WTA Wimbledon Day Eight Tips: Halep favourite for match of the day
Paula Badosa versus Simona Halep is the headline match on Monday in the women's singles at Wimbledon, and returning to preview this and the other matches on Monday is Dan Weston...
Halep's return game makes her favourite
Both Badosa and Halep are yet to drop a set in the tournament so far, with Badosa getting a very strong win over Petra Kvitová in round three, in a match where both players failed to take their break point chances. Badosa's safer style prevailed, with the Spaniard having far fewer unforced errors than Kvitova, but almost a third of the unforced error count that the Czech made.
Halep has dominated limited opposition so far (with arguably the exception of Karolina Muchova, who she was still a strong favourite against), and of course, Badosa is a big upgrade on those players.
However, this year on grass, Halep's numbers are hugely impressive, breaking opposition over 50% of the time and this makes her a justified pre-match favourite at the current 1.58.
Anisimova should have too much for Tan
Amanda Anisimova picked up a good underdog winner for us on Saturday against Cori Gauff, dropping just three games in the final two sets, and now meets the surprise package of the tournament so far, Harmony Tan.
Tan has beaten Serena Williams, Sara Sorribes Tormo and Katie Boulter so far, all as a 3.00 plus underdog, and will need to do the same to make the quarter finals, with the market having her at 3.95 to get past Anisimova.
Anisimova has been pretty impressive on grass this season - running at 105% combined service/return points won - and Tan will need to play at an extremely high level to challenge her today. It's going to be fascinating to see whether the French player has another big shock in her capabilities.
Rybakina slightly short-priced against Martic
In the other matches, Elena Rybakina is 1.54 to get past Petra Martic, who is strong in quick conditions but has struggled in recent times. Again, both players are yet to drop a set and have both also had underdog victories to get to this stage, so something has to give here.
Rybakina has the edge on serve numbers on grass and, I think, a higher current upside. I think the current market line is, however, a little short, but it's not hugely so.
Giant-killing Cornet favourite to get past Tomljanovic
Finally, giant-killer Alize Cornet faces Ajla Tomljanovic in a report of last year's second round match here. That day, Cornet was a 1.70 pre-match favourite but lost a swingy three-setter, and the French player is a little bigger today at 1.85 to continue her run at SW19.
Cornet got past tournament favourite Iga Swiatek with ease in round three, and also performed well in the Bad Homburg warm-up event for this tournament, so has now won six from her last seven on grass, including wins over Swiatek and Angelique Kerber - so no player in the draw should underestimate her.
Tomljanovic got past Barbora Krejcikova in three sets on Saturday and is the next to try to knock out Cornet, but I do think Cornet should be favourite. Over the last couple of years on grass, Cornet has marginally higher service and return points won percentages, and surely comes into this match in as good form as she has been for a long while.
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