AFL Preview: Fremantle v North Melbourne

Fremantle v North Melbourne
Saturday 7:40pm at Domain Stadium

Can Fremantle continue their hot run of form and make the Roos 0-5? 

Form

What a match it was last Saturday for Freo fans as they kicked a goal with 90 seconds remaining to defeat the Demons by 2. An inspired move by Ross Lyon to play Neale and Mundy in the forward line paid dividends as they combined for 7 goals. The Demons had 7 more inside 50’s though once inside the Dockers were the ones who capitalised with 29 scoring shots compared to 26 for Melbourne.

North Melbourne only has themselves to blame for going down by 3 points to the Dogs last week. North led by over 3 goals in the third term only to be overrun by a Dogs outfit who continue to find ways to win. The Roos had a remarkable 16 less inside 50’s than the Dogs but managed 28 scoring shots to just 27 for the Dogs. The Roos also won the contested possession but couldn’t convert a couple of last chances in the fourth term.

Stats That Matter

• Fremantle are 2 from 3 straight up against North in Perth at a POT of -15%
• All 3 matches since 2012 played in Perth between these sides have gone under the game total
• North average a low 48.3 points per game in their last 3 matches against Fremantle in Perth
• Fremantle concede just 71.76 points against all opponents in Perth since 2012
• North average just 72.2 points per game in their last 5 Interstate trips against all opponents
• North have conceded 100 or more points in 4 of their last 5 Interstate trips
• North are 1 and 6 straight up in their last 7 Interstate matches

Betting Data

2017 Line: Fremantle 2-2, North Melbourne 2-2
2017 Over/Under: Fremantle 3-1, North Melbourne 2-2

What To Expect

Fremantle will be full of confidence as in consecutive weeks they have defeated the Bulldogs at home and then Melbourne at the MCG. They have a strong defensive record in Perth, particularly against North who averages a low 48.3 points per game in their last 3 against Fremantle. Sandilands will have a tough battle on his hands against arguably the best ruck duo in the competition in Goldstein and Preuss but should still give his classy on ball brigade first use out of the middle. Cam McCarthy found some form last week moving further up the ground and his battle against Scott Thompson will be pivotal in the outcome of the match. For many of the young Ross players it will be their first trip over to Domain and given their struggles so far in 2017 and their poor form in Perth, the Wolf can see only one outcome in this one.

How Its Shaping Up

Fremantle By 24

Recommended Bet

Best: Fremantle -12.5 ($1.91)

Player Markets

Ben Cunnington has really stepped up in the Roos midfield in 2017 since the departure of Dal Santo, Wells and Harvey. He managed 33 disposals last week against the Dogs but couldn’t get his team over the line.

For the Dockers, Lachie Neale has bounced back into form after a slow start to the year. Neale had 22 disposals and 4 goals on the Demons last week and in his last 3 games against North averages 32.7 disposals, 5.7 marks, 5.7 tackles and 126.7 fantasy points. The other Freo star with great form is Nat Fyfe, who averages 29 disposals and 107.8 fantasy points per game so far in 2017. In his last 3 against North, Fyfe averages 28.3 disposals, 5.3 marks, 5.7 tackles, 1.7 goals and 112.7 points per game. The Wolf can see another big game at home here for the Dockers star and will be all over him to go big again here.

Recommended Bet
Prop: Nat Fyfe 30+ Disposals ($1.95)