AFL Preview Round 19: Dockers v Hawks

Fremantle v Hawthorn
Sun 4:40pm at Optus Stadium

It’s not exactly a blockbuster to end Round 19, but for Hawks fans this game against the Dockers is as important as they come. Grimly hanging onto 8th place, every game from here on in is essentially a must-win; but that is no easy feat against a Freo side that seems to grow an inch at home.

Form

Fremantle (WLLWL) – After their impressive display against Port a fortnight ago, it was to be expected the bubble was going burst for Lyon’s young charges against a hungry, in-form Essendon side last round. They weren’t embarrassed by any means, but they certainly proved once again that they are a different side away from home and the Bombers midfield took advantage of a young Dockers engine room missing their two most influential players. Cerra, Brayshaw, Banfield, Jones and co. are very promising young players, but it goes without saying it will take awhile to show that talent consistently.

Hawthorn (WLWLW) – The Hawks are precariously placed in 8th, just 0.8% above Geelong and they can thank their lucky stars they were presented with the perfect opportunity to boost their percentage in such a close season. Led by the irrepressible Tom Mitchell, who continues to suffer from the effect of leather poisoning, Hawthorn flew out of the blocks. Luke Breust continued his march towards an All-Australian spot with 5 goals, proving once again he is one of the smartest forwards in the league, and ‘Poppy’ turned back the clock with 4 goals to go with his 22 disposals. Clarkson will no doubt be a little peeved they let their foot off the throat somewhat in the 2nd half, but at the end of the day a 72 point win (and no extra injuries) is gold at this time of the year.

Stats That Matter– Hawthorn have won 10 of the last 11 meetings– Freo average 81 points at Home compared to 65 points Away– Tom Mitchell is averaging 159 Fantasy Points per game over his last 4– The Dockers have won just three 3rd quarters this season (-140 points)– Lachie Neale has had 30+ disposals in 4 of his last 5 games– Freo are 2-6 on the Over/Under at Home this year– Hawthorn have covered the spread and gone overs in their last 3 Away games

Betting Data

2018 Line: Fremantle – 8-8; Hawthorn- 9-7

2018 Over-Under: Fremantle – 9-7; Hawthorn- 6-10

What To Expect

Wolfie is well aware of Freo’s record at home but this experienced Hawthorn side are no mugs away either. There is so much on the line for the Hawks and Clarko will have them primed for this all week. The Wolf thinks the Hawks forward line will be too much for the Dockers defence to handle, so long as the midfield can handle the enthusiastic Freo pressure that will be coming their way.

How It’s Shaping UpHawthorn by 19

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Hawthorn -15.5 ($1.91)
Value Bet: Hawthorn -15.5 & Total OVER 159.5 ($4.00)
Player Prop: Tom Mitchell 140+ Fantasy Points ($2.75)
First Goalscorer: David Mundy