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New Zealand Warriors v Parramatta Eels

Sunday, April 9, 2pm (AEST), Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland




The Warriors were incredibly lucky to get the two competition points last week, but can they back it up this week? The Wolf has his doubts despite the Warriors good recent record against the Eels.
History
The Warriors have won 3 of their last 4 against the Eels but lost last year’s match 40-18. Eels fullback Bevan French scored a hat-trick in last year’s victory. Six of the last seven meetings have tallied over 45 points.
Form
New Zealand were incredibly lucky to escape with the two points at home against the Titans, winning 28-22. The Warriors have conceded 22-plus in every game this season. Parramatta started the season on fire with two impressive wins over Manly and St George Illawarra but have since lost the way with losses to the Titans, Sharks and Raiders. Defence has been an issue conceding 20-plus in their last three.
Key Matchup
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck v Bevan French. Tuivasa Sheck is still finding his feet this season due to the ACL injury he suffered last year. He looked close to his best in last week’s win over the Titans, with a try and try-assist. French is an excitement machine like RTS, and did score a hat-trick against the Warriors in Auckland last season. It shapes up as a great battle which rivals the clash between Shaun Johnson and Corey Norman.
Stats That Matter
New Zealand are 0-5 ATS with a 3-2 over record while Parramatta are 2-3 ATS with a 3-2 under record. The Warriors are the only team not to cover in the NRL this year and are riding a nine-game non-cover streak. The Warriors have won 3 of their last 4 against the Eels but lost last year’s match 40-18. Six of the last seven meetings have tallied over 45 points. New Zealand have covered just 1 of their last 9 as a favourite while they are 13-20 ATS at Mt Smart since the start of the 2014 season with a 20-13 over record at the ground.
Final Thoughts
The stats don’t lie. The Warriors are the only team not to cover in the NRL this year and six of the last seven meetings have tallied over 45 points. Take the overs and the Eels with the start.
How It’s Shaping Up
Parramatta by 4
Best Bet
Over 44.5 ($1.88)

Other Recommended Bets
Parramatta +2 ($1.91)

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