AFL Preview: Hawthorn v West Coast

Hawthorn v West Coast
Sunday 4:40pm at MCG

Can the Hawks find something special to get their first win of 2017? 

Form

A lot has been said of Hawthorns troubles so far in 2017 and the Wolf can see one glaring issue. They were beaten in the contested possession again on Monday as Geelong had 28 more than the Hawks. The previous week against the Suns they were beaten in the same category by 62 and before that they finished equal with Adelaide – a match in which they lost by just 24 points.

The Eagles were forced to find another gear last week as the Swans continued to fight right into the final term. Jeremy McGovern swinged forward after Darling was a late out and was superb, kicking the sealer in the last quarter. The Eagles won every major stat category except for contested possessions. If they are to get over the line this week, they will need to win the contested ball count.

Stats That Matter

• Hawks have won 7 of the past 10 straight up against the Eagles at a POT of 6%
• The last 4 meetings have gone under the game total
• West Coast have not scored over 100 points against the Hawks since 2013
• West Coast are 0-5 straight up in last 5 games against the Hawks in Melbourne
• Hawthorn are 3-0 ATS in the last 3 matches against the Eagles in Melbourne
• 9 of the last 13 West Coast Interstate matches have finished under the game total
• West Coast have not conceded over 100 points in their last 9 Interstate matches

Betting Data

2017 Line: Hawthorn 0-4, West Coast 2-2
2017 Over/Under: Hawthorn 2-2, West Coast 2-2

What To Expect

The Hawks will have a soul searching week after 4 straight losses and being 0-4 ATS so far in 2017. We can expect a change of game style from Coach Clarkson though this will take longer than a week to implement and be successful. The Wolf thinks the recipe is simple, they play their best football when they break even or win the contested ball count now that there good ball users in Mitchell and Lewis are gone. We can expect some more bodies in and around the contest this week, as they need to stop the influence of Shuey and Priddis at the stoppages. West Coast will be expecting a fired up hawks team but have their own concerns playing Interstate. They were awful in the rain against Richmond 2 weeks ago and their fans will be expecting a 4 goal win here – something they have failed to achieve against the Hawks in their last 5 attempts. It is fair to say the Hawks are a shadow of what they used to be and with the Eagles setting their sights on a top 4 spot, they should be good enough to win this.

How Its Shaping Up

West Coast By 17

Recommended Bet

Best: West Coast 1-39 ($2.15)

Player Markets

Despite the Hawks struggles, Tom Mitchell has still managed to find plenty of the ball for the Hawks. His numbers in 2017 are outstanding averaging 33.5 disposals, 5.5 marks, 7.3 tackles and 123.3 points per game. Stats show that West Coast are the hardest team to score fantasy points against so the Wolf will be steering clear of Mitchell this week.

On the flip side, the Hawks are the easiest side to score against so far in 2017, and one man has a terrific record against them in recent times. In his last 4 matches against the Hawks, Andrew Gaff averages 31.5 disposals and 101.3 points per game. In his last 2 against the Hawks, Gaff averages 34 disposals and 113 fantasy points per game. Given he is in unbelievable form already in 2017, the Wolf will be backing Gaff to get leather poisoning in this one.

Recommended Bet
Prop: Andrew Gaff 30+ Disposals ($1.55)