AFL Preview: Demons v Dockers

Melbourne v Fremantle
Saturday 1:45pm at MCG

A depleted Demons outfit will face a fired up Fremantle who are fresh from knocking off the 2016 Premiers.

Form

The Dees were resilient last week after the loss of key ruckman Max Gawn after quarter time. They held a 3 goal lead towards the end of the third term before being overrun by a fitter Cats side. The effort was courageous from Melbourne as they finished the game with 6 more scoring shots than the Cats but ended up losing the clash by 29 points.

Fremantle are full of confidence after defeating last year’s premiers the Bulldogs by 16 points. Despite being beaten in every major stat category, the Dockers found a way under Ross Lyon to bring the premiers down for their first defeat of 2017. Lead by their midfield of Fyfe, Neale, Mundy and Hill who all had over 30+ disposals, the Dockers were more efficient in front of goal and collected their first win of the year.

Stats That Matter

– Melbourne have won just 1 of their last 8 against Fremantle at a POT of -81%.
– Melbourne are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 against Fremantle.
– Melbourne have not scored over 87 points in their last 8 against Fremantle.
– Melbourne average a low 53.3 points per game in their last 8 against Fremantle.
– Fremantle average 125.5 points per game in their last two against Melbourne played at the MCG.
– Melbourne average 44 points per game in their last two against Fremantle at the MCG.
– The team who has started favourite has won the last 8 matches between these two sides.
– Fremantle has won 3 of the past 4 matches against all opponents at the MCG.

Betting Data

2017 Line: Melbourne 1-2, Fremantle 1-2
2017 Over/Under: Melbourne 2-1, Fremantle 2-1

What To Expect

Melbourne will be without star Trio Max Gawn (hamstring), Jordan Lewis (suspension) and Jesse Hogan (suspension) for this clash against Fremantle. With Aaron Sandilands in the main ruck role for Fremantle, the Wolf is expecting him to dominate Jake Spencer and give first possession down to the likes of Neale, Hill, Fyfe and Mundy. Melbourne will again be looking to their youth to get them over the line here with players such as Neal-Bullen, Oliver and Hunt who have been outstanding thus far in 2017. Fremantle will need to turn around a horrible recent Interstate record of 12 losses from their past 13 though they will take confidence in the fact they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against Melbourne. It’s for this reason the Wolf can see the Dockers take it right up to the depleted Demons outfit and take this match down to the wire.

How Its Shaping Up

Melbourne By 6

Recommended Bet

Fremantle +22.5 ($1.91)

Player Markets

Clayton Oliver deserves a big mention here as his 2017 has been phenomenal. Oliver is averaging career highs in all categories including 33.0 disposals, 5.7 marks, 8.0 tackles and 122.7 fantasy points per game. Jack Viney hasn’t had a great start to 2017, though last week he tallied 25 disposals, 8 tackles and 101 fantasy points – his highest of the season. In his last two matches against Freo, Viney averages 29.5 disposals, 10.0 tackles and 123.5 fantasy points per game. Given Gawn will be missing here, the Wolf will be steering clear of any Melbourne midfielders as I expect Sandilands to be giving first use to the Freo players. Sandilands dominance should suit the Freo midfielders, in particular Lachie Neale who has incredible stats against the Dees in recent history. In his last 4 against Melbourne, Neale averages 30.5 disposals, 5.3 marks, 6.5 tackles, 1.3 goals and 125.3 fantasy points per game. For these reasons the Wolf will be all over Neale again this week.

Recommended Bet
Lachie Neale 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.50)