Dortmund v Benfica: History suggests hosts are crashing out

Dortmund v Benfica
Wednesday, 19:45 
Live on BT Sport 3

Borussia Dortmund

Dortmund did everything but score in Lisbon a few weeks ago. That included Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang missing a penalty, having 70% possession and 12 shots to Benfica's two. That missed penalty may yet prove very costly indeed.

Since that match they've been pretty ruthless in the Bundesliga, winning 3-0, 3-0 and 6-2. All of which means they come into this match in excellent form, something which wasn't the case ahead of the first leg.

They will be without Mario Gotze, suffering from strange metabolic disturbances that are contributing to ongoing muscular problems. Worse still, they might be without Marco Reus, who suffered an injury at the weekend. The reason his absence would be such a big blow is that he's scored eight goals and provided four assists in his last nine Champions League games at home. So say Opta. Sven Bender also misses out.

Benfica

The Eagles share the same excellent record that Dortmund do since the first leg. They've won all four matches, three in the league and one in the cup.

Kostas Mitroglou, who we successfully tipped to score in the first leg, has carried on with his outstanding scoring form, grabbing five goals across those four matches. That makes it 18 goals in his last 17 appearances. Few players in Europe can boast that sort of record. Fun fact: Mitroglou holds German citizenship after playing in Germany at youth level.

But his partner in crime, Jonas, has been struggling with injury and won't be 100%. Rui Vitoria will have to think long and hard whether he can afford to start a player who isn't fully fit in a game with this intensity.

Match Odds

Dortmund are 1.38. True, they were far more impressive in the Group Stages than Benfica, dominated the first leg and have a record of winning all of their last five in Europe against Portuguese opposition.

Man for man they also have the better players and the Westfalenstadion is an intimidating place to play.

Despite all that, 1.38 looks a bit short. They may have bossed the first leg but you've got to convert your chances at this level. And here's a worry for any would-be Dortmund backer: their big star Aubemeyang historically isn't one for the big occasions. He's yet to score in seven Champions League knockout games as Opta remind us.

To Score

We've just discussed Aubemeyang and with that stat in mind, a quote of around 1.65 is one to avoid. Maybe even one to lay. Especially when you consider he may be off penalty duty after that costly miss in Lisbon.

If Marco Reus starts, he's probably the one to go with given his record in home ties in this competition. He'll be about 2.40 but that's obviously no value if he doesn't make the starting XI and only gets 20 minutes at the end.

If you really, really want to go with a Dortmund player and want a fancier price then how about wing-back Raphael Guerreiro at 5.00? He scored at the weekend, has five for the season and may relish facing Portuguese opposition.

It's a big ask for Mitroglou to just keep on scoring but then again, it's a big price on him doing so. 4.00 or better looks serious value on a player enjoying his rich vein of form. The longer Benfica can keep Dortmund out, the more risks the Germans will need to take and the Greek star looks to be in the mood to punish any mistakes. Tough as a trip to Dortmund is, should a player averaging better than a goal a game in his last 18 matches be 4.00?

To qualify

Obvious as this may sound, there's a lot that can go wrong if you're trailing 1-0 from the first leg. 0-0 looks unlikely here but 2-1 to Dortmund could be a far more plausible result. That would be more than enough for Benfica to go through. They've scored in 33 of their 34 matches this season so you'd think they'd get one here even though this would rank right up there with the toughest challenges they've had this season.

And if they do score, Dortmund will need three. Yeah, they might get them but it's a big ask against an organized side, in good form, under an excellent Manager. And there are good long-term stats to suggest it will be Benfica's name in the draw for the next round: When winning the first leg of a UEFA competition tie, Benfica have progressed 47 times, losing only eight. Their record is even stronger when the first game finishes 1-0; they have won 12 such ties, including against Zenit at this stage last term.

Add to that the fact that only 30% of teams losing the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie 1-0 have gone on to progress in 30 incidences of that first leg scoreline and it's easy to come to the conclusion that Benfica are value to qualify at 2.20. Especially if Dortmund are without Reus.

Recommended Bets

1pt Back Benfica to qualify @ 2.26
0.5pts Back Kostas Mitroglou to score @ 4.00