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Brisbane Broncos v Sydney Roosters

Thursday, April 6, 7.50pm (AEST), Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane





What a cracking contest to kick off Round 6. Both the Broncos and Roosters are coming off a loss and will be keen to return to the winner’s circle. The Broncos could be without centre James Roberts, who is battling a hamstring injury, while Roosters enforcer Dylan Napa will spend a month on the sidelines with an ankle injury.
History
The last 12 matches between these two have been split evenly while 5 of the last 6 have topped 38 points. The Roosters won last year’s Round 21 clash 32-16, with new Titan recruit Dale Copley scoring a double for the Roosters. The Broncos bounced back in Round 26, with a 24-14 victory at Suncorp Stadium. Jordan Kahu crossed for two tries in the 10-point win.
Form
Brisbane are remarkably 2-3 and outside the Top 8 despite not putting in a bad performance all season. The Broncos have the third best defence in the NRL but are struggling with the ball averaging just 15.6ppg through five rounds. The Roosters opened the season with four straight wins before an upset loss at home to Manly. The Roosters rank top four in attack while their defence has been outstanding for the most part.
Key Matchup
Ben Hunt v Mitchell Pearce. Hunt came out during the week full of praise for Pearce and the start he has made to the season. It’s been a mixed bag for Hunt during 2016 and he’ll need to take control here with his direction and kicking game if the Broncos are to get the result. Meanwhile, Pearce has been outstanding for the Roosters and his form has seen him come back into Origin calculations. His combination with Keary has gelled quickly and like Hunt, his kicking game will be pivotal if the Roosters are to succeed here.
Stats That Matter
Brisbane are 2-3 ATS with a 3-2 under record while the Sydney Roosters are 3-2 ATS with a 3-2 under record. The last 12 between these two have been split evenly while 5 of the last 6 have topped 38 points. Brisbane are 22-14 ATS as a favourite at Suncorp since 2014 but are just 5-5 ATS when favoured by 3.5 or less. As a home favourite off conceding 10 points or fewer, the Broncos are 7-1 ATS while off scoring 12 or fewer they are 5-2 ATS.
Final Thoughts
There won’t be much in this and for that reason, The Wolf is leaning towards the home side in front of a packed Suncorp Stadium. The forward battle will go a long way to deciding this one and the loss of Napa is a massive blow to the Roosters chances of winning the arm wrestle.
How It’s Shaping Up
Brisbane by 2
Best Bet
Brisbane ($1.80)

Other Recommended Bets
Under 36 ($1.88)

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