Everton v Burnley 
Saturday 15:00

Everton

Ronald Koeman will be delighted with matters on the pitch. The 4-2 win over Leicester made it 10 goals in Everton's last three home matches and 10 points from a possible 15 across their last five games. Romelu Lukaku was immense once again and is a worthy candidate for PFA Player of the Year, though Chelsea's N'Golo Kante looks nailed-on for that one.

But off the pitch Lukaku is partly responsible for some of those custard-coloured hairs of Koeman's that shone like a beacon on European football pitches throughout the 80s and 90s, turning that little bit more grey. As is Ross Barkley

Both players seem hesitant about signing new contracts and the former Dutch sweeper has made it pretty clear that they need to put pen to paper or they'll be sold to the highest bidder. There will be no Bosmans at Goodison Park over the next couple of years on his watch.

Ramiro Funes Mori, Seamus Coleman, Yannick Bolasie and James McCarthy all miss out through injury. Ashley Williams returns from suspension and will play alongside Phil Jagielka, who reminded his Manager of what he can do (in the absence of Funes Mori) with a strong display against Leicester that was capped off with a fine headed goal.

Burnley

I previewed the Burnley match last week and somehow talked myself out of backing 0-0 at 8.00. At least I went for under 1.5 goals at 2.90 which in the end won comfortably because it ended...0-0.

Given their woes on the road this season, that was a good point for them. Odds of 36.00 tell you all you need to know about their chances of still being relegated this season.

But this isn't a dead rubber as such for Sean Dyche's men. He knows that his side's home record was freakishly good this season and that if he wants to stay up next season he'll have to pick up at least some points on the road against sides superior to his own. Like Everton.

Match Odds

If you want a 48% return on your investment, then take Everton's price to win this game. You'll have to look pretty hard at all manner of shares, investment funds and other financial products to find one offering that sort of return with relatively few risks. Everton have been excellent at home of late and though Burnley have picked up a very creditable three draws on the road, they were against Boro, Sunderland and Hull. They've pretty much lost just about every other away match to sides in the Top 10.

But 1.48 shots aren't much fun to back so let's move on and find something better.

Everton to win to nil

Like Everton to win to nil. That's how they managed to win their last two previous home matches (4-0 against Hull, 3-0 against West Brom) and there was no disgrace in conceding two against Leicester because the Foxes were in superb form when they travelled to Goodison last week.

Add to the equation the return of the vastly experienced Ashley Williams to the heart of Everton's defence and the fact that Burnley have failed to score in their last two matches on the road and that 2.30 starts to look a far better investment than the straightforward Everton win.

To Score

Speaking of Lukaku, you can say what you want about him biding his time before signing a new contract, but while he's at Everton he's going to give it his all. Especially when they're at home. Lukaku's stats provided by Opta make for some incredible reading: he's scored in all of his eight matches at Goodison in 2017, his 13 goals in 2017 are more than the whole Burnley side have managed this year and he's scored more goals than the whole of the Middlesbrough team put together this campaign. Lukaku is 4/6 (1.67) on the Betfair Sportsbook but you can surely get yourself closer to 1.85 on the Exchange on the big Belgian. I certainly wouldn't put you off that.

Last week I decided against backing Kevin Mirallas (and that ended up being a good choice given he didn't score any of their four goals) but I think the time is right to back him ahead of this match. He played a full 90 minutes last week, a rarity for him and a sign that Koeman finally seems to trust him.

I doubt Koeman will want to change a winning side just for the sake of it and this looks the sort of home tie the talented winger will be viewing a ideal to add to his goal tally.

Ref Watch

Everyone will have their view on Mark Clattenburg's decision to defect to Saudi Arabia at the end of the season, so here's mine. He's done absolutely everything it's possible for a referee to do in the game, having been in charge of just about every big final going. He'll earn enough money to set himself up for life while improving the refereeing standards in a country that loves football but lacks that sort of expertise he possesses. Good on him.

He averages 3.5 yellows a game so don't expect too many cards here. If you fancy a particular player to be booked, then have a look at the price on Everton starlet Tom Davies. He's been booked in two of his last three games and his youthful exuberance may seem him get into trouble once again here.

Recommended Bets 
1.5pts Back Everton to win to nil @ 2.30
1pt Back Kevin Mirallas to score @ 3.20

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