Everton v West Brom
Saturday 11 March, 15:00
Saturday 11 March, 15:00
Everton
Ronald Koeman's side are coming off a 3-2 defeat at Tottenham last Sunday, which was their first loss in 10 Premier League matches.
The top six may be out of reach - they are five points short of Manchester United and have played a game more - but they are comfortably best of the rest in seventh place. That position will take them into the Europa League if one of the top six wins the FA Cup.
West Brom
The Baggies are also coming off a defeat, having lost 2-0 at home to Crystal Palace last weekend, which was put down in some quarters to an easing off after they reached the magical 40-point mark. Tony Pulis almost admitted as much, saying: "We weren't at it right from the start."
Pulis's side might seem in something of a no man's land - four points behind seventh-placed Everton and five ahead of Stoke in ninth - but if they harbour hopes of a Europa League place this could be a decisive match for them to stop Everton getting too far ahead.
Match Odds
Everton are strong favourites at 1.71 and justifiably so, given their home record of W6 D2 L0 against teams outside the top six. Their last defeat against a team below them in the table was away at Watford in early December.
With Romelu Lukaku in top form, their scoring stats have been impressive in recent weeks with tallies of two, six, four and three in their last four home league games. Lukaku has scored in each of those matches, which makes him a key player against his former club.
West Brom's chance hinges on your view of Everton - are they close to being a top-six side or merely just one of the better mid-table sides? If it's the former, West Brom's away record against top-six sides is poor (four defeats out of four, with only one goal scored); but if it's the latter, the Baggies have a better record against the sides from seventh to 12th (W1 D2 L0 on the road, scoring every time).
The stats indicate Everton are more like top-six material. In a mini-league involving them and the top six, the Toffees would lie a competitive fourth whereas every lower-placed Premier League team bar Leicester (sixth) would rank bottom of a similar mini-league.
Everton won 2-1 at West Brom in August and that is the only defeat against a side from seventh to 12th for the Baggies, which indicates there is a gap in class. Everton were still bedding in with Koeman at that stage and are much closer to a finished product now.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Both sides are among the seven Premier League teams with a majority of games under 2.5 goals.
Everton have had 15 out of 27 under 2.5 goals (eight out of 13 at home) and West Brom have had 14 out of 27 overall (eight out of 13 away).
The biggest factor in favour of a higher score is that a slight majority of West Brom's matches have gone over 2.5 goals when they have conceded (12 out of 22) and several of Everton's recent home games have seen them rack up high tallies.
Overall, though, most of the figures point towards under 2.5 goals.
Asian Handicap
Win to nil is the preferred method for Everton, with eight of their 12 wins under Koeman coming in that fashion. But it is hard to shake the feeling that West Brom might score and preference to boost the odds on an Everton win is to go down the Asian handicap route.
Everton are 2.20 off -1 on the Asian handicap, which means stakes are returned in the event of a one-goal home win but anything above that would be a winning bet.
Six of Everton's eight home wins have been by two goals or more.
Ref Watch
Graham Scott has not had many Premier League matches this season but tends to be a quiet ref, with 20 or 30 bookings points in three of his five games (the others had 50 and 55).
Recommended Bet
Back Everton off -1 on Asian Handicap at 2.20
Opta Stat
Tony Pulis' side won this exact fixture 1-0 last season thanks to Salomon Rondon's goal - it's the only goal in the last three Premier League games between the sides at Goodison Park. Under 1.5 goals is available at 3.50.
0 nhận xét Blogger 0 Facebook
Post a Comment