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Canterbury Bulldogs v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Friday, April 14, 4pm (AEST), ANZ Stadium, Sydney




These teams have started to build a strong rivalry, stemming from the 2014 Grand Final and the Rabbitohs controversial 18-17 victory on Good Friday in 2015. Bulldogs skipper James Graham was penalised for making contact with Adam Reynolds as he attempted a field goal to lock up the scores at 17-17. The Rabbitohs kicked the penalty goal to run out 18-17 winners. Bulldogs enforcer David Klemmer will miss this clash with an ankle injury, while Rabbitohs winger Braidon Burns can expect plenty of bombs coming his way if he is named in the side this week after his Round 6 shocker against the Panthers.
History
The Rabbitohs have won 6 of the last 9 against the Bulldogs with the last six all tallying over 35. Both team shared the spoils last year, with the Bulldogs thumping the Rabbitohs 42-12 on Good Friday last year. Josh Morris crossed for a double, while Josh Reynolds was the only member of the Bulldogs backline not to cross for a four-pointer. The Rabbitohs bounced back in the Round 26 clash, defeating the Bulldogs 28-10, with Aaron Gray and Joe Burgess both scoring doubles.
Form
Canterbury posted back-to-back victories for the first time this year with a road win at Newcastle. They have now won three of their last four and have conceded 12 points or fewer in their last two matches. South Sydney have a 3-3 record and enter this off a 1-point win over an understrength Penrith side. Prior to that they were soundly beaten by the Roosters and Cowboys.
Key Matchup
Moses Mbye/Matt Frawley v Adam Reynolds. The pressure is starting to build on Mbye after Frawley made a cameo appearance off the bench against the Knights to guide the Bulldogs to victory. Mbye was shifted to the centres in the win over the Knights, after Brad Abbey went off with concussion. The Bulldogs are 2/2 with Frawley in the 17 and the pressure will be building on Des Hasler to hand him the No.7 jersey over the struggling Mbye. We’ll see which way he goes when team lists are announced today. Meanwhile, Reynolds produced yet another clutch-moment, kicking the match-winning field goal over the Panthers. He missed last year’s Good Friday clash and will be crucial to the Rabbitohs chances in this one.
Stats That Matter
Canterbury are 4-2 ATS with a 5-1 under record while South Sydney are 3-3 ATS with a 3-3 total number. South Sydney have won 6 of the last 9 against Canterbury with the last six all tallying over 35. The Rabbitohs are a poor 6-18 ATS at the ground since 2015. As a small favourite at the ground Canterbury are 5-3 ATS with a 7-1 over number while as an underdog at the ground Souths are 2-7 ATS with a 6-3 over record.
Final Thoughts
The Wolf is leaning towards the Bulldogs in a tight one. The loss of Klemmer is a blow, but they still have enough depth in their pack to match the Rabbitohs, and outside of their halves, they have an obvious advantage in the backs. The Rabbitohs snuck home over an under-strength Panthers last week and will face a greater challenge here.
How It’s Shaping Up
Canterbury by 4
Best Bet
Canterbury -1.5 ($1.90)

Other Recommended Bets
Over 38.5 ($1.88)

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