Southampton v Manchester City: Aguero big price to continue run

Southampton v Manchester City
Saturday, 17:30
Live On BT Sports 1

Southampton

The Saints come into this game in good form. Unbeaten in three, Southampton have beaten decent opposition in the form of a rejuvenated Crystal Palace and eighth-placed West Brom in their last two games.

A 1-0 victory last weekend saw Southampton move to within four points of WBA and gives them a target to focus on, in what could otherwise be a rather pointless amble towards the end of the season. If they can move ahead of the Baggies, it will be the third successive season in which Southampton have finished in the top eight.

Considering that Southampton have suffered from a quick turnaround of managers and the loss of key players every summer, it is a credit to the way the club is run that they continue to compete at the top end of the Premier League. Claude Puel may well lose more star names in the summer, but canny buys such as Manolo Gabbiadini and the progress of youngsters such as Jack Stephens gives Southampton hope for the future.

Puel could be without Gabbiadini for the match with City, who is on a lengthy list of injured players that includes Charlie Austin, Sofiane Boufal, Steven Davis, Jake Hesketh, Alex McCarthy, Matt Targett and Virgil van Dijk. In addition, Oriol Romeu serves the second game of a two match suspension.

Manchester City

Pep Guardiola's team ended a run of four matches without a win, with a 3-1 victory over Hull last weekend.

It was noticeable that after an admittedly tough run that saw City fail to claim a victory against Monaco, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea, it should be relegation-threatened Hull that were ultimately beaten.

This is a team that is consistent in their ability to beat the Premier League's lesser clubs, but struggles when they step up in class. This is evidenced by the fact that they have only won two of their nine games against the current top six, while they also could only draw when they hosted Southampton back in October.

One would expect that statistic to improve next season, when Guardiola will have bolstered his squad. Two of the signings he's already made will be injured for this match, with Gabriel Jesus and Ilkay Gundogan joining Bacary Sagna on the sidelines.

Ref Watch

Neil Swarbrick will officiate. The last match he refereed - Manchester United's draw with Everton - saw Swarbrick show five yellow cards and one red.

Match Odds

Manchester City are the favourites at 1.81, with the draw at 4.10 and Southampton out at 4.70.

That's quite a chunky price for a City win when you consider the number of injuries Southampton are dealing with right now. After a busy season, the visitors have had a rare week off to recuperate from their last game and that could well prove decisive.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Overs is the favourite at 1.68, with unders available at 2.38.

Again, it's a price for a favourite that's worth backing. Four of City's last five games have seen over 2.5 goals, while the same has been true for Southampton in eight of their last ten outings.

Another option that looks likely to land at a similar price is for Both Teams To Score at 1.67.

To Score

Sergio Aguero leads the betting at 2.02, which is a very good price for a player in such form.

The Argentine has scored in each of his last four Premier League games, taking his tally for the season in all competitions to 28 in 38 appearances. He's 4.50 to open the scoring.

Recommended Bets
Back Manchester City to win at 1.81
Back both teams to score at 1.67
Back Aguero to score at 2.02