AFL Preview: Blues v Bombers

Carlton v Essendon
Sunday 3:20pm at MCG

Carlton are looking for their first win while the Bombers could be competition leaders with a win

Form

Carlton pushed Melbourne all the way until the last 10 minutes last week as they ended up losing by 22 points. It was goal for goal until late in the match when the Carlton midfield simply ran out of legs. The Blues had 2 more inside 50’s for the match but were unable to make the most of their opportunities as they managed just 20 shots from 56 inside 50 entries.

The Bombers started a little shaky up at the GABBA as the Lions took it up to them. Midway through the second term the Bombers got right on top and piled on 6 goals to 2 which proved to be the difference in the match. Orazio Fantasia continued his hot from booting 5 goals and Zach Merrett has turned into one of the hottest midfielders in the competition as he collected another 32 disposals and a goal.

Stats That Matter

– Carlton have won just 2 of the last 9 against Essendon at a POT of -64%.
– 4 of the last 5 have gone over the game total.
– Carlton are 4 from 5 ATS in daytime matches against Essendon at the MCG.
– Carlton have not scored over 100 points in their last 15 matches at the MCG against all opponents.
– Carlton average just 72.55 points per game in their last 20 matches at the MCG.
– Carlton have won 5 of their last 20 at the MCG at a POT of -28%.
– Essendon have scored over 100 points just 3 times in their last 16 matches at the MCG.
– 5 of the last 6 matches involving Essendon at the MCG have gone over the game total.
– Essendon are 7 from 9 ATS in daytime matches at the MCG against all opponents

Betting Data

2017 Line: Carlton 1-1, Essendon 2-0
2017 Over/Under: Carlton 1-1, Essendon 2-0

What To Expect

Carlton showed us last week a zone style defence, which worked well against the Demons keeping them to just 47 points at 3-quarter time. Again they are having issues at the forward end as they managed just 64 points for the match, something that coach Bolton will need to rectify quickly. With Michael Hurley in good early season form it’s hard to see the Blues scoring more than 75 points here. The Bombers will be looking to Fantasia, Daniher and Hooker to apply scoreboard pressure, which will be harder than expected given the Blues defensive structure. On paper the Bombers are the superior side across the park and should be too good for the Blues. The Wolf cannot look past the fact both sides struggle to score here at the MCG and will be taking the unders in the game total option.

How It’s Shaping Up

Essendon By 18

Recommended Bet

Under 168.5 points ($1.88)

Player Markets

This game features the two highest scoring fantasy players of season 2017 so far.

Lets start with Marc Murphy who is coming off 139 against Richmond and 125 against Melbourne for a season average of 132. In his last two against the Bombers he has 101 and 105 and given the Bombers pay no attention to opposing midfields the Wolf can see another big score here for Murph.

Zach Merrett leads all players in fantasy scoring so far averaging 134.5 points with scores of 129 against Hawthorn and 140 against the Lions. He had 34 disposals and 115 on the Blues last year and there’s no reason this form won’t continue. The Blues gave up 3 scores over 127 points last week to Melbourne and the Wolf will be all over Merrett to put in another big performance here.

Recommended Bet

Zach Merrett 120+ Fantasy Points ($1.70)