Western Bulldogs v Brisbane
Saturday 1:45pm at Etihad Stadium

The Dogs will come out firing to help celebrate Bob Murphy’s 300th game. 
The Dogs played in the first ever Good Friday match against the Roos last week and came away with a 3-point victory. Despite having 29 scoring shots to 26, the Dogs should consider themselves lucky to get the win as Lindsay Thomas butchered 2 chances to win the game in the last quarter. The Dogs led for only 35 minutes in this game, including being down by 4 goals half way through the third term. Good sides find ways to win when they really shouldn’t and that’s what the Dogs did here.
Brisbane were never in the contest against a Tigers side ho were on a 3 match winning streak. The Lions trailed at every term to go down by 52 points, a score line which flattered them in the end. The Lions allowed the Tigers 34 scoring shots from 60 inside 50’s, a number that is far too high compared to the competition. They were however outstanding around the clearances, led by Stef Martin and Tom Rockliff who is currently the leading clearance player in the AFL.
Stats That Matter
  • Bulldogs have won just 3 of the past 8 against the Lions at a POT of -37%
  • 6 of the last 7 matches between these two has seen the game total go over
  • The average game score in the last 7 matches is a high 197.4 points
  • The Dogs average 107.2 points in their 5 against Brisbane at Etihad
  • 3 of the last 4 matches between the two at Etihad have gone over the game total
  • Brisbane are 5 and 13 ATS in Interstate matches since round 10, 2015
  • Brisbane has conceded 100 or more points 13 times out of their last 14 interstate matches
  • Brisbane concede 109.6 points per game in their last 19 matches at Etihad
Betting Data
2017 Line: Western Bulldogs 1-3, Brisbane 2-2
2017 Over/Under: Western Bulldogs 2-2, Brisbane 2-2
What To Expect
Despite being 1-3 ATS, the Dogs are 3-1 straight up so far in 2017 and will welcome a Brisbane side to Melbourne that has struggled to play recent good footy Interstate. The Dogs will be without Travis Cloke who will be out for a few weeks with broken ribs so they will look to play more through Stringer until he can get back on the park. Expect Bob Murphy and Bontempelli to spend more time forward to help fill the void left by Cloke. The Dogs should run up 120+ points here as the Lions defence continues to let itself down when playing interstate. The attack of Brisbane isn’t faring much better as each week their scoring has declined from 98 in round 1 to 84, 76 and 67 last week against Richmond. All signs are pointing towards a big Dogs win here and the Wolf will be on them to help celebrate Bob’s 300th with a big win.
How Its Shaping Up
Bulldogs By 50
Recommended Bet
Best: Bulldogs 40+ ($1.82)
Player Markets
The Dogs have been sharing the load so far in 2017, with a different player stepping up each game to help get them over the line. The midfielders of Bontempelli, Macrae, Dahlhaus, Liberatore and Hunter all average between 93 and 107 fantasy points per game and it’s this evenness across the park that will scare the Wolf away from finding one player in particular to stand out here.
Brisbane on the other hand has a core group of 4 players who continually play out of their skin each and every week. The likes of Rockliff, Zorko and Beams continue to get plenty of the ball and Stef Martin has arguably been their best player to date. Martin averages 21.3 disposals, 4.8 marks, 42.8 hit outs and 115.5 fantasy points per game so far in 2017. When we consider the Dogs ruck stocks to be quite thin with just Tom Campbell there and the fact that Goldstein scored 112 on them last week sharing the ruck with Preuss, the Wolf can see a huge score coming Martin’s way in this one.
Recommended Bet
Stef Martin 120+ Fantasy Points ($2.65)

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