Newcastle v Leeds
Good Friday, 14th April, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Newcastle

Newcastle started the season as the shortest-priced ante-post favourites in Championship history but the Toon are in danger of missing out on top honours after suffering a ninth defeat of the campaign at play-off hopefuls Sheffield Wednesday last time out.

The Magpies went down with a whimper at Hillsborough and in truth haven't performed to their expected ability throughout the bulk of the campaign. Nevertheless, Rafa Benitez's boys remain on-course for an immediate return to the Premier League.

However, the hosts are without two key performers as 22-goal striker Dwight Gayle and outstanding centre-half Ciaran Clark are absent through injury. Benitez must decide on Aleksandar Mitrovic or Daryl Murphy to start in attack while United have managed just W4-D1-L4 in the nine games without Clark.

Leeds

Leeds returned to form at Elland Road last weekend with an impressive 3-0 victory over Preston. The Whites had lost back-to-back games at Reading and Brentford previously but cemented their place in the top-six with Kemar Roofe, Pablo Hernandez and Souleymane Doukara all scoring.

It was the first win in five for Garry Monk's men and despite a slow start, Leeds grew into the game and produced a commanding performance that pleased their manager. Monk is now expected to field the same XI at St James' Park this weekend.

Liam Bridcutt remains a fitness doubt whilst Kyle Bartley and Pontus Jansson should continue their centre-back partnership with Liam Cooper still serving a suspension.

Match Odds

Newcastle have scored at least two goals in 10 of their last 12 matches against Leeds with the Toon boasting a superior W8-D2-L2 record in that sequence since 1999, including a 2-0 triumph when the two teams met at Elland Road in November.

The Magpies have recorded 13/20 (65%) wins on home soil since relegation, a return that makes the 1.70 available on a Newcastle win a value price. But it's been a while since Benitez's boys really impressed at St James' Park.

The hosts have W7-D2-L3 here since the end of November and laboured in games against struggling sides that take a defensive approach, such as Burton, Wigan, Bristol City, Blackburn and QPR.

Leeds 5.80 have suffered on the road (W8-D3-L9) and lost all three encounters at teams currently above them in the standings. Indeed, the Whites have been beaten in seven of their past nine at top-six teams but their pragmatic style could certainly frustrate Newcastle here.

Half-Time

Considering Newcastle have only led at the break in five of their last 12 on Tyneside and in only seven of their previous 19 matches dating back to Boxing Day, I'm happy to swerve the Match Odds market and instead focus attention on the Half-Time market by backing the draw at 2.10.

Leeds have rewarded half-time draw backers in 22/41 (54%) of their Championship games under Monk including 10/20 (50%) on their travels. A healthy 18/41 (44%) have been 0-0 at the break, an alternative option at 2.62.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5 Goals 2.06 has paid out in 13/20 (65%) St James' Park outings this season and in 22/41 (545) of Newcastle's fixtures overall. Goal-heavy games have also proven profitable in seven of the Toon's last 11 encounters.

Leeds are rarely involved in such high-scoring affairs; the Whites have returned only 15/41 (37%) Over 2.5 Goals winners but 9/20 (45%) of their away matches have beaten the two-goal line suggesting there's a slither of value in backing a repeat.

The visitors have managed only three clean sheets in games as guests but had scored in 11 of 12 road trips before firing back-to-back blanks at Reading and Brentford.

Recommended Bets
Back the Half-Time draw @ 2.10

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