AFL Preview: Crows v Bombers

Adelaide v Essendon
Saturday 7:40pm at Adelaide Oval

The Crows look sure things to make it a 4-0 start 2017

Form

The Crows were shaky early against the Power as they conceded the first 4 goals of the match. They managed to recover by midway through the second term and kicked away to win the match by 17. They finished the match with 51 more disposals than the Power and also won the contested ball count by 31.

Essendon went into their match against Carlton as -20.5 favourites at the line but were shown up by a Carlton side that was hungrier for the win. The Bombers lost every major stat category in this one including the inside 50 count by 23.

Stats That Matter

– The last 5 matches have gone over the game total.
– Adelaide average 118.4 points per game in their last 5 against Essendon.
– Adelaide average 157 points per game in their last two against Essendon.
– Adelaide have scored over 100 points in 8 of their last 11 night matches at home.
– Adelaide are 11-7 ATS in their last 18 night matches at home.
– Adelaide have won 10 of their last 12 night matches at home.
– 6 of the last 8 Essendon Interstate matches have gone over the game total.
-Essendon are 1 and 6 ATS in their last 7 Interstate matches.
– Essendon have only scored over 100 points once in their last 17 Interstate matches.

Betting Data

2017 Line: Adelaide 3-0, Essendon 2-1
2017 Over/Under: Adelaide 2-1, Essendon 2-1

What To Expect

Adelaide head into this match as warm favourites given how well they have played in the opening three rounds. Their forward line is again leading the way, averaging 120 points per game to rank equal first in the competition. Adelaide’s midfield is ranked #2 in the competition for contested possessions, compared to #10 for Essendon, which is a big advantage heading into this clash. Rory Sloane and Matt Crouch should be able to get on top in the middle as Sam Jacobs ruck work has been outstanding so far and he should account for Leuenberger quite easily. The Bombers interstate form has been terrible of late going 1-6 ATS in their last 7 matches. If they are to win here the Wolf predicts they will need to score 115 or more points, and the stats simply say they cannot do this. The Bombers have managed to eclipse the 100 point mark just once in their last 17 interstate matches and this will mean they go down quite easily on Saturday night. Last week the Bombers scrapped away on a heavy MCG surface and they should run out of legs in the second half of this one.

How Its Shaping Up

Adelaide by 38

Recommended Bet

Adelaide -18.5 2nd Half Line ($1.87)

Player Markets

Rory Sloane has been the Crows highest rated player in consecutive matches. Sloane’s numbers are second to none, averaging 28 disposals, 5.5 marks, 12 tackles, 1 goal and a huge 145.5 fantasy points per game in his last two. The Wolf wanted to be on Sloane in fantasy markets but can see the value is gone after his outstanding performance in the Showdown.

Brendon Goddard jumps off the stat sheet here as his record against the Crows is phenomenal. In his last 3 against the Crows he averages 31.7 disposals, 8.7 marks, 3.7 tackles and 125 points per game. In 2017, he averages 26.7 disposals and 116.7 points per game and the Wolf cannot ignore the current price offered for Goddard to score over 110 points.

Recommended Bet
Brendon Goddard 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.75)