AFL Preview Round 19: Bulldogs v Power

Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide
Sun 3:20pm at Mars Stadium

AFL footy heads to Ballarat for the first time in 2018, where the Bulldogs will host a Power side desperate to get itself back on the winners list and back into the Top 4. The Doggies have been completely uncompetitive in their last 3 games- though truth be told they have had to endure a horrendous injury toll. There’s no acceptable excuses at this level though, and supporters will be hopeful they can at least keep it tight against a side that is down on form. Good luck doing that, though, because you can bet Ken Hinkley has been revving up the Power to fry these Doggies.

Form

Western Bulldogs (LWLLL) – They managed to get the jump on Geelong a few weeks ago thanks to a Harry Taylor shank, but it has been all downhill since then- losing by an average of 55 points over the past three weeks. Not only are they losing, but the players are dropping like flies, too. When they bring their 2016 pressure they can have a few teams holding their breath- but trying to pick when that will appear is like landing the Melbourne Cup First Four.

Port Adelaide (WWWLL) – Oh Port. 3 steps forward, 5 steps back. They have been absolutely electric at stages this season (usually when they are under the pump) but then the pressure and tackling they have become well known for completely disappears. They didn’t turn up against Freo, and for two thirds of the game against the Giants, they weren’t threatening either. They need to bring back the hunger they played with that saw them defeat the reigning Premiers.

Stats That Matter– Port won their Round 13 clash by 57 points– The Dogs are the 2nd worst defence in the league, conceding 97.5 points per game– Charlie Dixon averages 3 goals per game as a Power player against the Bulldogs– Overs has saluted for 4 consecutive Bulldogs games– Ollie Wines had 35 disposals, 7 tackles, a goal and 137 Fantasy Points in their Round 13 meeting– The Bulldogs have won just two 4th quarters this season (-169 points) while the Power have lost just one 4th quarter in their last 6 games– Tom Rockliff averages 117 Fantasy Points per game against the Dogs
– The Power have not covered the spread since Round 14
– Jack Macrae has had 110+ Fantasy Points in 9 of his 14 games this year

Betting Data

2018 Line: Western Bulldogs– 5-12; Port Adelaide– 6-11

2018 Over-Under: Western Bulldogs– 8-9; Port Adelaide– 5-12

What To Expect

The Wolf is expecting the Power to bring some brutish physicality to this game- particularly in the opening term. The Doggies struggle against contested ball-winners, so expecting Wines, Powell-Pepper and Rockliff to have them on the back foot from the opening bounce. Having said that, Port are a big Unders side, and in freezing, windy Ballarat, with some rain expected, it is hard to see a huge amount of points in this game….unless big Charlie has a day out.

How It’s Shaping UpPort by 28

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Total Points UNDER 158.5 ($1.90)
Value Bet: Sam Powell-Pepper 10+ Tackles ($5.00)
Player Prop: Ollie Wines 30+ Disposals ($2.40)
First Goalscorer: Charlie Dixon