New Zealand Warriors v Newcastle Knights
Sunday, March 5, 2pm (AEDT), Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland
Expectations are high in Auckland with the return of Roger Tuivasa Sheck and the signing of Kieran Foran, who should be available for the Warriors in Round 3. The window is slowly closing on the Warriors chance to win the NRL premiership and they can’t afford to be dropping matches against last year’s wooden spoon winners, Newcastle.
History
The Warriors have won the last three clashes with the Knights and did the double over the Novocastrians in 2016 by big margins. They won by 22 points at Mt Smart Stadium in Round 4 and won by 36 points at Hunter Stadium in Round 14. The Knights have lost 10 of their last 11 matches at Mt Smart Stadium.
The Warriors have won the last three clashes with the Knights and did the double over the Novocastrians in 2016 by big margins. They won by 22 points at Mt Smart Stadium in Round 4 and won by 36 points at Hunter Stadium in Round 14. The Knights have lost 10 of their last 11 matches at Mt Smart Stadium.
Form
New Zealand were the most disappointing team of the Auckland Nines with not a single win despite going in as second favourites. They then got whipped 30-18 by the Storm before a convincing 26-6 win over the Gold Coast. Newcastle didn’t get out of the pool stage of the Auckland Nines but bounced back well in their only trial with an astonishing 44-0 win over Canberra at Seiffert Oval.
New Zealand were the most disappointing team of the Auckland Nines with not a single win despite going in as second favourites. They then got whipped 30-18 by the Storm before a convincing 26-6 win over the Gold Coast. Newcastle didn’t get out of the pool stage of the Auckland Nines but bounced back well in their only trial with an astonishing 44-0 win over Canberra at Seiffert Oval.
Key Matchup
Shaun Johnson v Trent Hodkinson. If the Warriors are to shake their mental demons in 2017, Johnson will need to have a Dally M Medal-like season. There’s no doubt he was playing injured in 2016 and will be ready to fire first-up against the Knights. Hodkinson will have added responsibility in 2017, with a young side around him and the job became a little tougher after the suspension of halves partner Jarrod Mullen.
Shaun Johnson v Trent Hodkinson. If the Warriors are to shake their mental demons in 2017, Johnson will need to have a Dally M Medal-like season. There’s no doubt he was playing injured in 2016 and will be ready to fire first-up against the Knights. Hodkinson will have added responsibility in 2017, with a young side around him and the job became a little tougher after the suspension of halves partner Jarrod Mullen.
Stats That Matter
Since 2008 in Rounds 1-4, home favourites of 12.5 or more are 7-3 ATS with the over 8-2 in those matches. Over the last four seasons the Warriors are 10-14 ATS when favoured by more than a converted try at home with the over 16-8. The over is 9-4 in day matches over the same time. The over has hit in 11 of the last 18 Knights road games when getting more than 6.5 points and 7 of 11 when getting 12 or more. The Knights have covered 4 of their last 6 day games. The Warriors have won and covered just one of their last nine Round 1 games. The Knights are 5-4 straight and ATS in Round 1 matches.
Since 2008 in Rounds 1-4, home favourites of 12.5 or more are 7-3 ATS with the over 8-2 in those matches. Over the last four seasons the Warriors are 10-14 ATS when favoured by more than a converted try at home with the over 16-8. The over is 9-4 in day matches over the same time. The over has hit in 11 of the last 18 Knights road games when getting more than 6.5 points and 7 of 11 when getting 12 or more. The Knights have covered 4 of their last 6 day games. The Warriors have won and covered just one of their last nine Round 1 games. The Knights are 5-4 straight and ATS in Round 1 matches.
Final Thoughts
It’s hard to see anything other than a dominant Warriors win in this one. The Knights have struggled in Auckland for a long time and the spine of Dylan Phythian, Brock Lamb, Trent Hodkinson and Danny Levi is easily the worst in the league.
It’s hard to see anything other than a dominant Warriors win in this one. The Knights have struggled in Auckland for a long time and the spine of Dylan Phythian, Brock Lamb, Trent Hodkinson and Danny Levi is easily the worst in the league.
How It’s Shaping Up
Warriors by 20
Warriors by 20
Best BetOver 46.5 ($1.88)
Other Recommended Bets
New Zealand -14.5 ($1.90)
New Zealand -14.5 ($1.90)
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