AFL Preview: Eagles v Swans

West Coast v Sydney
Thursday 8:10pm
at Domain Stadium

West Coast will need to turnaround a dreadful home record against the Swans to get a win here.

Form

West Coast went into their game against Richmond as -12.5 point favourites but was shown up by a hungrier Tigers outfit, going down by 11 points. They were beaten in the contested ball count by 25, particularly in the second half when conditions were tough.

Sydney went into their clash against Collingwood as slight favourites, though were upset by a ferocious Pies team. Collingwood managed 70 more disposals than the Swans and laid a huge 115 tackles to just 88 for the Swans.

Stats That Matter

– West Coast have won just 1 of the past 5 against Sydney at a POT of -73%.
– West Coast are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against Sydney.
– The last 3 matches between these sides has finished under the game total.
– West Coast average a low 70.2 points per game in their last 5 against Sydney.
– Sydney have won 4 of the past 5 against West Coast at a POT of 39%.
– Sydney average 90.4 points per game in their last 5 against West Coast.
– Sydney have won 7 of their last 9 Interstate matches against all opponents.
– 8 of the last 11 Sydney Interstate matches have gone over the game total.
– Sydney are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Interstate matches.

Betting Data

2017 Line: West Coast 1-2, Sydney 0-3
2017 Over/Under: West Coast 2-1, Sydney 2-1

What To Expect

West Coast is coming of a 5-day break and is on the short back up against a hungry Sydney team looking for their first win of 2017. The Eagles have a very disappointing recent record against the Swans winning just 1 of their last 5 matches. The Wolf can see this being turned around this week as the Eagles look a far different side to previous years. New recruit Sam Mitchell has slotted in nicely across half back and his presence allows others such as Shuey and Wellingham to flourish. The Swans have been a shadow of their former self of late losing the first 3 matches of the season. Last week they were without 9 players who lined up for them in the Grand Final of 2016, indicating just how injury ravaged they have been. Despite being 0-3, they come into this game with confidence, as their recent record against the Eagles is terrific. However, the fact they are missing so many players and have a long road trip ahead of them, the Wolf cannot be on the Swans in this one.

How Its Shaping Up

West Coast By 12

Recommended Bet

West Coast 1-39 ($2.10)

Player Markets

West Coast’s Andrew Gaff is enjoying a great start to the season averaging 35 disposals per game so far in 2017. In his last two against the Swans he averages 32 disposals and looks on track to eclipse the 30 mark again here. Matthew Priddis is the most consistent Eagle against the Swans in recent history averaging 30.3 disposals, 9.3 tackles and 117.5 fantasy points per game in his last 4. For Sydney it is the usual suspects again who step up against the Eagles. Dan Hannebery and Luke Parker both average over 102 fantasy points in their last 3 matches against West Coast but with only Sam Naismith in the ruck for them in 2017, their productivity has been far lower than previous years. The Wolf will be steering clear of any Swans players here and instead will be going with Priddis to turn on another great performance.

Recommended Bet
Matthew Priddis 30+ Disposals ($2.30)