Tuesday 4 April, 19:45
Burnley
With nine victories at Turf Moor this season, Burnley have registered three more home wins than Man Utd, two more than Man City and the same number as Arsenal.
And yet they find themselves just five points above the drop zone following the weekend.
Burnley remained on nine home victories after being turned over by Spurs on Saturday; no shame in that but victory for Hull left Clarets fans as anxious as they've probably felt all season in terms of staving off relegation.
The positive view is that Burnley could finish in the top half if only they could add a few away wins. The negative that has kept some Burnley fans awake at night is 'what if our home form suddenly goes?'
After their previous three home losses (Swansea, Arsenal, Man City), Sean Dyche's men bounced back by taking all three points in their next home start. A repeat would be hugely welcome here.
The realists/pessimists are struggling to see another bounceback victory having now witnessed Burnley fail to win any of their last eight games, including none in the last three at home.
Stoke
First-half goals from Jonathan Walters and Marc Muniesa gave Stoke a 2-0 win over Burnley back in early December.
But beyond that formline which could actually mean almost nothing given the discrepancy between Burnley's home and away form, there little to cheer for Mark Hughes' men.
They've lost three of their last five games in the top-flight and, on current form, they're challenging Burnley for the division's worst performers on the road.
A 2-0 loss to Leicester on Saturday means they've picked up just four points from a possible 32 in their last eight away games and they haven't managed a single goal on the road since beating Sunderland in mid-January. That was five games ago.
There shouldn't be anything to worry about in terms of the drop as Stoke are in their usual position of ninth although the meagre haul of 36 points isn't enough yet and it's a jump of eight points to West Brom, who are just one place above them.
Hughes said after the Leicester loss: "We didn't perform. We never produced the quality that was required." He will expect a reaction at Turf Moor and, at the very least, a show of the more dogged spirit they displayed in a recent 0-0 draw at Man City.
Match Odds
Burnley are 2.50 to hit double figures in the home wins column while Stoke are 3.35 to score their first away victory since beating rock-bottom Sunderland 3-1. Stoke's other two road wins, incidentally, were at Watford and Hull. The draw is 3.30.
This pair have only played each other twice at Turf Moor in the Premier League and both matches ended in stalemates - 1-1 in 2010 and 0-0 in 2015.
It does seem fair to give Burnley the benefit of the doubt for the Spurs defeat but the bottom line is that they're winless in eight games.
Despite being below their best against Leicester, Stoke had a Marko Arnautovic 'goal' incorrectly ruled out for offside and Peter Crouch missed a sitter with his head.
Stoke aren't in form but look capable of getting something here against a host side becoming increasingly nervous.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
There's a big tilt towards Unders here at 1.64 and you can certainly make a strong case for it.
It would have landed in seven of Stoke's last nine games and in all of Burnley's last seven home matches.
Stoke's lack of clean sheets on the road (one in eight) suggests a goal for Burnley but that's fine for Unders backers.
The thought of the hosts surpassing 2.5 on their own seems very unlikely give that Dyche's men have only scored more than two goals in a match three times this season and not managed that feat once in 2017.
Correct Score
As I like the draw and also Under 2.5 goals, I'll combine the two ideas by backing 0-0 and 1-1 scorelines.
A goalless draw is 9.20 while it's 6.80 that the two sides share a goal apiece and I'll stake half a point on each.
Ref watch
Leicestershire ref Kevin Friend heads to Lancashire to take charge on Tuesday night.
He's shown 104 yellows in 27 games this season (3.85 per match) and flashed just two red cards (no other Premier League ref has shown fewer).
In his last game at Turf Moor, he booked three Burnley players in the 1-1 draw with Chelsea while he's shown yellow to Stoke players 10 times in the three away games he's reffed them on the road this term which is well above average.
Opta stat
Burnley have gone six Premier League games in the month of April without scoring.
Recommended Bets
Back 0-0 in Burnley v Stoke @ 9.2
Back 1-1 in Burnley v Stoke @ 6.8
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