St George Illawarra Dragons v North Queensland Cowboys
Saturday, April 15, 7:30pm (AEST), WIN Stadium, Wollongong
The Dragons are flying at the top of the table and will high on confidence after thumping the Sea Eagles 35-10 at Brookvale Oval last week. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are in deep trouble with injuries, none bigger than a calf injury to the inspirational Johnathan Thurston. Lachlan Coote, Jake Granville, Antonio Winterstein, Shaun Fensom and Matt Scott are other notable absentees from the Cowboys best 17. Ben Hampton has been named in the Cowboys No.7 jersey and will have some big boots to fill. The Dragons have named the same 17 which defeated the Sea Eagles.
History
The Cowboys have won 9 of the last 14 against the Dragons including 3 of the last 4 in Wollongong. Thurston has missed three of those last 14 matches and it needs to be factored in here. Both teams shared the spoils in 2016, with the Dragons shutout 36-0 in the Round 5 clash at Townsville, while the Dragons won the Round 12 clash at Wollongong 14-10 against the Thurston-less Cowboys. Six of the last eight matches between the sides have tallied 38 points or fewer.
The Cowboys have won 9 of the last 14 against the Dragons including 3 of the last 4 in Wollongong. Thurston has missed three of those last 14 matches and it needs to be factored in here. Both teams shared the spoils in 2016, with the Dragons shutout 36-0 in the Round 5 clash at Townsville, while the Dragons won the Round 12 clash at Wollongong 14-10 against the Thurston-less Cowboys. Six of the last eight matches between the sides have tallied 38 points or fewer.
Form
St George Illawarra are the surprise packets of 2017, incredibly leading the NRL in attack with 27.17ppg. The Dragons are second on the ladder with a 5-1 record. North Queensland, conversely, have been arguably the biggest disappointments of the year despite sitting fourth on the ladder with a 4-2 record. Home losses to Manly and the Wests Tigers have highlighted how much they are missing their go-forward.
St George Illawarra are the surprise packets of 2017, incredibly leading the NRL in attack with 27.17ppg. The Dragons are second on the ladder with a 5-1 record. North Queensland, conversely, have been arguably the biggest disappointments of the year despite sitting fourth on the ladder with a 4-2 record. Home losses to Manly and the Wests Tigers have highlighted how much they are missing their go-forward.
Key Matchup
Gareth Widdop v Michael Morgan. Widdop has been outstanding for the Dragons and will have plenty of clubs circling as he is off-contract at season’s end. He’s scored five tries and had six try-assists over the opening six rounds. The pressure is all on Morgan in this one. Plenty of experts have been critical of his ability to lead the side when Thurston doesn’t play and he has failed to deliver. He’s more of a ball runner, but needs to direct the Cowboys around the park if they’re going to have any success while Thurston is out injured.
Gareth Widdop v Michael Morgan. Widdop has been outstanding for the Dragons and will have plenty of clubs circling as he is off-contract at season’s end. He’s scored five tries and had six try-assists over the opening six rounds. The pressure is all on Morgan in this one. Plenty of experts have been critical of his ability to lead the side when Thurston doesn’t play and he has failed to deliver. He’s more of a ball runner, but needs to direct the Cowboys around the park if they’re going to have any success while Thurston is out injured.
Stats That Matter
St George Illawarra are 5-1 ATS with a 3-3 total record while North Queensland are 3-3 ATS with a 4-2 under number. The Cowboys have won 9 of the last 14 against the Dragons including 3 of the last 4 in Wollongong. Six of the last eight matches between the sides have tallied 38 points or fewer. The Saints are 8-5 ATS since 2014 in Wollongong with 10 of the 13 games going under. The Cowboys have covered just 2 of their last 9 interstate clashes.
St George Illawarra are 5-1 ATS with a 3-3 total record while North Queensland are 3-3 ATS with a 4-2 under number. The Cowboys have won 9 of the last 14 against the Dragons including 3 of the last 4 in Wollongong. Six of the last eight matches between the sides have tallied 38 points or fewer. The Saints are 8-5 ATS since 2014 in Wollongong with 10 of the 13 games going under. The Cowboys have covered just 2 of their last 9 interstate clashes.
Final Thoughts
The Dragons look good things here, but the Cowboys pack is still solid enough, with the rampaging Coen Hess and Jason Taumalolo in the side to keep it tighter than most expect. Thurston missed last year’s clash in Wollongong and the Dragons grinded out a 14-10 win. Dragons 1-12 is The Wolf’s best play.
The Dragons look good things here, but the Cowboys pack is still solid enough, with the rampaging Coen Hess and Jason Taumalolo in the side to keep it tighter than most expect. Thurston missed last year’s clash in Wollongong and the Dragons grinded out a 14-10 win. Dragons 1-12 is The Wolf’s best play.
How It’s Shaping Up
St George Illawarra by 8
St George Illawarra by 8
Best Bet
St George Illawarra 1-12 ($3)
St George Illawarra 1-12 ($3)
Other Recommended Bets
Under 38 ($1.88)
Under 38 ($1.88)
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