New Zealand Warriors v Melbourne Storm
Friday, March 10, 6pm (AEDT), Mt Smart Stadium,
Auckland
The Warriors did it the hard way against the Knights, but finally broke their 8-year Round 1 hoodoo and will play a consecutive home match when they host the Storm, who grinded out a Round 1 win over the Bulldogs at Belmore.
History
The spoils have been shared in the last 6 matches between these sides, with both winning three matches a piece. However, the Storm did the double in 2016, with a 21-14 victory at Mt Smart Stadium in Round 3 and followed it up, with a 42-0 drubbing in Round 8 when the Storm hosted the Warriors at AAMI Park.
The spoils have been shared in the last 6 matches between these sides, with both winning three matches a piece. However, the Storm did the double in 2016, with a 21-14 victory at Mt Smart Stadium in Round 3 and followed it up, with a 42-0 drubbing in Round 8 when the Storm hosted the Warriors at AAMI Park.
Form
New Zealand got away with one in Round 1, sneaking home 26-22 against Newcastle. The Warriors blew a 20-8 lead to trail 22-20 before a late Ryan Hoffman try gave New Zealand a rare Round 1 win. Melbourne went into their Round 1 clash with Canterbury without stars Billy Slater and Tohu Harris as well as a host of off-season losses and then lost Jesse Bromwich in the opening minutes but were typically gritty in downing the Bulldogs 12-6. The Storm once again signalled their season would be marked by defence.
New Zealand got away with one in Round 1, sneaking home 26-22 against Newcastle. The Warriors blew a 20-8 lead to trail 22-20 before a late Ryan Hoffman try gave New Zealand a rare Round 1 win. Melbourne went into their Round 1 clash with Canterbury without stars Billy Slater and Tohu Harris as well as a host of off-season losses and then lost Jesse Bromwich in the opening minutes but were typically gritty in downing the Bulldogs 12-6. The Storm once again signalled their season would be marked by defence.
Key Matchup
Shaun Johnson v Cooper Cronk. If Round 1 is a sign of things to come, Johnson could be in for a big 2017 season, after playing hurt for large parts of 2016. Johnson was instrumental in the Round 1 win over the Knights, with 3 try-assists and 2 line-breaks. Mr Consistent, Cronk produced a workman-like performance in the win over the Bulldogs and will need to provide good field position with his kicking game against the Warriors, especially if the forwards struggle in the absence of enforcer Jesse Bromwich.
Shaun Johnson v Cooper Cronk. If Round 1 is a sign of things to come, Johnson could be in for a big 2017 season, after playing hurt for large parts of 2016. Johnson was instrumental in the Round 1 win over the Knights, with 3 try-assists and 2 line-breaks. Mr Consistent, Cronk produced a workman-like performance in the win over the Bulldogs and will need to provide good field position with his kicking game against the Warriors, especially if the forwards struggle in the absence of enforcer Jesse Bromwich.
Stats That Matter
New Zealand failed to cover their opening match while they went over while Melbourne covered and went well under. The under is 26-15 when the Storm concede 12 or fewer in the last four seasons. Home underdogs who scored 25 or more are 37-17 ATS since 2013 with the under 33-21 while since 2008 Rounds 1-4 they are 15-8 ATS. Home underdogs cover at 66% in the first four rounds dating back to 2008 with the under hitting at 57% in matches with a home underdog getting 3.5 or less. Night games go under at 60% in the first four rounds since 2012. Since 2013 home teams cover at 55% with the under hitting at 55% when on a five-day backup when scoring 26 the week prior.
New Zealand failed to cover their opening match while they went over while Melbourne covered and went well under. The under is 26-15 when the Storm concede 12 or fewer in the last four seasons. Home underdogs who scored 25 or more are 37-17 ATS since 2013 with the under 33-21 while since 2008 Rounds 1-4 they are 15-8 ATS. Home underdogs cover at 66% in the first four rounds dating back to 2008 with the under hitting at 57% in matches with a home underdog getting 3.5 or less. Night games go under at 60% in the first four rounds since 2012. Since 2013 home teams cover at 55% with the under hitting at 55% when on a five-day backup when scoring 26 the week prior.
Final Thoughts
The Wolf is always cautious when it comes to backing the Warriors, but the loss of prop Jesse Bromwich cannot be underestimated and the Storm could be leg-heavy after their grinding win over the Bulldogs in torrid conditions and did spend the majority of the second half defending their line. Throw in a consecutive away trip early in the season and The Wolf is taking the home side in an upset.
The Wolf is always cautious when it comes to backing the Warriors, but the loss of prop Jesse Bromwich cannot be underestimated and the Storm could be leg-heavy after their grinding win over the Bulldogs in torrid conditions and did spend the majority of the second half defending their line. Throw in a consecutive away trip early in the season and The Wolf is taking the home side in an upset.
How It’s Shaping Up
New Zealand by 4
New Zealand by 4
Best BetNew Zealand +2 ($1.90)
Other Recommended Bets
New Zealand 1-12 ($3.50)
New Zealand 1-12 ($3.50)
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