Everton v Leicester: Vardy goal in a share of the spoils

Everton v Leicester 
Sunday 16:00 
Live on Sky Sports 1

Everton 

Everton were at risk of being dubbed fat-track bullies after a series of comprehensive home wins against sides below them in the table.

But an impressive 1-1 draw at Old Trafford, that could have been so much more but for the late drama - it saw Ashley Williams sent off and Zlatan Ibrahimovic salvage a point from the penalty spot- proved Everton can also mix it up with the big boys away from home.

Whether Ronald Koeman rotating his midfielders and wide forwards every other match is a good thing or not is up for debate. It shows Everton have strength in depth but makes a set gameplan a little harder to execute when the personnel keeps changing. Only Romelu Lukaku and Ross Barkley seem to be ever-present these days from amongst the 'front six'.

And all this rotating has been going on despite a huge list of absentees. In addition to the suspended Ashley Williams, players out for this match through injury include: Aaron Lennon, Morgan Schneiderlin, James McCarthy, Muhamed Besic, Seamus Coleman, Yannick Bolasie and Ramiro Funes Mori.

Leicester 

I've previewed a few Leicester matches of late and I'm bored with going on about how this set of players let Claudio Ranieri down. So let's move on.

The result of this remarkable run is that relegation fears have been all but wiped away meaning they can pretty much just focus on the Champions League from now. Not that a tie against Atletico Madrid is anything to look forward to.

There's a possibility that a couple of key players may get a breather here ahead of that Wednesday night tie in Madrid but I can't see it happening. Why mess with the good vibe?

The exception is Wes Morgan, who is suffering with a back injury. It may be worth giving the skipper a couple more days off to recover ahead of the big game.

Match Odds

Something's gotta give. Opta tell us Everton are on a run of six straight home wins while Leicester don't know what it means to not win a match under Craig Shakespeare having done so in his first five games in charge of the Foxes.

If you're thinking of backing Everton you can take confidence from the fact that the Toffees won this match 2-0 at Leicester earlier on in the season but that was a very different side in terms of confidence, morale and quality of performance to the one who will take to the field on Sunday afternoon.

I don't think Leicester will win the game despite the absence of three of Everton's starting back four but Everton are quite simply too short, all things considered. The draw is an obvious choice therefore at 3.95 but when has that ever stopped a bet from being a good one?

Over/Under 2.5 goals

Given Everton's home matches have gone over 2.5 goals 46.7% of the time and Leicester's have gone 'overs' 64.3% of the time this season it's not hard to understand why overs is favourite at 1.88.

This has the scent of being a complete lottery so is best left alone.

To Score

The odds-compilers at the Betfair Sportsbook has obviously done their homework properly in pricing up Kevin Mirallas at just 9/5. That looks a short price on a man who has just four league goals all season and isn't even a definite starter. The reason he's so short? The Belgian wide man loves playing Leicester, as Opta remind us. He's scored in each of his last three appearances against the Foxes.

You'll also see worse bets this weekend than the 19/20 on Romelu Lukaku netting here. Also a Belgian international, the former Chelsea man averages just under a goal a game this season at Goodison with 13 goals from 14 starts. Opta add that he's also contributed with five assists on home turf.

It's hard to make a case for anyone else from Everton here. Barkley's price of 9/4 looks about right and it's anyone's guess who might start from Enner Valencia, Arouna Kone, Dominic Calvert-Lewin or Ademola Lookman.

But the value is Jamie Vardy. Whatever they started putting in his tea since Shakespeare took over has done the trick. His five in six goals since the new Boss took charge is in stark contrast to his 7 in 32 under Ranieri in 2016/17 (Opta). And if Mirallas likes playing Leicester, then Vardy likes playing Everton. He's scored twice in three appearances against them. Better still, he'll enjoy playing against Everton's depleted back four.

Ref Watch 

Bobby Madley is the man in the middle. He averages 4.14 yellows a game and has shown three reds. But neither side has any particular pattern regarding high or low bookings counts this season so not much to go with.

Recommended Bets

1pt Back the draw @ 3.95
1pt Back Jamie Vardto score @ 2/1