Hawthorn v Geelong
Easter Monday 3:20pm at MCG



Can the undefeated Cats win again or will the Hawks record their first win of 2017?
Form
Geelong defeated a Melbourne side without Jordan Lewis and Jesse Hogan last week by 29 points. Big ruckman Max Gawn went off the ground injured just after quarter time and did not return. This left the Dees one short and the Cats were able to run over the top of them in the last quarter and cover the spread.
Hawthorn was nothing short of atrocious on the road against a previously struggling Gold Coast side. The Hawks were thumped on the scoreboard and in major stat categories such as disposals (343 to 498), inside 50’s (36 to 64) and contested possessions (118 to 180). The Hawks are now 0-3 Straight up and 0-3 ATS in a tough start to 2017.
Stats That Matter
– Geelong have won 7 of the past 12 against Hawthorn at a POT of 44%.
– The game total has gone over in the last 3 meetings between these sides.
– Geelong are 1 from 6 ATS in the last 6 matches against Hawthorn.
– Geelong are 4 from 5 ATS in afternoon matches against the Hawks.
– In 4 of the last 5 afternoon matches both sides have managed at least 85 points each.
– Hawthorn average 94.4 and Geelong 93.6 points per game against each other in their last 5 meetings played in the afternoon.
– Geelong defeated Hawthorn in their last meeting by 2 after Isaac Smith missed a set shot after the siren in the 2016 finals series.
– The average winning margin between these sides in their last 5 is 31.2 points.
Betting Data
2017 Line: Geelong 2-1, Hawthorn 0-3
2017 Over/Under: Geelong 3-0, Hawthorn 2-1
What To Expect
The Wolf was surprised when doing the form for this one that the average winning margin in the last 5 matches was a high 31.2 points. In fact, if we take out the finals match played last season, which Geelong won by 2, the margin jumps up to 41 points. This is not a good sign for the Hawks who have been struggling to find form so far in 2017. They are 0-3 straight up and ATS and currently sit on the bottom of the ladder with a percentage just above 60. Geelong hasn’t been in red-hot form but has done enough to be 3-0 after defeating Fremantle, North Melbourne and Melbourne. We can expect the Cats to rely heavily on their superstar players in Dangerfield, Selwood and Hawkins who have been superb so far in 2017. With the Hawks coming back from an Interstate trip and struggling to find any sort of form the Wolf can only see one outcome here and that’s an easy win to the Cats.
How Its Shaping Up
Geelong By 28
Recommended Bet
Geelong -14.5 ($1.91)
Player Markets
The same player appears each and every week here for Geelong and that is the one and only Patty Dangerfield. Lets have a look at his numbers so far in 2017, he averages 32.3 disposals, 5 marks, 5.7 tackles, 2.3 goals and 124.7 fantasy points per game. On top of this, in his last two matches against Hawthorn he averages 39 disposals, 5 marks, 4 tackles and 125 fantasy points per game. The scary thing is that he could be averaging over 130 as he has kicked 0 goals and 4 behinds in those matches.
New recruit Tom Mitchell has been the most consistent performer so far for the Hawks. In 2017 so far Mitchell is averaging 34 disposals, 5.7 marks, 6.3 tackles and 122.7 fantasy points per game. Given this will be Tom’s first taste of the Cats/Hawks rivalry, the Wolf will be steering clear and instead be taking his man Dangerfield to go big yet again.
Recommended Bet
Patrick Dangerfield 35+ Disposals ($2.25) 

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