Napoli v Real Madrid: Back an entertaining draw that would suit Real

Napoli v Real Madrid
Tuesday, 19:45
Live On BT Sport 1

Napoli

The Italians are 3-1 down from the first-leg and that defeat proved to be the start of an erratic run of form from Napoli.

Going into the match with the Champions League holders, Napoli were unbeaten in 18 games. Since their defeat, they have lost two of their last four games, with both Atalanta and Juventus claiming victories.

Yet at the weekend, Napoli bounced back with an impressive away win at second placed Roma. Once again it was Dries Mertens' contribution which proved vital, scoring both goals in a 2-1 win.

Mertens now has 16 goals from his last 15 games and along with Jose Callejon and Lorenzo Insigne, is part of a trio of skilful forwards that have eased the pain of losing Gonzalo Higuain in the summer.

Real Madrid

Madrid went a goal down to Napoli in the first leg before recovering to win the game comfortably.

While things are going well in Europe, domestically they have a battle on. A recent defeat to Valencia and a shock draw at home to Las Palmas has seen Barcelona take the lead in the title race. While Madrid can go back to the top if they win their game in hand, the pressure is on, with Sevilla only four points behind in third.

Real may have won the Champions League in two of the last three seasons, but on neither occasion did they also win La Liga. Competing on both fronts will be a challenge for Zinedine Zidane and his team and it was noticeable that the French coach picked something of a second-string side for the match against Eibar at the weekend, which Madrid won 4-1.

Dani Carvajal, Marcelo and Toni Kroos were all on the bench, while Cristiano Ronaldo was omitted from the squad with an injury and Gareth Bale was suspended. All of these players should return to the team to face Napoli.

Ref Watch

Turkish referee Cuneyt Cakir will take charge of this one. His last four matches have seen him produce an average of 6.25 yellow cards per game, along with two red cards. He sent off Manchester City's Fernandinho in the last Champions League match he officiated.

Match Odds

Real Madrid are the favourites at 2.44, with Napoli out at 2.92 and the draw at 3.90.

The draw looks big considering that Real drew three of their six group games and when it's a result that would see them progress to the quarter finals. For a safer bet, you could go for the 1.51 for Madrid in the Double Chance market.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5 goals is the big favourite at 1.54, with unders at 2.72.

It's a price that looks justifiable. Real have seen three goals or more in 15 of their last 16 games, with nine of those matches producing over 3.5 goals, which is available at 2.28.

To Score

As previously mentioned, Dries Mertens is the man in form for Napoli and is priced at [2.67] to findthe net.

For Madrid, Cristiano Ronaldo has been uncharacteristically lacking in goals in the Champions League this season, scoring just twice in seven appearances. Yet at a price of 2.04 he's got to be backed in a campaign in which he's scored 25 goals in 31 games overall.

Recommended Bets

Back the draw at 4.10
Back over 3.5 goals at 2.28
Back Ronaldo to score at 2.04