AFL Preview: Sydney v GWS

Sydney v GWS
Saturday 7:25pm at SCG

Can the Swans be the first team since 1975 to start 0-4 and make the finals? 

Form

The Swans took it right up to the Eagles last Thursday and midway through the final term only trailed by a single goal. It was another credible effort from the Swans who played most of the game with Buddy on one leg after an early knock and the likes of Tippett, Heeney, Rampe and McVeigh still on the sidelines. The Swans won the contested possession count, however were well beaten on the outside with West Coast having 45 more uncontested possessions and 26 more marks.

The Giants have been one of the hottest teams in the AFL since they were soundly beaten by Adelaide in the opening round. They didn’t have the game last week against Port all their own way, and in fact were trailing by a goal late in the third quarter. The Giants 4^th quarter was just incredible and they showed they could kick their performance into another gear by dismantling the Power. They managed 11 scoring shots (5 goals, 6 behinds) to just the one behind for the Power in the final term and ended up covering the 19.5 point spread.

Stats That Matter

• GWS have won their last 2 against the Swans by an average of 39 points
• GWS are 7-4 ATS in matches against the Swans since 2012
• The Game total has finished under on 5 of the past 7 meetings
• Sydney average a low 70.33 points per game in their last 3 against GWS
• GWS have only scored more than 100 points on one occasion in their last 11 against the Swans
• Sydney will be outsiders this week, the first time they have ever started as outsiders against GWS at the SCG
• The last 2 games between these sides at the SCG average a low 153.5 points per game

Betting Data

2017 Line: Sydney 0-4, GWS 3-1
2017 Over/Under: Sydney 2-2, GWS 2-2

What To Expect

Sydney should welcome back some familiar faces at the selection desk this week as they desperately seek their first win of 2017. There will be plenty of pressure put on these players to perform immediately, but the Wolf is expecting them to be a little rusty considering for many, this will be there first match since the JLT series. Callum Sinclair rucked solo last week and with big Shane Mumford rucking for the Giants, expect the Swans to bring in another tall to assist him in this one. GWS enter the game full of confidence after being 3-0 ATS in their last 3 matches of 2017. The midfield match up of the Giants Kelly, Ward and Scully up against Kennedy, Hannebery and Parker of the Swans will be worth the cost of admission itself as this will be where the game is won or lost for either team. It’s clear that across the field now the Giants have the better squad, though the Wolf is expecting the Swans to be more desperate than the Giants and take this game deep into the fourth quarter.

How Its Shaping Up

GWS By 6

Recommended Bet

Best: Sydney +14.5 ($1.91)

Player Markets

The Swans midfield just hasn’t been its usual productive self in 2017. Numbers are falling across the board for the likes of Kennedy, Parker and especially Hannebery who are just finding it hard to get their hands on the ball. With the ball spending more time in defence, Jake Lloyd has been racking it up averaging 30 disposals per game in 2017, up from 24.4 in 2016.

The Giants have been lead by Josh Kelly through the midfield so far in 2017. Kelly is averaging 28.8 disposals, 5.3 tackles, 1 goal and 109.5 fantasy points per game so far in 2017, all of which are career highs. One player to catch the Wolfs eye last week was Toby Greene, whose work rate against Port Adelaide was second to none. Greene roamed from inside 50 up to the wings in Canberra and finished with 16 disposals and 4 goals for the match. His recent record against Sydney is fantastic as he booted 2 and 4 goals in his last 2 matches against the Swans. With this game likely to be won or lost in the midfield though, the Wolf will be sticking with Josh Kelly to gather plenty of the ball and have another big fantasy point outing.

Recommended Bet
Prop: Josh Kelly 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.10)