 3 against Brisbane at the GABBA

Betting Data

2017 Line: Brisbane 2-1, Richmond 3-0
2017 Over/Under: Brisbane 2-1, Richmond 1-2

What To Expect

All the stats here are pointing towards a convincing Richmond victory. The Tigers have the form on the board at the GABBA, winning and covering their last 3 matches against the Lions there. Brisbane will need to apply scoreboard pressure on the Tigers, as their low average of just 67 points per game in their last 6 against them will not get them over the line this week. Richmond will be looking to continue their dominance and if they can kick their average of 110.2 points in recent history against the Lions, they should get the victory. This match is being played in the afternoon, and if history repeats itself we are in for a high scoring affair. Richmond average 125 points per game in their last 3 daytime games at GABBA and the Wolf will be on the Tigers here to put on another big total.

How Its Shaping Up

Richmond By 30

Recommended Bet

Richmond -17.5 ($1.91)

Player Markets

Brisbane’s gun midfielders have been superb so far in 2017, with all of Rockliff, Martin, Beams and Zorko averaging over 113 fantasy points per game. The last time these sides met Rockliff had 30 disposals, but given the market has accounted for these high totals, the Wolf will be staying away and seeking value on the Tigers players.

Dustin Martin has the form on the board in 2017 and against the Lions in recent times. In his last 3 against the Lions, Martin averages 32.7 disposals, 3.7 marks, 3.3 tackles, 2.7 goals and 127 points per game. Trent Cotchin is coming off a 34 disposal effort against West Coast last week and like Martin, also has the recent form against Brisbane. Cotchin averages 32.3 disposals, 3.7 tackles and 107.3 points per game in his last 3 against Brisbane. The Wolf will be backing the skipper in to have another big game.

Recommended Bet
Trent Cotchin 30+ Disposals ($2.00)