Serie A Betting: Back goals in Milan and Turin and Fiorentina to fire

Inter v Milan
Saturday, 11:30
Live on BT Sport 1

After picking up one point from their last nine, Inter Milan are stuttering badly, and last week's defeat in Crotone will not have been greeted with enthusiasm in the corridors of power.

Inter are down to seventh, but can go above Milan if they beat them in the Derby Della Madonnina. After dropping points against Pescara, Milan got back on song against Palermo last week, and they could be primed for another victory here.

The reverse fixture in November was one of the games of the season, and I expect this one to provide us with more thrills. Milan have tended to be conservative against some of the smaller Serie A sides, but have turned on the style against the bigger names.

To use a boxing analogy, Milan are happy to cruise to a points decision if they can, but tend to get drawn into a scrap when a challenge is thrown down.

And, for all of their recent poor form, Inter will provide a challenge. It wasn't so long ago that they put seven past Atalanta, and the majority of their games this season so far have been full of goals. All they need is for their front three to click again and they could yet have a strong finish to the campaign.

The game in November finished 2-2, and I'm expecting something similar here.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Inter v Milan @ 2.60

Torino v Crotone
Saturday, 14:00

The Torino goals bandwagon has been very kind to us, and it looks set to roll on this weekend as Andrea Belotti and co face Crotone. Since they drew 1-1 with Empoli on February 5, every Torino game has gone Over 3.5 Goals, and given the nature of Crotone's current plight, I don't see that run stopping.

Davide Nicola is really likeable, and also impressive, and it just seems as if he might have started to get a tune out of Crotone. They did remarkably well to beat Inter last week, the form of Diego Falcinelli has helped them to two consecutive wins and an outside chance of engineering a great escape.

One of their big problems is their run-in: they face Milan, Juventus and Lazio in three of their six games after this, and so Nicola will target this trip, as well as home matches against Pescara and Udinese, for precious points. That would seem to be their only chance.

We know about the way that Torino play, but I think that Nicola will match them, and that we're likely to see another open, high-scoring affair. There's no real point in going and looking for a 0-0 draw, and Crotone probably aren't good enough to do that anyway, so be prepared for more goals.

Recommended Bet
Over 3.5 Goals in Torino v Crotone @ 2.50

Fiorentina v Empoli
Saturday, 14:00

Fiorentina were involved in a terrific game against Sampdoria last weekend, but I don't think that the Tuscan derby will be anywhere near as competitive as that 2-2 draw. La Viola have been a frustrating team to follow this season, and even though they've won three of their last four, and are unbeaten since February 19, I'm still not sure that I trust them.

They'll be far too good for Empoli, though, who struggled against Pescara last week, and are now under serious threat from Crotone. Their place in Serie A next season is not yet secure.

The last point that Empoli picked up away from home was on January 15, a 0-0 draw against Samp, and they've lost each of those subsequent matches by at least two clear goals.

They struggle to score (their season goals total is now up to 18), can't defend, and look absolutely shot. Fiorentina rediscovered their own goal-scoring mojo last weekend, and I think that Empoli could be set for a thrashing. I'll be backing "Any Other Home win" in the Correct Score market.

Recommended Bet
"Any Other Home Win" in the Correct Score market of Fiorentina v Empoli @4.20