NRL Preview
Canberra Raiders v New Zealand Warriors

Saturday, April 15, 5:30pm (AEST), GIO Stadium, Canberra





The Raiders are starting to find the form which saw them fall one game short of a grand final berth in 2016. The Warriors resurgence has coincided with the return of Kieran Foran, but it takes a brave person to back them on the road.
HistoryThe Warriors had won five straight against the Raiders heading into 2016 but lost both games last season. The Raiders won last year’s Round 11 clash in New Plymouth 38-12 and followed it up in Round 26 with a 26-22 victory in Canberra. Raiders skipper Jarrod Croker scored a hat-trick in the four-point win.
FormCanberra have been good for most of the season and are starting to really hit their stride with three big wins in the last four weeks, embarrassing the Tigers, Eels and Titans with some brilliant attacking Rugby League. They became just the second road team to post 40 points this year against the Titans. New Zealand enter this off back-to-back wins for the first time this year, their run of form no doubt coinciding with the return of Kieran Foran. The Warriors come into this off their best defensive performance of the season.
Key Matchup
Blake Austin v Kieran Foran. Austin surprisingly didn’t have a try-assist in the Raiders 42-16 win over the Titans last week and needs to find another gear to take the pressure off Aidan Sezer. He is at his best when he takes on the line, but also needs to provide opportunities for his outside men. Meanwhile, Foran has been a revelation since his return to the NRL, with a try in his first game back and two try-assists in the win over the Eels. His partnership with Shaun Johnson is the Warrior’s best chance of finally reaching their potential.
Stats That Matter
Canberra are 5-1 ATS with a 4-2 over number while New Zealand are 1-5 ATS with a 3-3 total record. The Warriors had won five straight against the Raiders heading into 2016 but lost both games last season. The over is 14-6 when Canberra are favoured by more than a converted try at home with the Raiders 11-9 ATS. The Warriors have covered just 15 of their last 38 away games and have failed to cover their last three away from Mt Smart. Road teams off two straight wins getting more than a converted try cover at just 42%.
Final ThoughtsThere’s no question that the Warriors are a better side with Foran in the side, but The Wolf simply cannot trust them. The Raiders have strike power across the park including the force that is “Leipana”. The Raiders are building nicely and will be a major force in this competition when the whips are cracking.
How It’s Shaping Up
Canberra by 12
Best BetCanberra -7.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
Over 44.5 ($1.88)

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