AFL Preview Round 19: Tigers v Magpies

Richmond v Collingwood
Sat 1:45pm at MCG

In one of the most anticipated games of the year, Richmond will take on Collingwood at the MCG on Saturday afternoon- a contest that may well be a preview of a September encounter. The Tigers comfortably accounted for the Pies by 43 points a few months ago despite a see-sawing encounter for much of the game, and they will be supremely confident of recording their 18th consecutive win at the home of footy after they roared back to life with a comprehensive thumping over the Saints last Friday. The Magpies rebounded impressively as well after falling to the Eagles a fortnight ago, and Nathan Buckley will be pleased with the number of contributors in their win over North Melbourne. All those contributors will need to lift again after the huge pressure the Tigers are likely to throw at them, and you can be sure this will be an exciting game for fans and punters alike. 

Form

Richmond (WWWLW) – You can be sure of one thing in the 2018 Richmond vintage, an away loss with be followed by a dominant home win that dispels any doubts they may have accumulated. The Tigers were simply unstoppable against St. Kilda last week, finishing 58 points up at half-time after they suffered a nail-biting loss to the Giants up in Sydney two rounds ago. Dusty has really lifted over the past few weeks (though Dimma would prefer a few less turnovers by foot) and the seamless return of Dion Prestia has provided them with some great drive on the outside to go with his exquisite ball-use. This premiership side has found ANOTHER dimenson!

Collingwood (WWWLW) – It was a match they simply HAD to win to stay in touch with the Top 4 (and a tough run of games coming up) and boy, did they! They thrashed the Roos by 66 points thanks some fierce attack on the footy and silky ball movement that led to forwards like de Goey, Mihocek, Hoskin-Elliott and Stephenson both finding themselves in acres of space multiple times. The fact they out-tackled (+36) the Roos despite having far more possessions highlighted their superior work-rate and tackle effectiveness, and the combative Taylor Adams was a big part of that. In Treloar’s absence he has really stepped up around the footy with some influential two-way running, and the former Giant ended up with 28 diposals, 10 tackles, 5 clearances and a goal against North.

Stats That Matter– Richmond have won 5 of the last 6 meetings– Josh Caddy kicked 4 goals in their Round 6 clash earlier this year– Brodie Grundy is the 2nd ranked Fantasy scorer this season, with 110+ on 12 occasions– The Tigers have won 22 of 24 games at the MCG since the start of 2017– Collingwood are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 matches at the ‘G– Kane Lambert is averaging 27 disposals per game in his past 6– Richmond are +216 points in 4th quarters this year (winning 13 of 17)

Betting Data

2018 Line: Richmond– 10-7; Collingwood- 10-7

2018 Over-Under: Richmond- 8-9; Collingwood– 9-8

What To Expect

A few weeks ago, many billeted this game as a Grand Final preview, but the Tigers clearly have the edge in this one. In their Round 6 meeting the Pies stayed competitive for the first 3 quarters, before the Tigers superior run, pressure and composure allowed them to run away with the win in the last quarter. Wolfie expects this match to follow a similar script, as many Richmond games this season have. Collingwood’s makeshift defence might well be exposed, and Buckley will need every ounce of his tactical acumen to get the W in this one. Tigers for 18 victories in a row at the ‘G.

How It’s Shaping UpRichmond by 19

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Richmond -16.5 ($1.90)
Value Bet: HT/FT Double- Collingwood/Richmond ($6.00)
Player Prop: Kane Lambert 25+ Disposals ($1.67)
First Goalscorer: Jordan de Goey